A decade of economic fluctuation and uncertainty
The NS Mayport community and the Cityof Atlantic Beach (COAS) can expect a decade of economic fluctuation, with the currentdecommissioning of the frigate fleet, and some continued uncertainty about the arrival of thenew Littoral Combat Ships, the 2013-4 arrival of an Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), andespecially about the eventual (2020+) arrival of the CVN.
. In a process that began in 2006 and will end in 2015, NS Mayportwill see all of its FFGs decommissioned. This will take the consumption demand of some3000 sailors out of the local economy, and will result in an estimated contraction of the shipbuilding industry of over $100m annually between 2011-13.
Amphibious Ready Group
. The 2013-4 arrival of an Amphibious Ready Group will bring2000 additional sailors, who will help to lessen the severity of the impact of the loss of thefrigates, adding $60m+ in consumer demand, and $75m in annual ship repair contracts.
. The construction which will precede the arrival of the CVN has been estimated atover $400 million, with an overall economic impact of close to $700 million.
. A CVN at Mayport would bring with it approximately 3,000 personnel, withcomparable impacts on the local economy.
Mayport Corridor redevelopment
. The fluctuations brought about by the movements of Navy ships will provide an opportunity for COAB to influence change in this area.
. Especially with the delayed arrival of the CVN, the decommissioningswill result in an at least medium term decrease in the Navy contribution to local housingdemand. This should turn around from 2015. The 70% of NS Mayport survey respondentswho live in civilian housing pay an average $1600 a month for housing costs. To the extentthat COAB and Beaches communities develop more housing options in this price range,more Navy personnel will live in the area.
. We estimate that the average sailor adds about $30,000 in non-housing consumption demand to the local economy. Beaches residents spend far more in theBeaches cities than do others, and so again, Beaches communities can capture more of thebenefits of this spending through decisions that encourage more sailors to live in the area.
Traffic and crime
. It is likely that new ships in Mayport will have little negative impact oncrime and traffic. Both the professionalism and the discipline of the Navy have improveddramatically in recent decades, while both Wonderwood Drive and the redevelopment of Mayport Road have lessened traffic congestion.
Local government services
. The infrastructure and utilities of Atlantic Beach currently haveexcess capacity that is unlikely to be exceeded as a result of Navy deployments.
. Finnegan Elementary will face continued pressure until NS Mayport produces astudent population to sustain it. The local middle and high school should be unaffected.
Best practice elsewhere
. The cities of Everett, Washington and Watertown, New York aregood case studies for best practices of local government/ Navy relations. Both cities feature aproactive partnership between the public and private sector to engage their military bases andpromote shared interests.