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Ct 08282012

Ct 08282012

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Published by Alfonso Robinson

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Published by: Alfonso Robinson on Aug 28, 2012
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08/28/2012

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FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 28, 2012
McMAHON BY A NOSE IN CLOSE CONNECTICUT SENATE RACE,QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;OBAMA TOPS ROMNEY BY 7 POINTS
Connecticut likely voters put Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon on the rightside of a 49 – 46 percent too-close-to-call U.S. Senate race against Democratic U.S. Rep.Christopher Murphy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.This is the first look at likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack)University and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.In today’s survey, McMahon’s 54 – 42 percent lead among men swamps Murphy’s small50 – 46 percent lead among women. McMahon leads 88 – 10 percent among Republicans and 55 – 40 percent among independent voters, while Murphy takes Democrats 82 – 16 percent.McMahon leads among all income groups, except voters making $50,000 to $100,000 per year. Voters under 35 years old back Murphy 51 – 43 percent, while McMahon leads 54 – 42 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old. Voters over 55 are split 48 – 48 percent.Connecticut voters give McMahon a 47 – 35 percent favorability rating, while Murphy getsa 38 – 30 percent favorability, with 32 percent who don’t know enough about him to form anopinion.“The poll is good news for Linda McMahon. In our first likely voter poll in Connecticut,McMahon has a 3 point advantage in a too-close-to-call-race. Her edge is due to her double-digitlead among independent voters and being close among women, a group she struggled with in her 2010 run,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.“McMahon has worked on her image in the last two years, and it shows. Voters like her more now than they did when she faced Richard Blumenthal in 2010.”
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Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.Director, 
 
Q
uinnipiac University Poll/August 28, 2012 – page 2
President Barack Obama holds a narrow 52 – 45 percent lead over Gov. Mitt Romney, hisRepublican challenger, among Connecticut likely voters. Twelve percent of Obama voters and 12 percent of Romney backers say they might change their mind.The gender gap is yawning with women backing Obama 59 – 38 percent while men back Romney 53 – 45 percent. Independent voters are divided with 49 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Obama leads among all income groups except for a 49 – 49 percent splitamong voters making more than $100,000 per year. Voters in all age groups back the president.Obama gets a 51 – 46 percent favorability while Romney has a negative 41 – 44 percent.Vice President Joseph Biden gets a negative 38 – 43 percent favorability, compared to a negative30 – 33 percent for U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan. Another 37 percent don’t know enough about Romney’srunning mate to form an opinion.Connecticut voters say 43 – 35 percent that Biden is qualified to be president, compared to29 – 26 percent, with 44 percent undecided, for Ryan.The economy will be “extremely important” to their presidential vote, 58 percent of voterssay, higher than any other issue. Medicare will be “extremely important,” 41 percent say.Romney would do a better job on the economy, Connecticut voters say 49 – 44 percent.Obama would be better on Medicare, voters say 51 – 41 percent.“Although President Barack Obama is ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney, his 7-point lead is a far cry from his 23-point victory in 2008 over John McCain. We shouldn’t, however, expect to see thecandidates campaigning in Connecticut, which hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1988,” Dr.Schwartz said.“This smaller than expected margin for Obama could affect the Senate race. The Murphycampaign is hoping to benefit from Obama’s coattails, but right now they are not very long.”From August 22 – 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,472 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey,Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and the nation as a public service and for research.
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1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates wereBarack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (Ifundecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners)LIKELY VOTERS..............................................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men WomObama 52% 6% 92% 47% 45% 59%Romney 45 93 7 49 53 38SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - -DK/NA 2 - 1 4 2 3COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS.......Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+Obama 56% 49% 63% 51% 52% 49% 61% 51% 51%Romney 43 47 35 45 46 49 39 46 46SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - - - - -DK/NA 1 3 2 3 2 1 - 2 21a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change yourmind before the election?LIKELY VOTERS.......CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1Tot Obama RomneyMind made up 87% 87% 88%Might change 12 12 12DK/NA 1 1 12. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enoughabout him?LIKELY VOTERS..............................................Tot Rep Dem Ind Men WomFavorable 41% 85% 10% 42% 48% 34%Unfavorable 44 5 75 42 39 47Hvn't hrd enough 14 9 14 14 12 16REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 2COLLEGE DEG ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME... AGE IN YRS.......Yes No <30K 30-50 50-100 >100K 18-34 35-54 55+Favorable 41% 41% 30% 40% 42% 47% 34% 41% 43%Unfavorable 49 40 43 45 44 43 44 44 44Hvn't hrd enough 9 18 24 14 13 9 22 14 11REFUSED 2 2 4 1 1 2 - 2 2
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