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August 2, 2012
New York’s 18
Status of the Contest for U.S. Congress
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
A new poll shows that first-term incumbent Nan Hayworth is in deep trouble, managing no better than a statistical tie against a relatively unknown (for now) challenger. In the initial trial heat,Hayworth receives 48 percent support, under the 50 percent threshold for a well-positionedincumbent, while Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney received 45 percent.Some of Hayworth’s issues stem from relatively low name recognition, but moreconsequentially, she struggles among voters who know her, posting miserable job ratings. After we provided survey respondents balanced, positive descriptions of the candidates, theDemocrat surges to a 51 to 45 percent lead.This survey was prepared and supervised by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Callingtook place July 25-29, 2012. These findings, based on a sample survey of 500 registered andlikely November 2012 voters, are subject to a sampling error of +/- 4.38 at 95 percentconfidence interval.
The district is competitive in partisan terms
. Voters divide fairly evenly in the trialheat for President (49 percent Obama, 47 percent Romney) and in the number of self-ascribed Democrats and Republicans (30 percent versus 31 percent).
Nan Hayworth is not well known and not popular among voters who know her
.Only 77 percent recognize the incumbent district-wide, but more troubling for her, nearlyhalf (49 percent) rate her job performance negatively (19 percent poor, 30 percent justfair), and just 38 percent respond favorably. The challenger, not surprisingly at this pointin the campaign and in this media market, has some work to do introducing himself (37percent recognition for Sean Patrick Maloney).
After we provide neutral and positive descriptions of the candidates, using wordsand language they use in their campaigns, Sean Patrick Maloney vaults to a 51percent majority of the vote share