A small bump for Romney, but nota game change.
In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romney’sselection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, theGOP ticket has drawn even with the Democratic ticket.Today, Romney and Ryan lead the Obama-Bidenticket by a point (47% to 46%), an improvementfrom July when President Obama led Romney by2 points, 47% to 45%.The Romney-Ryan ticket is fueled by an11-point advantage among independents. Thisrepresents an increase from July, when Romneyheld a 5-point margin over Obama among thatkey group.In our Purple Predictor states, Ryan’s addition tothe ticket has had a mixed impact on the race.
Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, astate we have seen bounce between the campaignsover the last few months. Today, the GOP ticketleads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to Julywhen President Obama led the state 48% to 45%.Romney also gained ground in Virginia – today,he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage inthe race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by2 points in July.However, President Obama has seen improvementsin Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama-Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase froma 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democraticticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), comparedto a 3 point deficit in July.Taken as a whole, these data indicate a smallbump in the immediate aftermath of the Ryanannouncement. Nonetheless, it is also the firstsign of positive momentum for the Romney campaignthat we’ve seen in the PurplePoll in the lastfew months.
Ryan is the best liked of the four candidates,and his selection has bolstered Romney’s image.
At 45% to 39%, Paul Ryan is the only member ofeither major party ticket who currently has higherfavorables than unfavorables. He is extremelywell-liked among Republicans (80%/9%), andindependents have an overall favorable opinionof him (46%/37%). Over the next few weeks,the two campaigns will be racing to define himamong those 16% that don’t have an opinion.At +6 in Purple States overall, Ryan’s imagetrails Sarah Palin’s national image just aftershe was announced as the vice Presidentialcandidate in 2008. A CNN poll among likelyvoters at the time of her pick showed her witha net favorable rating of +17. Among Republicans,Sarah Palin had a net favorability of +77, 6 pointsbetter than Ryan’s +71.Ryan’s personal image is at this point betterthan his Democratic counterpoint: 41% have afavorable view of the Vice President, comparedto 48% unfavorable.