passenger numbers at an AAGR of 5.3% between 2007 and 2011.
On the freight side, internationalairfreight is forecasted to increase at an AAGR of 4.8%.However, the airline industry and these forecasts remain exposed to several risks, rangingfrom temporary negative impacts (e.g. security scares), high fuel prices and slower than expectedgrowth in the global economy. These risks mean that volatility cannot be discounted. However, thefundamental factors driving growth for both passengers and airfreight remain reasonably positive.
3. ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH AVIATION
The global community is now increasingly facing the problems of the success of aviationindustry: the environmental impacts of aviation are growing. At the global level, greenhouse gas(GHG) effects and depletion of the ozone layer due to high altitude emissions are problems. At aregional level, acidification, eutrophication and formation of tropospheric ozone by emissions of airpollutants are the concerns. At a local level, particularly in the immediate vicinity of airports, concernsfocus on the potential health and environmental effects of noise and air pollution from emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NO
), volatile organic compounds and particulates.The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that aviation industry’sshare of global carbon dioxide (CO
) emissions will grow from 2% today to 3% by 2050. Thisevolution is based on a growth in CO
emissions of 2-3% per year with an annual traffic growth of 5%.In spite of its relatively modest share of carbon emissions, the aviation industry has a responsibility toensure it is environmentally efficient.Environmental problems associated with aviation include:1)
Aircraft noise emissions2)
Local air quality3)
Aircraft engine emissions4)
Disposal of the end-of-life aircraftICAO’s work on the two problems, aircraft noise and engine emissions, is undertaken by theOrganization’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP), which reports to and makesrecommendations to the Council of ICAO. CAEP and its predecessor committees have been workingon aviation noise emissions for some 30 years and on aircraft engine emissions for some 20 years.
3. AIRCRAFT NOISE EMISSIONS3.1 Description of the Problem
The perception of noise by people is dependent on such factors as its intensity, its frequencyand the length of time they are exposed to it. Aircraft noise, including night noise, is associated withsleep disturbance, long-term adverse health effects and learning difficulties. Much of the research,however, is either contradictory or inconclusive.However, according to analysis of the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection(CAEP), using the ICAO Model for Assessing the Global Exposure to the Noise of Transport Aircraft(MAGENTA), approximately 30 million people worldwide in 1998 were exposed to levels of aircraftnoise recognized as noise nuisance (i.e. DNL55). Approximately 3.5 million people were exposed tohigher levels (i.e. DNL65) that require noise mitigation provisions. Disturbance by aircraft noisecontinues to be as the single most important environmental issue around airports.
3.2 Sources of Aircraft Noise
The main environmental noise impacts of aviation include aircraft landing & take-off, taxiingand auxiliary power unit (APU) use; aircraft servicing and maintenance; and noise from airportoperations such as engine testing, the use of ground power units and construction activities. Noisedisturbance, measured in terms of people exposed to a given noise level, is greater at large airportsclose to key populations. Paradoxically, these airports are the most attractive to the traveling public.
3.3 Future Threats
Although noise levels have been declining due to the introduction of new quieter aircraft andthe retirement of older aircraft, these improvements are being offset by the growth in air traffic and theencroachment of conurbations upon the airport.