FL CD-26 August 2012 Poll
To: Joe GarciaFr: Pete Brodnitz, BSGRe: Recent
general election polling in Florida’s 2
6
th
Congressional DistrictDate: August 27, 2012In our recent poll of likely voters in
Florida’s 2
6
th
Congressional District, Joe Garcia holds a significant leadand is well positioned for victory in November, potentially giving the Democrats a pick up.
Garcia leads by 9% and receives the majority of Independent votes
Voters prefer Joe Garcia over David Rivera by 9%, 49% to 40%, with 11% undecided. Garcia is doingbetter among his base than Rivera: Garcia receives 87% of the vote among Registered Democrats, while78% of Republicans support Rivera. Among Independents, Garcia leads by 27% (53% Garcia, 26%Rivera, 21% undecided).If the November 2012
election for Congress were held today and the candidates were just …
for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] Which candidate do you lean toward?
AllParty RegDem Ind Rep
Difference +9 +79 +27 -67
Democrat
Joe Garcia 49 87 53 11
Republican
David Rivera 40 8 26 78
Don’t know
11 5 21 11
Voters prefer a generic Democratic candidate and would re-elect President Obama
Despite the fact that Republicans hold an advantage on registration in this district, voters prefer aDemocratic candidate for Congress by 8%. Voters who are undecided on the Garcia-Rivera election leantoward a Democratic candidate by 20%, indicating Garcia benefits from a partisan preference amongundecided voters.If the November election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote? The
…
All Undec
Difference +8 +20
Democratic
candidate 45 29
Republican
candidate 37 9
Don’t know
18 62 Additionally, President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney by 10% (Obama 50%, Romney 40%,undecided 10%) in the 26
th
District.
If the election for President were held today, would you be voting for … ?
All Undec
Difference +10 +9
Democrat
Barack Obama 50 41
Republican
Mitt Romney 40 32
Don’t know
10 27
BENENSON STRATEGY GROUP
1000 POTOMAC STREET NW, SUITE 420WASHINGTON, D.C. 20007
FL CD-26 August 2012 Poll
The majority of voters are unfamiliar with Rivera
More voters are familiar with Garcia than Rivera. Rivera’s name ID is just 43%, leaving significant room
to define Rivera and his ethical issues.
JoeGarciaDavidRivera
Name ID 50 43
Voters are unhappy with Rivera’s performance in Congress
Many voters are unaware of Rivera’s performance in Congress, but among those with an opinion, theyare more likely to be unhappy than happy. Rivera’s job
approval is net negative by 12% among all votersand -19% among undecided voters.How would you rate the job
David Rivera
has been doing as
Congressman
?
All Undec
Difference -12 -19
Total Excellent/Good 25 14Excellent 3 4Good 21 10Total Fair/Poor 37 33Fair 23 22Poor 15 11
Don’t know
38 53
Voters side with Garcia over Rivera on key attributes
More voters think Garcia is honest than think the same about Rivera. Voters are also more likely tobelieve Garcia will stand up and fight for people like them than believe that Rivera will fight for them.[INSERT STATEMENT] Does this apply more to Joe Garcia or David Rivera? (names rotated)
Garcia RiveraBothNeither
Don’t
Know
Difference
Is honest28 214641
+7
Will stand up and fight for people like you36 301627
+6
Low awareness of legal investigation of Rivera
6 in 10 voters (and more than 7 in 10 undecided voters) are unaware that Rivera is under investigation,
so Garcia’s lead will likely grow as voters learn about Rivera’s issues with the law.
Have you heard or read anything David Rivera being under investigation by law enforcement?
All Undec
Yes 41 27No56 68
Don’t know
3 5
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