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CA-09 Lake Research for Jerry McNerney (July 2012)

CA-09 Lake Research for Jerry McNerney (July 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Aug 01, 2012
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08/01/2012

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1726 M Street, NW
|
Suite 1100
|
Washington, DC 20036
|
T 202.776.9066
|
F 202.776.9074WASHINGTON, DC
|
BERKELEY, CA
|
NEW YORK, NY
|
LOS ANGELES, CA
|
RICHMOND, VAwww.lakeresearch.com
To:Interested PartiesFrom:David Mermin and Maxx CaicedoRe:Poll results in Californias 9
th
Congressional DistrictDate:July 31, 2012
1
A recent Lake Research Partners survey of likely voters in California’s 9
th
Congressional District shows
Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney with asubstantial+16-point lead over his Republican challenger Ricky Gill, 49%to 33%.Among registered Decline to State/Other voters,McNerney has an evenwider lead of +24 points.
In a district with a 7-point Democraticregistration advantage, Gill will have to do far better among theseindependent voters to make the race competitive.Thenewly drawn 9
th
Districtcontains most of theold 11
th
District whichMcNerney won 3 times against well-funded, better-known and politicallyseasonedRepublican opposition, including the Republican wave year of 2010, andalsoincludes new Democratic territory in central Stockton andContra Costa County.President Obama is leading Mitt Romney in CA-09 by a similar margin of 53% to 38% and remains popular with 9
th
District voters, with 56%favorability.
*****
1
Lake Research Partners conducted a telephone survey of 504 likely general election voters in California’s9
th
Congressional District from July 8-11, 2012, using professional interviewers. The margin of error is +/-4.4%. The sample was modeled on likelyNovember turnout in CA-09 and included 45% registeredDemocrats, 38%registeredRepublicans, and 18%registeredDTS/Other voters.
 
Celinda Lake
President 
Alysia Snell
Partner 
Michael Perry
Partner 
David Mermin
Partner 
Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D.
Partner 
Daniel R. Gotoff 
Partner 
Joshua E. Ulibarri
Partner 
Tresa Undem
Partner 
Rick A. Johnson
Senior Vice President 
Robert X. Hillman
Chief Operating Officer 

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