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Aug. 1 Quinnipiac University swing poll

Aug. 1 Quinnipiac University swing poll

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FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 1, 2012
OBAMA HITS 50% IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA,QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMESSWING STATE POLL FINDS
---
FLORIDA: Obama 51
 – 
Romney 45OHIO: Obama 50
 – 
Romney 44PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 53
 – 
Romney 42
President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark against Gov. Mitt Romney among likelyvoters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with wide support for his plan to hike federal incometaxes on upper-income voters, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.This is the first measure of likely voters in these swing states and cannot be comparedwith earlier surveys of registered voters. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these keystates
 – 
no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them
 – 
shows:
 
Florida:
Obama edges Romney 51
 – 
45 percent;
 
Ohio:
Obama over Romney by a slim 50
 – 
44 percent;
 
Pennsylvania:
Obama tops Romney 53
 – 
42 percent.
Support for President Obama’s proposal to increase taxes on households making more
than $250,000 per year is 58
 – 
37 percent in Florida, 60
 – 
37 percent in Ohio and 62
 – 
34 percentin Pennsylvania, the survey by Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times finds.
If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing statesof Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and
 – 
if history is any guide
 – 
into a second term in the OvalOffice,
said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“T
he president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reasonmay be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it hasbeen dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case.
 
(For a downloadable video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloydiscussing the survey, click on http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781) -more-
 
Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director,Quinnipiac University Polling Institute(203) 535-6203Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,Public RelationsPat Smith (212) 843-8026
 
2
Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times Poll/August 1, 2012
 – 
page 2
All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most importantissue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is thathe roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy
,” Brown added
.
“T
he president's strength among women is the dominant dynamic fueling his lead. It isthis dynamic that argues for Romney to pick a female running mate. On the other hand, thepresident's lead in Ohio and Florida also argues for the selection by Romney of Sen. RobPortman or Sen. Marco Rubio since he can't win the White House without the Buckeye andSunshine states and presumably these home state senators would be the most helpful
.”
Among voters who pick Romney, 10 percent each in Florida and Ohio and 9 percent inPennsylvania say they might change their mind. Among Obama supporters, 11 percent inFlorida, 13 percent in Ohio and 15 percent in Pennsylvania say they might change their mind.
Florida
Obama leads 51
 – 
44 percent among women likely voters in Florida while men go 50percent for the Democrat and 46 percent for the Republican.
Both candidates run strong among their own party’s voters while independent voters
splitwith 47 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney.Among likely voters backing Obama, 65 percent strongly favor him while 24 percent likehim with reservations and 10 percent say they pick Obama out of dislike for Romney.Among Romney voters, 49 percent strongly favor him while 29 percent like him withreservations and 19 percent say they are voting against Obama.Obama gets a 50
 – 
46 percent favorability rating, while Romney gets a split 41
 – 
42percent score.The economy is the most important issue in the election for 52 percent of Florida voters,with 22 percent who pick health care and 9 percent who cite the budget deficit.Romney would do a better job on the economy, 47 percent of Florida likely voters say,while 45 percent pick Obama. Obama is better on health care, voters say 50
 – 
42 percent.If Obama is reelected, his economic policies will hurt rather than help their financialsituation, Florida voters say 38
 – 
23 percent, with 36
 percent saying it won’t matter. Romney
gets a 31
 – 
30 percent split on whether he will help or hurt, with 34 percent saying no difference.Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 53 percent of voterssay; 19 percent want to see one or
two years of returns and 23 percent say don’t release returns.
 
-more-
 
3
Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times Poll/August 1, 2012
 – 
page 3
In
Florida’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep.
Connie Mack, the Republican challenger 47
 – 
40 percent. Independent voters go 43 percent forMack and 40 percent for Nelson.Florida voters disapprove 52
 – 
36 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.
One of the few positives for Romney in Florida is that voters are split on whether hiselection would help or hurt their pocketbook, but by 38
 – 
23 percent they say the president
s re-election would leave their wallets
thinner,’ Brown said.
 
Ohio
Women Ohio likely voters back Obama 58
 – 
37 percent, while men back Romney52
 – 
42 percent. Independent voters go 47 percent for Obama and 44 percent for Romney.Among Obama voters, 60 percent strongly favor him while 31 percent like him withreservations and 9 percent say their vote is against Romney.Among Romney voters, 42 percent strongly favor him while 35 percent like him withreservations and 22 percent say they are voting against Obama.Obama has a 51
 – 
45 percent favorability rating. Romney gets a 40 percent favorablerating and a 43 percent unfavorable score.The economy is the most important issue in the election for 48 percent of Ohio voters,with 20 percent who pick health care and 12 percent who cite the budget deficit.Obama would do a better job on the economy, 46 percent of Ohio likely voters say, while45 percent pick Romney. Obama is better on health care, voters say 48
 – 
42 percent.Obama
’s
financial policies would hurt rather than help them personally, Ohio voters say38
 – 
26 percent, while 34 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voterssay 37
 – 
26 percent, while 34 percent see no difference.Presidential candidates should release several years of tax returns, 51 percent of voterssay; 18 percent want to see one or
two years of returns and 28 percent say don’t release returns.
 
In Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State
Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican challenger 51
 – 
39 percent, with a 49
 – 
38 percent leadamong independent voters.Ohio voters approve 47
 – 
38 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing.
This is our first likely voter survey of Gov. John Kasich
, so we can’t
compare it to
earlier surveys of registered voters,” said Brown. “But the improvement in his approval rating is
so big that it
must be at least in part because of the improving economy in the state.”
-more-

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