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M E M O R A N D U M
TO: House Majority PACFROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupDATE: August 28, 2012RE: Recent California 7th CD Survey
From August 21 to 23, 2012, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted asurvey among a representative sample of 401 likely general election voters (themargin of error is ±5 percentage points) in California’s 7th CD.
Our surveyresults indicate that this district is one of the best Democratic pick-upopportunities in the nation. Democrat Ami Bera is well positioned toknock off longtime Republican incumbent Dan Lungren. Bera already isTIED with Dan Lungren in the initial trial heat. Bera benefits from aDemocratic tilt in the district and has much more room to grow
.When asked whom they would support in the initial trial heat for U.S.Congress, Bera and Lungren are locked in a dead heat:Three factors indicate that Ami Bera has the momentum and a good prospect of victory in his rematch with Congressman Lungren.First, Dan Lungren’s ratings on several key measurements are below the50% mark. For example, although Lungren has 90% name recognition, his “positive” rating barely outpaces his “negative” rating (38% to 36%).Second, Ami Bera will have the advantage of solid “top-of-ticket” dynamics: President Obama is defeating Mitt Romney by 52% to 44% in the 7thCD.
Initial Trial Heat
Ami Bera 47Dan Lungren 47Undecided 6