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1Ct  Aca Pg | Ca’ 2012 Pat Lap Tat
China’s 2012 Party Leadership Transition
Key Faces to Watch
Philip Ballentine and Ken Sofer August 16, 2012
Introduction
Predicing China’s nex round o pary leadership appoinmens is no always an easy game o play, paricularly his year, as our colleague Melanie Har deails in her new paper, “China’s Real Leadership Quesion.” Her analysis demonsraes why know-ing who may or may no make i ino he remaining seas on China’s ruling SandingCommitee o he Chinese Communis Pary is no as imporan a his poin in imeas is predicing wheher he new Sanding Commitee as a whole will mee he seriouseconomic and poliical challenges acing heir naion in he coming decade.Te op wo posiions were setled monhs ago, and are highly unlikely o change.Curren Vice Presiden Xi Jinping is slaed o become pary general secreary while VicePremier Li Keqiang is slaed o become premier, he highes posiions in he pary andhe governmen, respecively.Te res o he Sanding Commitee is much less cerain. Te Chinese poliical sysemhrives on predicabiliy and we can make airly accurae guesses abou who will bepromoed ino hese poss based on he posiions, senioriy, and acional aliaionso he curren candidaes. Tis year, however, he ongoing scandal surrounding ormerCommunis Pary high-ier Bo Xilai—who ran one o China’s bigges municipaliies incenral China beore a rapid downall—is adding an addiional elemen o uncerainy.Bo’s now deniely ou o he running or a sea on he Sanding Commitee, bu his down-all makes predicing who will ll some o he seven o nine available seas dicul.o disrup expecaions a his poin in he game would sugges ha i is no business asusual wihin he pary, and ha is no a message Beijing wans o send. We can make aconden predicion abou our likely members o he Sanding Commitee— Xi Jinping,Li Keqiang, Li Yuanchao, and Wang Qishan— bu deermining who will ll he remaininghree o ve seas is more dicul. Te mos likely candidaes are divided beween he Hu Jinao acion o Communis Youh League members and he Jiang Zemin acion o so-called princelings, individuals wih amily imes o China’s revoluionary elie.
 
2Ct  Aca Pg | Ca’ 2012 Pat Lap Tat
Below is a lis o he 10 mos likely candidaes o ll he Sanding Commitee headingino he Chinese Communis Pary’s leadership ransiion his all.
Xi Jinping
Current position:
 Vice presiden, China People’s Governmen; vice chairman, Cenral Miliary Commission; member, PoliburoSanding Commitee
Age:
59
Factional ties:
Princeling (son o Xi Zhongxun, ormer vice premier);considered o be a Jiang Zemin proégéTe son o a high-ranking People’s Liberaion Army general, Xi Jinping worked on a arm in rural Shanxi province or six years, unil he age o 22, aer his aher was imprisoned during he Culural Revoluion. Ximanaged o leave he arm, join he pary and graduae rom he pres-igious singhua Universiy wih a degree in chemical engineering. Aer graduaion, Xi worked in adminisraive roles or he People’s Liberaion Army. Aer serving in increasingly senior pary and army roles in Hebei, Fujian, and Zhejiangprovinces, Xi was promoed o he Sanding Commitee, became pary secreary o Shanghai, and ook on a series o new iles ha suggesed he would succeed Hu Jinaoas China’s nex pary general secreary and People’s Governmen presiden.
1
  Xi’s amily ies place him closer o he Jiang Zemin acion, which implies ha hisapproach o economic developmen will be more marke-riendly and ocused onproecing wealh han some o his Hu Jinao-aliaed peers.
2
Bu Xi has been relaively opaque abou how he would ac economically or poliically, which has conribued ohis posiive sanding among boh acions and enabled his rise o he general secreary.Mos recenly, in 2008 Xi was appoined o vice presiden o he Chinese People’sgovernmen. Since hen he has raveled o Lain America, Europe, Asia, and Americaon diplomaic missions.
3
Xi is married o a amous Chinese olk singer, Pei Liyuan, andheir daugher is currenly sudying a Harvard Universiy. Xi Jinping will almos cerainly be appoined o pary general secreary his all, China’shighes leadership pos.
AP PhoTo/The QuAd CiTy Times, Kevin e. sChmidT
 
3Ct  Aca Pg | Ca’ 2012 Pat Lap Tat
Li Keqiang
Current position:
Execuive vice premier, China’s Sae Council (henaional cabine); member, Poliburo Sanding Commitee
Age:
57
Factional ties:
uanpai (Youh League) member; considered o be aHu Jinao proégé Aer working in rural Anhui or our years aer graduaing rom highschool, Li joined he pary and was acceped o Peking Universiy inhe “Class o 1977.”
4
Ta year China re-opened many o is universi-ies aer nearly a decade o closure during he Culural Revoluionand 5.7 million sudens compeed or only 273,000 universiy spos.In he early 1980s Li worked in he Communis Youh League’s 11-person governing body direcly under Hu Jinao and alongside uure Poliburo members Liu Yandongand Li Yuanchao. Hu Jinao nominaed Li or promoion in he league several imes andhe succeeded Hu as he head o he league in 1993.
5
 Following his ime wih he Communis Youh League, Li was sen o Henan provinceo gain more provincial experience. Given Li’s close ies o Presiden Hu and his work in Henan, as premier he may ocus on income equaliy issues such as he provision o  beter social services.
6
Li will no be able o deermine policy programs on his own,however, and will insead require consensus wih Xi Jinping and oher leaders.Li’s sin as pary secreary and provincial governmen leader in China’s coasal Henanprovince was hauned by a serious AIDS crisis caused by unscrupulous blood plasma buyers.
7
Li’s provincial governmen covered up he crisis and prevened journaliss rom visiing sick villagers. Hu Jinao unsuccessully lobbied or Li o succeed him as China’snex pary general secreary, bu managed o ge his proégé he premiership.Li Keqiang will almos cerainly be named he nex premier o China, he naion’ssecond-highes pos.
AP PhoTo/LAurenT FieveT
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