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MI-Sen (R) FMWB for Fox 2 News (July 2012)

MI-Sen (R) FMWB for Fox 2 News (July 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Aug 01, 2012
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Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 1
Hoekstra has establishment edge but not insurmountable margin in thefinal days before the Republican primary for United States Senator, per(FMW)
B
poll.
July 31, 2012
Contact: Eric Foster313-333-7081 CellEmail: efoster@fostermccollumwhite.com  Contact: Tarek Baydoun313-729-3737 CellEmail: baydounconsulting@gmail.com
Contact: Jacqueline McCollum313-574-5384 CellEmail:  jmccollum@fostermccollumwhite.com
Former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra has a healthy advantage going into theAugust 7
th
Republican Primary for U.S. Senate. In spite of the advantage, Hoekstrahas not yet sealed the deal and has allowed enough room for late charging ClarkDurant to pull together a primary voting coalition of Tea Party, Independents,African Americans and others similar to Governor Rick Snyder in 2010.
 In the national battle between the Republican Party and Democratic Party forcontrol of Congress, the Michigan Senate Seat held by two term Senator DebbieStabenow is considered attainable to most observers. Early on, it looked as if PeteHoekstra would have an easy road to the Republican nomination. However missteps incampaign messaging and the surprising challenge of businessman and Cornerstone
School’s founder Clark Durant has taken the air of inevitability from Hoekstra.
In spite of significant name identification and institutional organization advantage, Hoekstra doesnot have the insurmountable margin one would expect. With the Republican primary lessthan one week away Pete Hoekstra has a 39.76% to 23.59% lead over Clark Durant, with15.31% selecting another candidate and 24.04% being undecided. With candidate andleading Tea Party advocate Gary Glenn throwing his support to Durant and late spendingby a Pro Durant Super PAC, this race should go down to the wire.Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)
B
, a national public opinion polling andvoter analytics consulting firm
 
based in Michigan and representing the combinedresources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and BaydounConsulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling randomsurvey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 general election voters todetermine their voting and issue preferences for:
 
The baseline for likely United States Senate general election match ups.
 
The baseline for the Republican senate nomination primary contest (filterquestion subset of total aggregate universe).
 
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 2
 
Voters’ preference for political control of the Michigan House of 
Representatives.This ten question automated poll survey was conducted on July 28, 2012 and wascommissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit. The margin of error for the respondents whofiltered to the Republican Nominating Ballot Test section is 3.83% with a confidencelevel of 95%.
 
To view the reports of our polling studies on the United States Senate andother political topics for Fox 2 News online, please click the following link -http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/category/237819/politics 
Key Findings Analysis
 – 
United States Senate Republican PrimaryElection Contest
We asked our aggregate universe a filter question to determine their intention toparticipate in the August Republican Primary for United States Senate. Six hundred andfifty-six (656) respondents identified that they will either vote in the primary or havealready voted by absentee ballot.Our polling study reflects that the August Primary Election contest for theRepublican nomination for United States Senate will be very competitive. FormerCongressman Pete Hoekstra has a sizable lead against Cornerstone Schools founder Clark Durant and other candidates, yet nearly a quarter of the Republican primary electorate isundecided. The interesting fact we identified in our findings is that there is significantinterest among Democratic and independent self identified voters in participating in theRepublican Senate primary. This is comparable to the interest that Democrats andindependents had in participating in the 2010 Republican Gubernatorial Primary, whichpropelled businessman Rick Snyder to victory over traditional Republican establishmentcandidates. The data suggests that these groups are interested primarily because of Clark Durant versus the establishment candidate Hoekstra. We also found that 12.84% of therespondents who have planned to participate in the Republican Senate Primary are nonwhite, including 7.19% African American respondents. Additionally, we found that Clark Durant is leading Hoekstra among Tea Party supporters. The Tea Party has waged astring of successful intra-
 party contest against establishment and moderate Republican’s
across the country. The data suggests that the Michigan primary may shape up as theNebraska and Texas senate primaries where Tea Party supported candidates upsetestablishment Republican leaders.
 
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 3
We ballot-tested the Republican primary for the United States Senate contest. We
tested the other candidates on the ballot as a generic another candidate.” We found that
former Congressman Pete Hoekstra has a 16.17 point lead versus Clark Durant with24.04% of the voters being undecided and 15.31% selecting another candidate on theballot. The aggregate results for the ballot test matchup are listed below:
State-wide Republican Primary Respondents Aggregate Results (Weighted toprojected age, gender and ethnicity of electorate)
 
 – 
656 Respondents MOE +/-3.83%
 
Question #4:
 
The 2012 Republican Primary for United States Senate will be held on August 7, 2012. If you plan on voting or have already voted in the Republican Primary, who is your choicein this election? (Only for respondents to question 3, selection 1 & 2)(Former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra): 39.76%(Republican Cornerstone Schools Founder Clark Durant): 23.59%(Another candidate): 15.31%(Undecided): 24.04%

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