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AUG12B Pre Convo

AUG12B Pre Convo

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Published by CBS_News
CBS News Poll For release: Tuesday, August 28, 2012 6:30 PM EDT DRAFT Heading into the Conventions, the Presidential Race Remains Close August 22-26, 2012



As the two parties prepare to hold their nominating conventions, President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency. Eight in 10 voters say their minds are made up. Romney is seen as the candidate who would do a better job on the economy, while voters think Mr. Obama will do more to help t
CBS News Poll For release: Tuesday, August 28, 2012 6:30 PM EDT DRAFT Heading into the Conventions, the Presidential Race Remains Close August 22-26, 2012



As the two parties prepare to hold their nominating conventions, President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency. Eight in 10 voters say their minds are made up. Romney is seen as the candidate who would do a better job on the economy, while voters think Mr. Obama will do more to help t

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Published by: CBS_News on Aug 28, 2012
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11/29/2012

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CBS News PollFor release: Tuesday, August 28, 20126:30 PM EDTDRAFTHeading into the Conventions, the Presidential Race Remains CloseAugust 22-26, 2012
 As the two parties prepare to hold their nominating conventions, President BarackObama and Republican Mitt Romney are effectively tied in the race for the presidency.Eight in 10 voters say their minds are made up.
Romney is seen as the candidate who would do a better job on the economy, whilevoters think Mr. Obama will do more to help the middle class.
Eight in 10 Republicans are at least satisfied with Romney’s choice of Paul Ryan as hisrunning mate, including 36% who are enthusiastic.
 A slight majority of voters says the Obama Presidency has brought more disappointment(55%) than satisfaction (45%). Most Republicans are disappointed, but so are 18% of Democrats.
The State of the Race
Heading into the parties’ conventions, President Obama and rival Mitt Romney are in a tightrace among registered voters who lean towards a candidate; Mr. Obama has just a one pointlead (within the poll’s margin of error).
2012 Vote for President
(Among leaned registered voters)Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney45Undecided 6Wont vote 2Four years ago, the race was also close heading into the conventions. Barack Obama led JohnMcCain by 45% to 42%.The President continues to lead among women -- by 10 points in this poll -- while Romney has anine point lead among men. The race is close among independents, who favor Romney by justone point - within the poll’s margin of error.
Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were…?
(Among leaned registered voters)ObamaRomneyTotal46%45%Men40%49Women51%41Republicans 5%90Democrats89% 7Independents40%41
 
White evangelicals, white Catholics, and conservatives overall back Romney by large margins,while liberals, moderates, and non-whites support Barack Obama. Lower income voters overallsupport the President, though white working class voters – white voters without a collegedegree earning less than $50,000 a year – support Romney. Younger voters and unmarriedwomen – including those who are divorced, separated, widowed – support the President, whileRomney leads among seniors and among women who are currently married.
Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were…?
(Among leaned registered voters)ObamaRomneyTotal46%45%Married women44%48Unmarried women60%3118-3450%3735-4441%5045-6448%4365+38%55Liberal82%12Moderate53%38Conservative21%70College grad52%41No degree43%46Whites38%53Non-whites73%15White evangelicals22%71White Catholics34%55Income <$50K51%38Income $50K-$100K45%49Income $100K+39%56White working class37%51Just over half of the voters who back the President say they enthusiastically support him – far larger than the share of Romney’s supporters who say the same (35%). A third of the voterswho back Romney say they support him with reservations, but 22% back him because theydislike the President. Just before the conventions in 2008, the pattern was similar: Obamavoters were nearly twice as likely as those backing Republican John McCain to describethemselves as enthusiastic supporters.
Enthusiasm for Candidate
(Among leaned Obama/Romney voters)Romney VotersObama VotersEnthusiastic35%59%Support with reservations3425Party nominee 8 3Dislike other candidate2211
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There is some room for movement in the race – but not much. About four in 5 voters say theyhave made up their minds which candidate to support, but for about one in 10 the race is not yetover, as they say it’s too early and their minds could still change. Similar percentages of Obamaand Romney voters could change their minds.
Mind Made Up Whom to Support?
(Among leaned registered voters with a candidate choice)TotalObama VotersRomney VotersYes82%84%82%Too early141114Voters’ attention to the presidential campaign has not changed much since April, when MittRomney all but locked-up his party’s nomination. Now, 45% are paying a lot of attention,including slightly more Republicans (47%) than Democrats (42%). Attention to the campaignwas higher in August 2008.
Attention to the Campaign
(Among registered voters)Now4/20128/20088/2004 A lot45%43%51%48%Some34353641Not much/none20221211
The President’s Performance
The conventions will undoubtedly offer reviews, from both partisan sides, of the ObamaPresidency thus far. A slight majority of voters says that the Obama Presidency has broughtmore disappointment (55%) than satisfaction (45%).Democrats are satisfied, but more apt to be just
somewhat 
satisfied (53%) than
very 
satisfied(29%). 18% of Democrats are disappointed.Most independents (58%) are disappointed. Republicans, perhaps unsurprisingly, are verymuch so.While most voters who are disappointed with the Obama presidency are not supporting Mr.Obama this fall, 14% still plan to vote for him.
Feelings About Obama Presidency So Far?
(Among registered voters) AllDemsRepsIndsVery satisfied13%29% 1% 8%Somewhat satisfied3253 734
Total Satisfied45%82% 8%42%
Somewhat disappointed21132624Very disappointed34 56634
Total Disappointed55%18%92%58%
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