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9-3 lake_memo

9-3 lake_memo

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Published by Terrance Heath

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Published by: Terrance Heath on Sep 04, 2012
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1726MStreet,NW
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Suite1100
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Washington,DC20036
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T202.776.9066
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F202.776.9074WASHINGTON,DC
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BERKELEY,CA
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NEWYORK,NY
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LOSANGELES,CA
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RICHMOND,VAwww.lakeresearch.com
To:InterestedPartiesFrom:CelindaLake,DanielGotoff,andAlexDunn,
LakeResearchPartners
Re:EconomicMessagingOpportunitiesDate:August31,2012ArecentnationwidesurveyuncoversseveralDemocraticeconomicmessageframesthatdefeattheRepublicaneconomicmessage,andthatboastimpressiveadvantagesamongimportantconstituenciesfortheupcomingelection.
1
Themessagesrely,inturn,onthemesofjobcreation,economicfairness,investment,andacontrastwiththeGOPonpriorities.Eachfeaturesaconsistentcore—aproactiveagendabuiltaroundspurringnewinnovation,improvingeducation,andrebuildingkeyinfrastructure.Themostsuccessfulframeisanchoredineconomicpopulism,juxtaposingthewindfallprofitsofahandfulofmillionairesandbillionaireswiththesteadyerosionofAmerica’sworkingmiddleclass.TheRepublicanalternativetested—amessageshapedusingthecurrentRomney-Ryancampaignlanguageinallitsrhetoricalbluster—pullsnopunchesinlambastingPresidentObama(thetextoftheargumentsisincludedonthelastpageofthismemo).Intheend,eachoftheDemocraticframesoutperformstheGOPversionbyfivetosevenpercentagepoints.Itisimportanttorememberthatatthetimeofthesurvey,DemocratstrailedRepublicans,40%to49%,onwhichpartywouldbetterhandletheeconomy.
2
Perhapsmoresignificant,theseframespresentimportantopeningsforreachinggroupsofvotersthatwillbepivotal(upanddowntheballot)onElectionDay.
“PopulismandJobCreation”
,amessagefocusedonrebuildingthemiddleclassthroughaMade-in-Americaagendathatcracksdownonjoboutsourcing,unfair
1
LakeResearchPartnersdesignedandadministeredthisonlinesurveyof1,581likelyvotersnationwide.ThesurveywasconductedacrosstwowavesbetweenAugust16-22,2012.Themarginoferroris+/-2.5%.
2
GWU/
Politico
BattlegroundPollbyLakeResearchPartnersandTarranceGroup.N=1,000registered,likelyvotersnationwide.August5-9,2012.MoE:+/-3.1%.
CelindaLake
President
AlysiaSnell
Partner
MichaelPerry
Partner
DavidMermin
Partner
RobertG.Meadow,Ph.D.
Partner
DanielR.Gotoff
Partner
JoshuaE.Ulibarri
Partner
TresaUndem
Partner
RobertX.Hillman
 ActingChiefOperatingOfficer
RickA.Johnson
SeniorVicePresident
 
EconomicMessagingAugust20122LakeResearchPartnerstradedeals,andcorporatetaxloopholes,beststheRepublicanargumentbyfivepoints(47%to42%).ThismessagealsoedgestheGOP’sinintensity(33%agree
much
morewiththeDemocraticmessagecomparedto31%whoagree
much
morewiththeGOPmessage).
“PopulismandFairness”
juxtaposestheplightofthemiddleclasswiththerichestAmericansandthesystemtheyriggedintheirfavor,callingforraisingtheminimumwageandcallingonmillionairesandcorporationstopaytheirfairshare.ThisversionofourpopulismframeworkeclipsestheRepublicanmessagebysixpointsoverall(47%to41%)andbyfivepointsinintensity(32%to27%).Bothpopulismframesgenerateconsiderableenthusiasmamongthreecoregroups:
 
SwingWomen:womenchoosebothpopulismframesovertheGOPalternativeby16points.Thejobs-orientedargumentperformsroughlyequallyamongwomenofallages,whilethefairnessargumentfaresmuchbetteramongyoungerwomen,whopreferittotheRepublicanframe58%to27%.
 
TheDemocraticbase:71%ofDemocratssidewith“PopulismandJobs”strongly,comparedto74%whostronglysidewith“PopulismandFairness”.DemocratschoosebothpopulismmessagesovertheRepublicanalternative
by91points
.RecentdatahasshownthatwhiteworkingclassvoterscontinuetobeatargetforbothPresidentialcampaigns.WhilethesepopulisteconomicframescannoteraseRomney’sadvantageamongwhiteworkingclassvotersovernight,theyoffertheopportunitytomakeimportantgains,inparticularamongwhiteworkingwomen.Whiteworkingwomensplitbetween“PopulismandJobs”andtheGOPmessageonintensity(30%each)andchoosetheGOPmessageoverallbyjustan8-pointmargin(38%Democraticmessage,45%GOPmessage).
 
3331322747424741
DemocratsRepublicansDemocratsRepublicans
 
Populism&Jobsvs.GOPMessagePopulism&Fairnessvs.GOPMessage
 
EconomicMessagingAugust20123LakeResearchPartnersThiscomesatatimewhenwhitenon-collegeeducatedwomenidentifywithRepublicansoverDemocrats,48%to37%,andfavortheGOPontheeconomyby50%to36%.
3
“GOP’sWrongPriorities”
presentsthebiggestcontrast,outliningDemocrats’plantocreatemiddleclassjobsandnewinvestmentbyaskingthewealthytopaytheirfairshare,ratherthancuttingtaxesonmillionairesandguttingMedicareandeducation.IttrumpstheRepublicanmessage48%to41%,andleads32%to28%inintensity.Whileallofthesemessagesappealtoyoungervoters,“WrongPriorities”drivesamassive48-pointleadamongvotersunder30,includingnearlyhalf(47%)whosidewithDemocratsstrongly.Itisalsothecatalystfora22-pointleadamongindependents.
“Long-TermInvestment”
articulatesabold—andongoingstrategyforinfrastructureinvestmentstorestartoureconomy.ItleadstheRepublicanargument48%to40%andisthestrongestmessageintheSouth(47%Democraticmessage,43%GOPmessage).Italsoappealstoindependentvoters,whochoosetheinvestmentmessageovertheRepublicanalternative34%to23%.
BottomLine
:WhileeachofthefourframeworksexploredinthisresearchhasthepowertoovercomethecompositeRepublicanmessage,anaggressiveeconomicframethatfeaturespopulistthemes,andproposalsdesignedtorebuildthemiddleclass,offersprogressivesimportantmessageopportunities.Theseframesalsodemonstratebroadappealtoquintessentialbaseandswinggroups,allowingforeffectivetargetingamongturnouttargetslikeDemocrats,youngvoters,andwomen,aswellaspersuasiontargets,likeindependents.
3
Ibid.
3228292948414840
DemocratsRepublicansDemocratsRepublicans
 
GOP’sWrongPrioritiesvs.GOPMessageLong-TermInvestmentvs.GOPMessage

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