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Roman TargoszEuropean Copper Institutetargosz@pcpm.pl
A briefing from the Poznan C
January 14 2009
 
www.leonardo-energy.org
Today’s schedule
Is a new Kyoto agreement possible andwhen?
The positions of various countries - isa fair climate deal possible?
Is science providing sufficient evidence,are measures agreeable?
Technology needs and projections on shortand long term
CDM and other support mechanisms
Adaptation
 
www.leonardo-energy.org
Background
Global atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have increased markedly as a result of human activity since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial levels spanning manythousandsof years, as determined from ice cores. Current atmospheric carbondioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations far exceed those spanning the last650,000 years.
The world is already seeing many changes that point towards an increasingly warmplanet. For example, 11 of the last 12 years (1995– 2006) rank among the 12hottest years since 1850. The warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13°C perdecade) is nearly twice that of the last 100 years and the total temperature increasefrom the period 1850– 1899 to the period 2001– 2005 has been 0.76°C.
Unmitigated climate change will have a significant impact in many areas: the risk of floods and droughts is projected to increase in many regions – as much as 20 percent of the world’s population lives in areas that are likely to be affected byincreased flood hazard by 2080; sea levels are expected to rise between 0.2 m and0.6 m, or possibly more, by 2100; tropical and extra-tropical cyclones will becomemore intense; increased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries andother resources could affect hundreds of millions of people; the impact on agriculturewill also be severe; millions of people are likely to face malnutrition; and increases ininfectious disease vectors are also expected.
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