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MDfME Hart Poll Memo[1]

MDfME Hart Poll Memo[1]

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Published by Tom Kludt

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Published by: Tom Kludt on Aug 02, 2012
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08/02/2012

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1724 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20009 202-234-5570 202-232-8134 FAX www.hartresearch.com
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TO: All Interested PartiesFROM: Hart Research AssociatesDATE: August 1, 2012RE: Results Of Recent Maryland Poll On Marriage Equality
 
A new statewide poll conducted in Maryland by Hart Research Associates finds themarriage equality ballot initiative to be in a very strong position to pass inNovember. We interviewed 504 likely voters statewide, as well as 515 African-American likely voters statewide, from July 24 to 28, 2012. (The margin of errorfor each survey is
±
4.5 percentage points).In the trial heat for the referendum vote, 54% of Marylanders say they would vote
for 
the law that allows gay and lesbian couples to legally marry, while 40% say theywill vote
against 
this law. This 14-point support margin is a marked improvementover the eight points we measured this past March (51% vote for, 43% voteagainst).In addition to the 54% majority who would vote FOR marriage equality, we are alsoencouraged by the growing INTENSITY among supporters.
 
Strong “FOR” support is now 43%, strong “AGAINST” is 35%—an eight-pointadvantage for marriage equality. Previous polling, even those finding marriageequality with a lead, show a more EVEN divide between strong FOR and strongAGAINST voters—in March of this year it was 39% strongly for, 38% stronglyagainst.
 
In a separate survey question, we asked Marylanders the importance of themarriage equality referendum. It is notable that among the near-majority of Maryland voters who rate the issue as EXTREMELY important, 66% would voteFOR marriage equality and just 33% would vote AGAINST.In the subgroup analysis of the referendum vote, support for the referendum hasincreased among both white and African-American voters. White voters went fromfavoring the referendum by 11 points in March (53% to 42%) to favoring it by 13points today (54% to 41%); African-American voters went from opposing thereferendum by nine points (40% to 49%) to being evenly divided between supportand opposition today (44% to 45%).

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