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AZ-02 OnMessage for Martha McSally (Aug. 2012)

AZ-02 OnMessage for Martha McSally (Aug. 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Aug 22, 2012
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08/22/2012

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 From: Wes Anderson, OnMessage Inc.Date: August 14, 2012Re:
Key Findings in Arizona’s 2
nd
Congressional District
The following survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District.
Telephone interviews were conducted August 7-8, 2012. This survey consists of 400 likely generalelection voters and was stratified by county to reflect historic voter trends. The margin of error for thissurvey is +/- 4.9%.KEY FINDINGS
 
Ballot: Barber 50% - McSally 45% with 5% undecided.
 
The key to this race is found in the hard re-elect question for Barber. General Election voters arecurrently undecided on whether to send him back to Congress - 40% say he deserves another term,while 41% say give someone else a chance.
 
Ticketsplitters are truly split on the ballot
 – 
38% say another term for Barber, while a full 36% saygive someone else a chance.ANALYSIS
 
This race promises to be a very close contest all the way to the end.
 
Barber and his Democratic allies spent nearly $2 million in advertising to elect him in the recentspecial election. However, it appears his image has not grown in favor with general election voters.In fact, this survey shows, Barber has had little, if any, movement in improving his position for re-election.
 
Martha McSally who spent a fraction of what Barber spent on advertising, months prior, is withinstriking distance.
 
McSally has gained considerable support among voters since her Primary run in April
 
Furthermore, Barber won against a polarizing opponent in an election in the shadow of GabrielGiffords. This survey suggests Barber will be judged on his own voting record. Contentment is not a
word anyone could rightly associate with the voters of Arizona’s 2
nd
Congressional District. The lastelection may have been a legacy election but this one is about change in direction.

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