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Florida

Florida

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Published by annelaura04

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Published by: annelaura04 on Aug 21, 2012
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08/22/2012

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Florida ResultsFlorida Results 
For 8/20/2012For 8/20/2012 
Executive Summary
On the afternoon of August 20th, 2012, Gravis Marketingconducted a survey of 728 likely voters in the state of Florida. The questions covered preference for a givenpresidential candidate, the Florida U.S. Senate Race be-tween Connie Mack and Bill Nelson, and Governor Rick Scott’s performance rating. The full list of questions aregiven on page 5. Overall, Romney and Obama remain ina statistical dead heat, with the August 20th poll givingRomney about a 3% lead (48% to 45%), with a margin of error of about 3.8%.
Analysis
 How Does the V.P. affect the Likely Vote?
Romney recently announced his Vice Presidential pick,Congressman Paul Ryan. Is Ryan affecting the vote?Well, adding Ryan to the ticket increases Romney’s leadfrom 48%-45% to 49%-45%. What about adding HilaryClinton to the V.P. part of the ticket — does she increaseObama’s chances? No, actually adding Clinton to theticket increases Romney’s take by about half a percent-age point and decreases Obama’s take by about a fifth of a percentage point.
 Does Adding Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson HelpOut Obama?
The addition of Gary Johnson into the voting mix could
 
 
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Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 8/20/2012For 8/20/2012 
materially affect the outcome of the election, with Johnsontaking about 3% of the overall vote, with about 1.7% fromRomney and 0.5% from Obama.
 How Does the Presidential Election Breakdown by Reli- gious Affiliation?
There chart dealing with the religious affiliation issue is onpage 4. On the whole, Romney wins the two biggest groups— Catholics and Protestant Christians and Obama wins thenon-affiliated and Jewish voters.Breaking this down further by age group reveals that Romneygenerally wins the vote of the older religious voter, whileObama comes out ok among younger religious voters in cer-tain categories. For instance, Obama wins all age groupsamong Roman Catholics, but because Romney wins the 50+group, he wins the Catholic vote as a whole. On the otherend of the spectrum, Romney wins all Protestant age groups,while Obama takes all the non-affiliation age groups.
 How is Rick Scott Doing?
Overall, Rick Scott comes in with a 35% approval rating anda 38% disapproval rating. The age and religious breakdownof the Rick Scott question is on page 3. Perhaps not surpris-ingly, Rick Scott has a higher approval than disapproval rat-ing among all religious groups and exhibits the reverseamong non-religiously affiliated respondents.
Conclusion
These brief discussions and graphical depictions only scratchthe surface of all the cross tabulations available with the re-cent survey. A full list of all the questions posed is listed onpage 5 and all cross tabulations follow this executive sum-mary.
Gary Johnson EffectObama Romney Johnson Unsure-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
Effect of Gary Johnson
Gary Johnson Effect
-1.7%-0.5%-0.1%3.0%
 
 
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Florida ResultsFlorida Results For 8/20/2012For 8/20/2012 

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