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Heinrich Poll Memo 082412

Heinrich Poll Memo 082412

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Published by Matthew Reichbach
A polling memo of an internal poll show Rep. Martin Heinrich leading Heather WIlson
A polling memo of an internal poll show Rep. Martin Heinrich leading Heather WIlson

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Published by: Matthew Reichbach on Aug 24, 2012
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08/24/2012

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1901 L Street, NW Suite 702, Washington, DC 20036 | Tel: 202-621-1411 | Fax: 202-621-1427gbastrategies.com
To: Interested PartiesFrom: GBA StrategiesDate: August 24, 2012
Heinrich Lead Growing in Race for N.M. Senate
In the race to succeed retiring U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman, Democrat Martin Heinrichhas expanded his lead and is starting to pull away from Republican Heather Wilson. Our latest poll shows Heinrich leading Wilson by 8 points. The fundamentals of the race are not good for Wilson and are getting worse as the campaign progresses. Despite significant advertising fromher campaign and outside groups, her personal standing is slipping and Heinrich is consolidatinghis support.As the following table illustrates, Heinrich has led in every poll conducted by any pollster this year, but a lead that was 4-5 points is now 8-9 points.
Date Heinrich-WilsonSamplesize/methodologyPollster/Sponsor
August 21
48-41 (+7) 500 LVs/IVR Rasmussen
August 14-19
51-44 (+8)*700 LVs/live dialerson landline and cellGBAStrategies/MartinHeinrich for Senate
August 5-7
50-41 (+9)502 LVs/live dialerson landline and cellFM3/LCV
July 13-16
48-43 (+5) 724 RVs/IVR PPP
July 9-10
51-42 (+9) 1295 LVs/IVR We Ask America
June 28-July 1
49-45 (+4)503 LVs/Live dialerson landline and cellFM3/LCV
April 19-22
48-43 (+5) 526 RVs/IVR PPP
April 3
46-42 (+4) 500 LVs/IVR Rasmussen
February 14
45-43 (+2) 500 LVs/IVR Rasmussen
January 2-7
45-44 (+1)400 RVs/Live dialersPOS/FM3/ColoradoCollege
*Due to rounding, the Heinrich lead is +8

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