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REGIONAL SPILLOVER EFFECTSOF THE IRAQ WAR W. Andrew TerrillDecember 2008
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in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in thepublic domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United StatesCode, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted.
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ii*****The views expressed in this report are those of the author
and do not necessarily reect the ofcial policy or position of the
Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S.Government. This report is cleared for public release; distributionis unlimited.*****The author would like to thank Mary J. Pelusi, Dr. PhilWilliams, Dr. Norman Cigar, Dr. Steven Metz, Dr. Dallas Owens,Dr. Douglas Johnson, and Sarah E. Womer for useful and insightfulcomments on earlier drafts of this work. All mistakes in this workof fact, omission, interpretation and speculation are, nevertheless,entirely my own.*****Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should beforwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army WarCollege, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244.*****All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications are availableon the SSI homepage for electronic dissemination. Hard copiesof this report also may be ordered from our homepage. SSI’shomepage address is:
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ISBN 1-58487-373-6
 
iii
FOREWORD
The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors
inuencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East
and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly
dynamic and uid war have sometimes forced U.S.
policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot besafely postponed at the expense of long-term strategicthought. Such a technique, while understandable,
cannot continue indenitely as an approach to policy.
Long-term planning remains vital for advancingregionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S.drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must includedealing with current and potential “spillover” from theIraq war. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrillpresents ideas, concerns, and strategies that can help
to ll this gap in the literature and enrich the debate on
the actual and potential spillover effects of the Iraq warthat will face U.S. policymakers, possibly for decades.Regional spillover problems associated with the Iraqwar need to be considered and addressed even in theevent of strong future success in building the new Iraq.In less optimistic scenarios, these issues will becomeeven more important. Spillover issues addressed herein
include: (1) the ow of refugees and displaced persons
from Iraq, (2) cross-border terrorism, (3) the potential
intensication of separatism and sectarian discord
among Iraq’s neighbors, and (4) transnational crime.All of these problems will be exceptionally importantin the Middle East in the coming years and perhapsdecades, and trends involving these issues will needto be closely monitored. Of these problems, Dr. Terrillclearly is especially concerned with the spread ofsectarian divisions which, if not properly managed,can have devastating regional consequences. This
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arslan4h

hi dear... hope u will be fine n gud.. will u plz share this document wid me. thnx wid best regards

reply06 / 09 / 2009
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