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2011 Impact Evaluation - Tanzania

2011 Impact Evaluation - Tanzania

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Published by Plant With Purpose
Plant With Purpose's triennial assessment and impact evaluation. Most recently conducted in 2011.
Plant With Purpose's triennial assessment and impact evaluation. Most recently conducted in 2011.

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Published by: Plant With Purpose on Aug 22, 2012
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2011 Impact Evaluation
TanzaniaFloresta-Plant With Purpose
Key Points
major changes in target communities are increased savings & income caused largely by theimpact of VICOBA groups, and a decline in values, caused mainly by outside influences suchas globalization
top three institutions working most closely with communities are VICOBA, the church/religion,and Floresta
Floresta target households show improved conditions in economic, environment, and spiritualindicators compared to non-target households
50% of Floresta member households say they have sufficient savings to meet household needsfor 6 months, compared to only 6% of non-member households
90% of Floresta member households have planted some trees in the past 12 months, comparedto 52% of non-member households
Areas immediately around Floresta target villages show positive vegetation change, comparedto the larger region which shows negative vegetation change due to drought
almost all Floresta-trained households have shared their knowledge with friends andneighbours, and 94% of households say their neighbours are applying this knowledge
Acronyms
BRAC-Bangladesh Rehabilitation Assistance CommitteeKINAPA-Kilimanjaro National Park KNCU-Kilimanjaro Native Coffee UnionMODIS-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer  NBS-National Bureau of StatisticsTANESCO-Tanzania Electrical Supply CompanyTASAF-Tanzania Social Action Fund NASA-National Aeronautics & Space Agency NDVI-Normalized Difference Vegetation IndexSACCOS-Savings and Credit CooperativesVEP-Village Education ProjectVICOBA-Village Community Bank 
Introduction
Measuring progress is a critical step in the development process. Trees are planted, loans are made,trainings are done, but how do these activities affect farmers? Do they make a difference? Is thecondition of rural families improving? Measuring change is not easy, and being able to attribute changeto one factor or other, such as program activities, is even more difficult. This study measures theeconomic, environmental, and spiritual condition of rural families in Tanzania, in the region of Kilimanjaro and where possible, connects change in those conditions to Floresta-Tanzania programactivities.
 
Methodology
This evaluation draws data from four different sources:1. Participatory workshops with farmers who are both Floresta program participants and non- participants2. A quantitative household survey of program participants and non-participants3. An analysis of vegetative cover using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)4. Tanzanian government census dataComparisons are made among the various data sources in order to develop a more reliable picture of the current condition of rural families in the project target area of Tanzania.All indicators for all four sources were selected using the Plant With Purpose theory of change. Thetheory of change delineates the way in which the organization works towards long term change, andmeasurable indicators are assigned to the various outcomes in the theory of change pathways. Thetheory of change is depicted below.Participatory Workshops: Participatory tools are used in community development not only as a usefulway of collecting information, but more importantly as a means to help communities think about their own resources and challenges, and develop their own plans and goals. In this study, participantsrepresenting all sectors of the community—men, women, young, old, farmers, merchants, trades people-- discussed issues in the community using two participatory tools:
 
i) Institutional Analysis—community members listed the organizations/institutions both localand external who have been present in the area during the past 3 years. Community membersassigned a ranking to each institution based on the institution`s perceived amount of resources,and rated each institution based on how satisfied community members were with the services provided by each institution.ii) Change Matrix--participants identified key changes, positive or negative in their communities in the past 3 years and discussed the causes and consequences of those changesaccording to the matrix shown below. Changes may be associated with the project or unassociated with the project, and are totally dependent on what the participants identify as keychanges. If many changes are identified, the long list was recorded, and participants identified amaximum of 3 changes to analyze in detail.ChangeCausesConsequencesLessons learnedBoth workshop tools were repeated with a target group—those community members that work with the program—and a non-target group—those community members who have not workedwith the program. In the case of Tanzania, these workshops were conducted separately in theMarangu region, and the Malindi region.Household Survey: a quantitative survey was conducted on 200 households in Kilimanjaro Regionwithin the Floresta project target area from Aug. 18-Sep. 9, 2011. The sample was divided into twogroups, 103 families who have participated in the Floresta program, and 97 families who have not participated—the comparison group. Sample size was based on the approximate population of thetarget area, and selected to maintain a margin of error of less than 8%. The survey collectedinformation on basic household characteristics, economic activities, environmental conditions, socialconditions, and spiritual conditions. Data was entered using an on-line form in order to reduce error,and data analysis was done using the R statistical system (R development core team, 2011). Resultswere expressed primarily as population means, and proportions, and statistically tested using the Welchtwo-sample T-test, or Pearsons Chi-squared test where appropriate.Vegetation Analysis: The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to provide anestimate of vegetative cover in the project area for the three year evaluation period, 2008-2011. NDVIis widely recognized to be highly correlated with both vegetation cover and vegetation health, andrelies on the difference in plants ability to absorb light from the visible red band and the infrared band. NDVI is sensitive to all vegetation types, and does not distinguish directly between trees and other types of vegetation, however, high NDVI values are typically highly correlated with tree cover. Thisstudy used satellite data from MODIS sensors (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) using30 day composited data at a 1 km resolution (NASA, 2011). NDVI values were averaged from three periods, dry season (Sep.), wet season (Apr.), and the transition between wet and dry season (Jun.).These averaged values were taken as representative for the year, and for two annual periods, 2008 and2011. These annual values were then averaged by subwatersheds within the Floresta project area andchange over the 3 year period measured.Tanzanian Government Census Data: Various statistics were drawn from the population and housingcensus of 2002 (TBS, 2002) for comparison to data collected in this study.

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