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Presidential ElectionPresidential Election 
Ohio’s Senate RaceOhio’s Senate Race 
Governor KasichGovernor Kasich Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407--242242--18701870
Executive Summary
Gravis Marketing and Capitol Correspondent conducteda survey of 1,381 registered voters on the afternoon andevening of September 2, 2012 in the state of Ohio. Thesurvey covered the same questions as the one from theweek prior, dealing with preference for the presidentialcandidates, Senate candidates Josh Mandel and SherrodBrown, Governor Kasich’s job performance, whetherAmerica is headed in the right direction, which presiden-tial candidate is more charitable, and opinions about theappropriateness of homosexual marriage. The full list of questions are given on page 3. Overall, with a margin of error of 2.9%, Obama’s previous lead over Romney of 45.3% to 44.4% has switched to a Romney lead of 46.8%to 43.7%. Although within the previous polls margin of error, the Republican convention appears to have givenRomney a 2 point bump while taking 1 point fromObama. Switching to the Senate race, before the Repub-lican convention, Democrat Sherrod Brown held a nar-row 43.6% to 41.4% lead over Republican Josh Mandel.Again, although within the margin of error, the post-convention poll gives Republican Mandel the advantageat 44.3% to 43.5%, representing a 3 point bump for Man-del, while Brown’s take staying basically constant. Bothpolls continue to indicate that the undecided voters willdecide the outcome of the election.
Analysis
Who is Ahead According to Age Group and Sex?
Prior to the Republican convention, Obama held a 48%
Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407--242242--18701870
Ohio ResultsOhio Results 
For 9/2/2012For 9/2/2012 
America’s DirectionAmerica’s Direction 
MarriageMarriage 
Likeability of Obama, RomneyLikeability of Obama, Romney 
 
 
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Ohio ResultsOhio Results 
For 8/2/2012For 8/2/2012 Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407--242242--18701870
to 42% lead among women andRomney held a 51% to 40% leadamong Men. Since the convention,Obama’s lead among women hasshrunk to 46% to 43%, while Rom-ney lead among men remains un-changed. Switching to the vote byage group, before the Republicanconvention, Obama held a 46% to43% lead among the 18-29 yearolds, a 49% to 44% lead among 30-39 year olds, a 43.6% to 43.3% leadamong 40-49 year holds, and a44.5% to 47.3% deficit among vot-ers above 50 year old. Followingthe convention, Obama’s leadamong 18-29 year olds has widenedto 56% to 33%, while Romney hasovertaken the lead among all theother demographic voting groups,with Romney holding a 51% to38% lead among 30 to 39 year olds,a 57% to 36% lead among 40 to 49year olds, and a 46% to 45% leadamong likely voters over 50 yearsold. The large shifting among cer-tain demographics groups is worthwatching. This report only ad-dressed certain aspects of the poll— please call with comments.
Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407--242242--18701870
Age group?18-2930-3940-4950+0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
   %   o   f   T  o   t  a   l
9.6%7.1%10.9%10.7%45.7%57.0%51.0%33.2%44.7%35.9%38.1%56.1%
The Presidential Vote by Age Group (Sep 2,2012)
Obama/Biden, Romney/Ryan?
Obama & BidenRomney & RyanOther or Unsure
   %   o   f   T  o   t  a   l
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