1Center or American Progress | Next Steps in Syria: A Look at U.S. Priorities and Interests
Next Steps in Syria: A Look at U.S.Priorities and Interests
Ken Sofer August 14, 2012
Introduction
Syrian Presiden Bashar al-Assad and wha remains o his loyal miliary orces are cur-renly engaging in wha some are calling he “moher o all batles,”
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a large-scale arillery and ground assaul on Syria’s larges ciy, Aleppo. Te norhwesern ciy o 2.1 millionpeople has quickly become he primary batleground beween sae orces and he rebel-lion agains he Assad regime’s rule in Syria.Te ongoing batle or conrol o Aleppo comes on he heels o a bombing in Damascusha killed hree o Assad’s op securiy aides,
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he deparure o Ko Annan as U.N.special envoy o he counry,
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he deecion o Syrian Prime Miniser Riyad Farid Hijab,
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and he downing o a Syrian gher je earlier his week.
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Tese recen urns o evens—including he expansion o he conic o regime srong-holds and he eecive end o prospecs or a diplomaic soluion o he conic—mark an imporan new phase o he rebellion. Tis new phase poses he mos serious hreao he Baah Pary’s 42-year rule o Syria, leaving open he possibiliy or more exrememeasures rom an increasingly desperae regime.Te Unied Saes has so ar rerained rom aking an acive role in Syria, despie calls by some or miliary inervenion agains he Assad regime.
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U.S. resrain was he righcall in he early phases o he rebellion, bu he recen escalaion in ghing poses greaerrisks o key U.S. ineress and will likely lead o greaer U.S. involvemen.Tough he overwhelming majoriy o he inernaional communiy and U.S. policy-makers agree ha Assad mus be removed rom power, many policy recommendaionsincorrecly use Assad’s removal as he sole limus es or success. Failing o address heeec o such policies on he range o U.S. ineress in Syria could have disasrous resulsor he Unied Saes and is regional allies.
2Center or American Progress | Next Steps in Syria: A Look at U.S. Priorities and Interests
U.S. policymakers should ocus heir atenion on ve major prioriies in Syria: –Prevening he spillover o conic ino neighboring counries, including miigainghe eec o reugee ouows –Securing Syria’s chemical weapons sockpile and prevening heir use –Eliminaing he space or Al Qaeda and oher erroris groups o operae –Saeguarding he counry agains collapse ino secarian violence –Preparing or an eecive and sable poliical ransiionTis issue brie will analyze each prioriy, why hey mater o U.S. sraegic ineress, andhow each is aeced by he curren siuaion in Syria, and will recommend opions orU.S. policymakers o address hese criical ineress.
Preventing the spillover of conflict into neighboring countries,including mitigating the effect of refugee outflows
For U.S. policymakers, prevening he violence and insabiliy in Syria rom expand-ing o is neighbors, where he Unied Saes has imporan sraegic ineress, will be adicul challenge and one ha is largely ou o heir hands. Bu eors o assis he largereugee populaions in neighboring counries, along wih inelligence and counerer-rorism coordinaion o preven cross-border atacks, can a leas reduce he likelihood o he Syrian crisis becoming a regional crisis.For he mos par, he violence wihin Syria so ar has presened a grave humaniariancrisis bu no a direc hrea o key U.S. sraegic ineress in he Middle Eas. Ta’ssaring o change, as violence begins o aec Syria’s neighbors—urkey, Lebanon, Iraq,and Jordan—wih he poenial or he conic o reach our allies in Israel. Te UniedSaes possesses ew poliical, economic, or miliary ineress in Syria, bu i does possesssuch ineress in every single one o Syria’s neighbors and canno aord he possibiliy o regionwide insabiliy and violence. Widespread violence in a neighboring counry inherenly carries some poenial orspillover, bu he large number o reugees, he semisecarian naure o he conic inSyria, and he poenial or ransnaional erroris atacks make he likelihood o he con-ic drawing in neighboring counries such as urkey, Lebanon, and Jordan signicanly more likely.Te reugee siuaion in Syria is impossible o unie rom he dangers o spillover con-ic in Syria’s neighbors. Te massive inux o reugee populaions—some o whichare in reugee camps, some o which are in homesays—places signican srain on helocal economies o border communiies and has pulled Syria’s neighbors urher ino heconic, binding heir uures o he resoluion o his crisis.
For U.S. policymakers,preventing theviolence andinstability in Syriarom expanding toits neighbors, wherethe United States hasimportant strategicinterests, will be adicult challenge.
3Center or American Progress | Next Steps in Syria: A Look at U.S. Priorities and Interests
Te size o he reugee populaions in Syria’s neighbors poses dauning logisical andresource problems. Te U.N. High Commissioner or Reugees repors 135,640 reg-isered Syrian reugees, including 50,227 in urkey, 39,600 in Jordan, and 36,040 inLebanon as o Augus 13.
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Tis number, however, vasly underesimaes he numbero acual reugees in Syria’s neighbors since so many reugees are no regisered wihhe commission. Unocial esimaes place he number o reugees closer o 140,000 in Jordan and 90,000 in Lebanon,
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a dauning ask or any naion o handle. Despie hechallenge o accommodaing so many reugees, Syria’s neighbors have kep heir bordersopen o reugees.More resources are needed o serve he humaniarian needs o hese reugee communi-ies and o preven heir presence rom desabilizing he ragile economies o heir hoscounries. Te Unied Saes should encourage wealhier, acively engaged counriessuch as Qaar and Saudi Arabia o help und he reugee commission’s eors. Te U.N.High Commissioner or Reugees and oher major reugee organizaions should in urnprovide direc cash assisance o Syrian reugees, which limis he nancial srain on hoscommuniies and avoids he requen logisical diculies o delivering ood, bedding,medical supplies, and oher aid producs o reugee communiies. Te leadership rolehe Unied Saes can play in mobilizing aid money rom he Persian Gul and Europeand in pressuring counries o coninue heir humaniarian eors or Syrian reugeesshould no be underesimaed.Te inux o 90,000 predominanly Sunni Syrian reugees has also reignied many o hesecarian divisions in neighboring Lebanon. While he rebellion in Syria is no inher-enly secarian, he reliance o he Assad regime on Alawie suppor creaes percepionso secarian conic. Alawies, he Shia Muslim sec rom which he Assad amily hails,comprise roughly 13 percen o Syria’s oal populaion.
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Sunni Arabs, who comprise 74percen o Syria’s populaion,
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are believed o suppor he ani-Assad rebellion. Oherminoriy groups such as he Druze, Chrisians, and Kurds remain divided in heir sup-por or he regime or he rebellion.Gun batles along hese secarian lines have eruped hroughou Lebanon, paricularly inripoli, which is home o large Sunni and Alawi communiies.
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Te secarian divide inLebanon maches he counry’s long, complex relaionship wih he Assad governmenin Syria. Assad is one o Shiie poliical pary and miliia Hezbollah’s mos imporansupporers; he Syrian miliary mainained a 14,000-roop presence in Lebanon or 30 years;
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and Damascus is considered by many o be complici in he assassinaion o ormer Lebanese Prime Miniser Rak Hariri (a Sunni) in 2005.
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I is unclear wha eec, i any, he inux o Syrian reugees will have on Lebanon’sdomesic poliics. One cauionary ale, however, may be he inux o Palesinian reu-gees ollowing he 1948 Arab-Israeli War, which upse he delicae secarian balance o Lebanon and conribued heavily o he counry’s 25-year civil war.
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Next Steps in Syria
Ken Sofer analyzes U.S. priorities in Syria and recommends options for U.S. policymakers to address these critical interests.
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