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PurplePoll Aug15 Final-1

PurplePoll Aug15 Final-1

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Published by The Hill Newspaper

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Published by: The Hill Newspaper on Aug 15, 2012
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08/15/2012

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In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obamais elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on thePurple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updatedregularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll offers a uniquelens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election.The PurplePoll has built a reputation for accurate, unbiased andcutting-edge polling and analysis. It has been cited on television, in print,and online by sources that span the political spectrum, including:
MSNBC,Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate,Politico,
the
National Review 
and dozens of others. And we will continue tobring you this analysis through the November election, and beyond.For more information,contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
@
]or Bruce Haynes[
@
@
 
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A small bump for Romney, but nota game change.
In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romney’sselection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, theGOP ticket has drawn even with the Democratic ticket.Today, Romney and Ryan lead the Obama-Bidenticket by a point (47% to 46%), an improvementfrom July when President Obama led Romney by2 points, 47% to 45%.The Romney-Ryan ticket is fueled by an11-point advantage among independents. Thisrepresents an increase from July, when Romneyheld a 5-point margin over Obama among thatkey group.In our Purple Predictor states, Ryan’s addition tothe ticket has had a mixed impact on the race.
@
PURPLE
ANALYSIS
Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, astate we have seen bounce between the campaignsover the last few months. Today, the GOP ticketleads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to Julywhen President Obama led the state 48% to 45%.Romney also gained ground in Virginia – today,he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage inthe race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by2 points in July.However, President Obama has seen improvementsin Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama-Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase froma 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democraticticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), comparedto a 3 point deficit in July.Taken as a whole, these data indicate a smallbump in the immediate aftermath of the Ryanannouncement. Nonetheless, it is also the firstsign of positive momentum for the Romney campaignthat we’ve seen in the PurplePoll in the lastfew months.
Ryan is the best liked of the four candidates,and his selection has bolstered Romney’s image.
At 45% to 39%, Paul Ryan is the only member ofeither major party ticket who currently has higherfavorables than unfavorables. He is extremelywell-liked among Republicans (80%/9%), andindependents have an overall favorable opinionof him (46%/37%). Over the next few weeks,the two campaigns will be racing to define himamong those 16% that don’t have an opinion.At +6 in Purple States overall, Ryan’s imagetrails Sarah Palin’s national image just aftershe was announced as the vice Presidentialcandidate in 2008. A CNN poll among likelyvoters at the time of her pick showed her witha net favorable rating of +17. Among Republicans,Sarah Palin had a net favorability of +77, 6 pointsbetter than Ryan’s +71.Ryan’s personal image is at this point betterthan his Democratic counterpoint: 41% have afavorable view of the Vice President, comparedto 48% unfavorable.
 
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@
PURPLE
ANALYSIS
Romney’s personal image appears to haveimproved following the announcement: 45%favorable, 48% unfavorable. While still netunfavorable, this represents a substantialimprovement from July, when he was net -8.For the first time in the PurplePoll we testedObama’s favorability (we have been testing jobperformance), and we found him to have a verysimilar rating as Romney: 47% favorable, 49%unfavorable.Taken together, these measures indicate thatthe vice presidential roll-out has successfullyprovided modest momentum for the GOP ticketmoving toward the convention. For those seeking agame change event (in either direction), thiswasn’t it.
Romney has advantages on the economy andchanging Washington, while shifting theconversation to Medicare helps President Obama.
By a 3-point margin, Purple state voters believethat Romney and Ryan have a better plan “to reducethe deficit, create jobs, and get the economymoving again” (46% to 43%). This advantage issubstantially larger among independents: 48%to 34%. This result is directly linked to voters’views of the current state of the economy: just29% believe that the economy is getting better.Additionally, by a 6-point margin, voters in thesekey swing states believe that Romney and Ryanare more likely “to bring real change to Washington,”a margin that is +17 among independents.However, the Romney-Ryan ticket has a signicantdisadvantage on Medicare. Asked which of thetwo tickets is more likely to protect Medicare,Purple State voters choose Obama-Biden by an8-point margin (48% to 40%). On that issue, theDemocratic ticket holds a 2-point advantageamong independents, 43% to 41%.While the inclusion of Paul Ryan has providedpositive movement for the ticket overall, a debateabout Medicare reform appears likely to harmthe GOP ticket in the longer term.

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