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Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Report - 2012 08 01

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Report - 2012 08 01

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Published by VALUEWALK LLC
Greenmountain GMCR
Greenmountain GMCR

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Published by: VALUEWALK LLC on Aug 01, 2012
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05/13/2014

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GREEN MOUNTAINCOFFEE ROASTERS’Q2 AND Q32011NET SALESFIGURESLOOK ODDANDWHYIT MATTERS
Wednesday,August 12012
 
DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein reflects the views of LongShortTrader(“LST”) as of the date of publication. These views are subject to change without notice at any time subsequent to the date of issue. LST has an economic interest in the price movement of the securities discussed in thispresentation, but LST’s economic interest is subject to change without notice. All information providedin this presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as investment adviceor a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security. While the informationpresented herein isbelieved to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any datapresented. In addition, there can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in thispresentation will be realized. All trade names, trademarks, service marks, and logos herein are theproperty of their respective owners who retain all proprietary rights over their use. This presentation isconfidential and may not be reproduced without prior written permission from LST.
 
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (“GMCR”)is reportingearningslater today(Wednesday, August 1,2012)after4 PM EST and hosting a conference call at 5:00 PMEST.LST believesGMCR’s 2011 Q2 and Q3net sales numbersare mathematically unusual,and that understanding why they might besowill mattervery much today, and in the coming quarters.GMCRshareholderswould be wiseto pay closeattention.
GMCR’sReported Q2 and Q3 2011NetSalesFiguresDefile
the “Sanctity of Math
1
” 
LST examinedGMCR’spast quarterlynumbersand foundtheQ2 and Q3 2011net salesnumbersmakeno sense, relative to GMCR’s ownbusinesshistory, well-observed seasonaltrends, etc.In fact,thesetop-line numbers most resemble the funny numbers of US-listed Chinese stocksthat LST analyzed in2010 and 2011.They seem to defile the “
Sanctity of Math
.”LST noticedthe followingafter lookingthroughquarterly revenuebetween 1993-2012.(seethetables
2
below):
GMCR’sFiscalQ1 is alwaysitsstrongest quarter,basedon quarter over quarter revenue growth.(In fact the Company stated the following in its most recent 10K: “Historically, we haveexperienced increased sales of our Keurig Single-Cup Brewing systems in our1stfiscal quarterdue to the holiday season.”)
Q2 and Q3 revenue declined relative to Q1every year,
EXCEPT
Fiscal Year2011.GMCR’s Q2 and Q32011revenueactuallygrew quarter over quarter.
Said differently,theQ1salesnumber isgreater than Q2’s&Q3’s,inany givenyearexcept‘11.
This feat is all the moreabnormal, consideringQ1 2011 net saleswereatan all-time high.
GMCR Quarter over Quarter % GrowthGMCR Net Sales by Quarter (in $1,000s)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4* Q1 Q2 Q31993 --
 
-33.8%8.3% 1993 --
5,008 3,316 3,591
1994 76.4%-32.4%11.0% 1994
3,736 6,590 4,456 4,945
1995 79.5%-37.5%9.2% 1995
6,091 10,932 6,832 7,459
1996 38.0%-33.1%6.1% 1996
8,801 12,144 8,119 8,617
1997 52.2%-50.0%35.6% 1997
9,467 14,412 7,209 9,772
1998 47.4%-24.5% -1.2%1998
11,515 16,977 12,826 12,675
1999 50.4%-28.0%3.6% 1999
13,347 20,068 14,452 14,973
2000 60.8%-26.2%7.7% 2000
15,388 24,742 18,259 19,668
2001 44.9%-26.4% -5.7%2001
21,332 30,905 22,741 21,447
2002 58.0%-28.9% -0.1%2002
20,483 32,357 23,013 22,989
2003 69.0%-28.0%0.1% 2003
21,641 36,567 26,311 26,344
2004 57.4%-28.2%0.9% 2004
27,505 43,285 31,058 31,347
2005 58.6%-26.5%2.1% 2005
31,754 50,357 36,993 37,782
2006 75.4%-26.8%2.2% 2006
36,404 63,867 46,779 47,802
2007 24.6%-0.6% -0.6%2007
66,875 83,341 82,877 82,418
2008 35.9%-4.4% -2.3%2008
93,015 126,445 120,877 118,120
2009 42.4%-1.1% -0.9%2009
134,835 192,027 189,931 188,212
2010 59.8%-6.7% -1.7%2010
215,965 345,152 321,953 316,583
201153.9%12.8%10.7%2011
373,087
574,148 647,658 717,210
2012 62.7%-23.6%
TBD
2012
711,883 1,158,216 885,052
TBD*Q4 of the prior fiscal year.

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