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Introduction to Probability
Probabilityis a way to describe thelikelihoodof something happening. You usually encounter probabilityoften without even realizing it. For example, when the weather report says thatthere is a 60% chance of rain today, that is anexpressionof probability. And if someone saysthat you have a 50-50 chance of guessing a coin toss - that too, is anexpressionof probability. While these are everyday occurrences that deal with probability, when we talkaboutprobabilitymathematically, we usually write probabilities either infractionor decimal form. In general, we say that theprobabilityof something happening is theratioof the number of  ways that thing can happen to the total number of ways for all things to happen. The thingwe want to happen is usually called the event. So we will need to know the number of waysfor the event to happen and the total number of ways for all events to happen. In a simplerform, For example, let’s think about rolling a die (this is singular for dice). A die has six sides and anumber from 1 to 6 appears on each side. We usually assume that we have a “fair die” meaning that each number has an equal chance of occurring. Let’s talk about theprobabilityof rolling a 4. In this case, rolling a 4 is the
event
we areinterested in. There is only one way for this to happen, so 1 is the numerator of the ratio.Because there are six possibilities, 6 will be the denominator of the ratio. We usually expresstheprobabilityof rolling a 4 as: The six possibilities that we use as the denominator of theratioare usually referred to as the
sample space
. The samplespaceis where you list all the possible outcomes for anexperiment. Our
experiment
was to roll the die one time. Sometimes listing the samplespaceis very helpful in knowing how many outcomes there are in an experiment. Othertimes, like with rolling a die, you can just think about how many ways something canhappen. And still other times, there may be so many possibilities that you don’t want to listthem and you can’t just think about them easily. We won’t worry about those situations here,but be aware of all the ways you can deal with a samplespace(it’s simple and you don’t haveto list it, it’s helpful to list all the possibilities, it’s too complicated to list every possibility). It is interesting to note that theprobabilityof rolling any number 1 - 6 will always be sinceall numbers have an equal chance of happening. It is also important to note that if you addall the probabilities together, you will get 1. When you add all the probabilities associated with all the events of an experiment, you willget one. This is an important rule to remember when working with probabilities. Knowing that all the probabilities associated with anexperimentequal one can save sometime in working some problems. What if a problem asked you to find theprobabilityof NOT rolling a 3? That means you wouldbe looking for theprobabilityof rolling a 1, 2, 4, 5, or 6. You would need to find all five of those individual probabilities and add them up. But an easier way is to work with thecomplement. The
complement
is a way of finding theprobabilityof an event NOThappening. So theprobabilityof NOT getting a 3 is found by finding theprobabilityof 3 and then subtracting from 1. or . 
Introduction to Probability http://www.algebralab.org/lessons/lesson.aspx?file=Algebra_StatProba...1 of 4 1/14/2009 9:49 PM
 
Another important rule deals with the type of numbers that are acceptable as aprobabilityanswer. Probabilities can only take on values from 0 to 1. Keep in mind that 0 and 1 areacceptable values for aprobabilityanswer. Mathematically this is represented as. Aprobabilityof 0 means that an event is
impossible
and aprobabilityof 1 means that anevent is
certain
. For example, if we go back to our die problem, theprobabilityof rolling a 7 is zero becauseyou can never roll a 7 with just one die. Theprobabilitythat you are used a computer to access this lesson is 1 because the only wayto see these lessons is on-line or by printing the web page. Either way, it is certain that youused a computer to access this lesson. P(use a computer to access this lesson) = 1 If an event is neither certain nor impossible, then itsprobabilityshould be somewherebetween 0 and 1. If you perform a computation for aprobabilityand your answer is negativeor larger than 1, then your answer is incorrect. This will be useful in later lessons as youperform more complicated computations. In addition to the die examples already discussed there are several other common types of problems that you will come across when working with probability. 
Common Examples:
Marbles in a Boxi.Suppose there are 3 red marbles, 6 blue marbles, and 7 green marbles in a box.Theprobabilityof pulling out a red marble is 3/16. There are 3 red marbles whichgives us our numerator of 3 and there are 16 total marbles which gives us ourdenominator.Cardsii.In order to solve problems involving cards, you should learn some basic factsabout a deck of cards if you are not familiar with cards. There are 52 cards in a deck.The 52 cards are broken up into 4 suites (spades, clubs, diamonds, hearts).Each suite has 13 cards (Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. Jack, Queen, King).There are 4 of each type of card in the deck (4 aces, 3 10’s, etc.)Two suites are red (diamonds and hearts).Two suites are black (spades and clubs). So a simpleprobabilityproblem that is very common would be to ask what is theprobabilityof pulling out a 6. Thisprobabilitywould be 4/52 which could then be simplified to 1/13. Notice there are 4 six’s in a deck out of a total of 52 cardswhich is how we get 4/52. You should always simplify your final answer whenexpressing a probability.Diceiii.We have looked at some examples that deal with rolling one die. However it isvery common to see problems that involve rolling two dice. When rolling two dice, there are 36 possibilities. It is usually helpful to consider afirst die and a second die to keep the two distinct. The possibilities listed beloware ordered pairs indicating the number of the first die and then the number onthe second die. To find the sum, simply add the two numbers.(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5)
(2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4)
(3, 5)
(3, 6)(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3)
(4, 4)
(4, 5) (4, 6)(5, 1) (5, 2)
(5, 3)
(5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)(6, 1)
(6, 2)
(6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)So if we want to find theprobabilityof rolling a sum of 8, we need to find all thepossible ways to roll an 8 (there are 5) out of the total possibilities which is 36. 
Introduction to Probability http://www.algebralab.org/lessons/lesson.aspx?file=Algebra_StatProba...2 of 4 1/14/2009 9:49 PM
 
Therefore, P(rolling sum of 8) = 5/36
Example Group #1
The first three problems use the following scenario: There are 12 marbles in a box.Five of the marbles are white, seven are green, and one is purple.What is theprobabilitythat you pull out a white marble?
What is your answer?
 
P(white) =
What is theprobabilitythat you pull out a green marble?
What is your answer?
 
P(green) =
What is theprobabilitythat you pull out a purple marble?
What is your answer?
 
P(purple) =Example Group #2
The next three problems deal with cards.What is theprobabilityof drawing an ace from an ordinary deck of cards?
What is your answer?
 
P(ace) =
What is theprobabilityof drawing a red card from an ordinary deck of cards?
What is your answer?
 
P(red) =
What is theprobabilityof drawing a club from an ordinary deck of cards?
What is your answer?
 
P(club) =Example Group #3
The next three problems deal with dice.
Introduction to Probability http://www.algebralab.org/lessons/lesson.aspx?file=Algebra_StatProba...3 of 4 1/14/2009 9:49 PM
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yAlhashim

Mr. arvindasulbha, you may download it now through scribd.com, I have add the option to download for all my documents.

reply02 / 10 / 2009
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