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Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times PollFor release: Thursday, August 23, 20123:00 AM EDT
**ALL RESULTS ARE EMBARGOED UNTIL THURSDAY , AUGUST 23rd at3 am EDT * *
Battleground Poll: Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin
August 15-21, 2012
President Obama maintains his lead in the battleground of Ohio, but now faces close races inFlorida and Wisconsin. Voters in all three states have net favorable ratings of CongressmanPaul Ryan, but Ryan’s Medicare plan is opposed by majorities of voters. The President isviewed as better at handling Medicare than Romney in all three states.
Wisconsin
: The race in Wisconsin has tightened. Ryan’s selection to the ticket is viewed as anet positive here, especially among Republicans. President Obama’s edge is now just twopoints (within the poll’s margin of error). Wisconsin voters say Romney would be better on theeconomy.
Florida:
The President maintains a small lead here, but the race has narrowed slightly (withinthe margin of error). Voters say the President would do a better job on Medicare and healthcare. Still, Romney holds a double-digit lead among seniors – his largest in these three states –and has a slight edge on handling the economy.
Ohio:
The President continues to lead, thanks to a 13-point advantage among women andbacking from young voters, while Romney wins the support of independents and has an 8-pointlead among seniors. In Ohio, Mr. Obama and Romney are even on the economy, but thePresident has the advantage on Medicare and taxes, while Romney leads on the budget deficit.
2012 Vote for President
(Among likely voters)Florida OhioWisconsinNow8/1/2012Now8/1/2012Now8/8/2012Obama49%51%50%50%49%51%Romney464544444745Don’t know 5 4 4 4 3 4Few likely voters are undecided in these battleground states, and nine in 10 say their minds aremade up. Only one in 10 says they could change their minds about who to support.Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate appears to have energized somelikely voters in Ryan’s home state. 31% of voters say Romney’s pick of their native son makesthem more likely to support Romney in the fall; fewer say they would be less likely to do so. Still,Ryan’s selection makes no difference to nearly half of Wisconsin voters.
Impact of Ryan Pick on Vote for Romney
(Among likely voters)FloridaOhioWisconsinMore likely 20% 21% 31%Less likely 19 20 22No difference 58 56 45
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59% of Wisconsin Republicans and a third of independents say Ryan’s place on the ticketmakes them more likely to support Mitt Romney.Ryan’s selection matters less to voters overall in Florida and Ohio, but four in 10 Republicans inthose states say the Ryan pick makes them more likely to back Romney. About a quarter of independents in those states say that.Overall impressions of Ryan in these battleground states are more positive than negative, buthe is unknown to about four in 10 likely voters in Florida and Ohio. Ryan is most familiar toWisconsin voters and gets his highest favorable ratings in his home state.
Views of the VP Candidates
(Among likely voters)Florida OhioWisconsinBiden RyanBiden RyanBiden RyanFavorable 37% 35%40% 32%35% 44%Unfavorable 44 2940 2742 35Haven’t heard 183619 4022 20Vice President Joe Biden, who recently made some controversial remarks at a campaign event,receives net negative ratings among voters in Florida and Wisconsin, and Ohio voters aredivided.Impressions of these men are colored by partisanship: majorities of Democrats in all threestates view Biden favorably, while most Republicans have positive opinions of Ryan.In all three battleground states, voters are inclined to think both vice presidential candidates arequalified to serve as president if that became necessary. Ryan does best on this measure in hishome state where he is most known.
Qualified to Serve as President if Necessary?
(Among likely voters)Florida OhioWisconsinBiden RyanBiden RyanBiden RyanYes 41% 37%43% 32%41% 44%No 36 2334 2233 29Don’t know enough213922 4524 26The poll asked about Ryan’s job performance in his home state of Wisconsin; 52% of likelyvoters approve of the job he is doing as a member of Congress, while 33% disapprove. 15%don’t have an opinion.
Medicare
 As a member of Congress, Ryan has proposed privatizing Medicare for those under the age of 55 while providing them with a fixed amount of money towards purchasing health insurance.Majorities of voters in all three states prefer a system in which Medicare would continue as it istoday, with the government providing seniors with health insurance.
What Should Medicare Look Like in 10 Years?
FLOHWIContinue as is62%64%59%Switch to voucher system282732
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Overall, these voters have a positive assessment of the Medicare system: in each state, threein four think Medicare benefits are worth the cost of the program to taxpayers.
Are Medicare Benefits Worth the Cost to Taxpayers?
FLOHWIYes76%75%74%No151617Still, most voters in all three states would support some reductions to Medicare in order toreduce the federal budget deficit, though just one in 10 would support major reductions.
Reductions in Medicare to Reduce the Deficit?
FLOHWIMajor reductions11%10%11%Minor reductions484847No reductions353634
In the States: Who’s Supporting WhoFlorida: Obama 49%, Romney 46%
The President now has just a three-point edge over Romney in the Sunshine state (within thepoll’s margin of error). Mr. Obama continues to lead among women (53%-41%), Hispanics(61%-31%) and younger voters. Meanwhile, Romney has a six-point lead over the Presidentamong men (51%-45%) and continues to lead with seniors (55%-42%). Seniors were 22% of Florida’s electorate in 2008, and Republican John McCain won them by eight percentage points.The race in Florida remains close among independents, a key voting group (48% for Romney,44% for President Obama, within the poll’s margin of error). The race was close among themearlier this month as well; 47% for the President, and 46% for Romney.
Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 47%
The selection of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate has narrowedthe race compared to earlier this month. The President has a 2-point edge over Romney in theBadger State, compared to six points earlier in August. Mr. Obama won Wisconsin by 14 pointsin 2008. He has a 9-point advantage among women, while Romney has a 5-point edge withmen.Similar to the Wisconsin poll released earlier this month, President Obama does well amongWisconsin’s white voters with college degrees, but Romney gets the support of those without adegree. Romney also has a large lead among white Catholics in Wisconsin (58% to 38%).
Ohio: Obama 50% Romney 44%
President Obama is running ahead of Romney in the battleground state of Ohio by six points,the same lead he held earlier this month. The President continues to enjoy a large lead amongwomen (54%- 41%), while men are almost split: 48% Romney, 46% Obama. Seniors arebacking Romney (52%-44%), while younger voters are supporting Mr. Obama. Romney has theedge with independents (48%-43%).
The Economy and other Issues
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