OXFAM RESEARCH REPORTS SEPTEMBER 2012
Oxfam Research Reports
are written to share research results, to contribute to publicdebate and to invite feedback on development and humanitarian policy and practice.They do not necessarily reflect Oxfam policy positions. The views expressed are thoseof the author and not necessarily those of Oxfam.
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSAND CROP PRICE SPIKES IN ACHANGING CLIMATE
Illustrative global simulation scenarios
INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OFSUSSEX, UK
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes.Various impact studies have considered the effects on global food productionand prices of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and CO
concentrations caused by climate change. But an area that remainsunderexplored is the impact on food prices that may result from an expectedincrease in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This studyuses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelto explore the potential impacts on food prices of a number of extreme weatherevent scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize,and wheat.