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Extreme Weather Events and Crop Price Spikes in a Changing Climate: Illustrative global simulation scenarios

Extreme Weather Events and Crop Price Spikes in a Changing Climate: Illustrative global simulation scenarios

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Published by Oxfam
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes. Various impact studies have considered the effects of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentrations caused by climate change on global food production and prices. But an area that remains underexplored is the food price impacts that may result from an expected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This study uses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the potential food price impacts of a number of extreme weather event scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize and wheat.
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes. Various impact studies have considered the effects of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentrations caused by climate change on global food production and prices. But an area that remains underexplored is the food price impacts that may result from an expected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This study uses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the potential food price impacts of a number of extreme weather event scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize and wheat.

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Published by: Oxfam on Sep 04, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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08/14/2013

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OXFAM RESEARCH REPORTS SEPTEMBER 2012
Oxfam Research Reports
are written to share research results, to contribute to publicdebate and to invite feedback on development and humanitarian policy and practice.They do not necessarily reflect Oxfam policy positions. The views expressed are thoseof the author and not necessarily those of Oxfam. 
www.oxfam.org
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTSAND CROP PRICE SPIKES IN ACHANGING CLIMATE
Illustrative global simulation scenarios
DIRK WILLENBOCKEL
INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OFSUSSEX, UK
 
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes.Various impact studies have considered the effects on global food productionand prices of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and CO
2
concentrations caused by climate change. But an area that remainsunderexplored is the impact on food prices that may result from an expectedincrease in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This studyuses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelto explore the potential impacts on food prices of a number of extreme weatherevent scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize,and wheat.
 
Extreme Weather Events and Crop Price Spikes in a Changing Climate 3
 ABBREVIATIONS
CO
2
Carbon dioxideCGE Computable general equilibriumFAO UN Food and Agriculture Organization AR4 Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCGCM General circulation modelGDP Gross domestic productGTAP Global Trade Analysis Projectha Hectarehg HectogramIDS Institute of Development StudiesIFPRI International Food Policy Research InstituteIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeOECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentSACU Southern African Customs UnionSRES IPCC Special Report on Emission ScenariosSSA Sub-Saharan Africa

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