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Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary Election Polling Study conducted Exclusively for Fox 2 News, July 22, 2012

Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary Election Polling Study conducted Exclusively for Fox 2 News, July 22, 2012

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Published by Beverly Tran
Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary Election Polling Study conducted Exclusively for Fox 2 News
Automated Poll Methodology and Statistics
Key Findings Aggregate and Cross Tabular Report
July 21 and 22, 2012
Conducted by
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B
Michigan 13th Congressional District Democratic Primary Election Polling Study conducted Exclusively for Fox 2 News
Automated Poll Methodology and Statistics
Key Findings Aggregate and Cross Tabular Report
July 21 and 22, 2012
Conducted by
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: Beverly Tran on Aug 01, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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08/01/2012

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Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 1
Michigan 13
th
Congressional District DemocraticPrimary Election Polling Study conducted Exclusivelyfor Fox 2 NewsAutomated Poll Methodology and StatisticsKey Findings Aggregate and Cross Tabular ReportJuly 21 and 22, 2012Conducted byFoster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)
B
 
 
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 2
Methodology
-
 
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)
B
, a national public opinion polling and voteranalytics consulting firm
 
based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (DearbornMichigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registeredand most likely August 2012 primary election voters in the 13
th
congressional district todetermine their voting and issue preferences on the Democratic Congressional nomination,the impact of losing congressional representation from Detroit and the impact of losingAfrican American or minority congressional representation.- This nine question automated poll survey was conducted on July 21 and July 22, 2012- A list-based sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters and votersthat fit Michigan Presidential election patterns was used for this study. The majority of thesevoters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and general electionand odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since their registration.Additionally, our call file does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to beincluded in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum participationrange.- An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if theywere very likely to vote in the August Primary Election.- Thirty-six thousand seven hundred and seventy-one (36,771) adults were called, and 643respondents participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 1.77%.- Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted to the geographical regions and politicalparticipation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reporting purposes, wewill focus our findings on the following issue-based categories:A.
 
Baseline for 13
th
congressional district Democratic primary nominationpreference.B.
 
Impact of potentially losing congressional representation from the city of Detroit.C.
 
Impact of potentially losing African American or minority congressionalrepresentation from Michigan.- The margin of error for this polling sample is 3.84% with a confidence level of 95%. Ourpolling study produced sub-populations within each of the surveyed election contest. Resultswithin the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and sub-population group as it exist.
 
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 3
Key Findings Analysis
Our polling study reflects a strong likelihood for current Detroit congressmanJohn Conyers to retain his congressional seat. In doing that, he would maintainrepresentation from Detroit and Minority representation from Michigan. We ballot-testedall five candidates for the Michigan 13
th
Congressional District Democratic Primary. Thewinner of the Democratic primary in southeastern Michigan Congressional campaignstraditionally wins the November general election, so the Democratic primary iscomparable to a general election contest. We found that Congressman Conyers has asignificant lead over all five candidates, who also are elected officials themselves.Conyers leads State Senator Glenn Anderson 48.21% to 20.68%, a 27.53 point margin,with 22.24% of the respondents being undecided. The overall results for all fivecandidates are listed below:The 2012 Michigan 13
th
Congressional District Democratic Primary election will be heldin August. Who are you most likely to vote for in the primary for US House of Representatives?(Current Democratic Congressman John Conyers): 48.21%(State Senator Glenn Anderson): 20.68%(State Senator Bert Johnson): 2.33%(State Representative Shanelle Jackson): 4.51%(Westland School Board member John Goci): 2.02%(Undecided): 22.24%

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