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Demographic Security Comes of Age

Demographic Security Comes of Age

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Published by The Wilson Center
Richard Cincotta contends that "the demographic transition is the key to understandign demographic security issues."
Richard Cincotta contends that "the demographic transition is the key to understandign demographic security issues."

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Published by: The Wilson Center on Sep 05, 2012
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ECSP REPORT
ISSUE 10
2004
24
RICHARD P.CINCOTTA
COMMENTARY
The Next Steps forEnvironment, Population, and Security
Demographic Security Comes of Age
O
n the day I began to write this essay,
The New York Times 
reported thatPakistan planned to bulldoze all Afghanrefugee camps within three miles of its northwestborder. U.S. intelligence satellites had trackedcross-border movements to and from these settle-ments, and Pakistani Army units repeatedly engaged insurgents in the area (Gall, 2004). Another article discussed international opposi-tion to the wall Israel is constructing on the WestBank—ostensibly to eliminate terrorist incur-sions, but in practice to exclude and isolate therapidly growing Palestinian population (Hoge,2004). Two other accounts attracted my atten-tion: a report on U.S. foreign aid for Haiti, whichhas the youngest and fasting growing populationin the Western Hemisphere, and an analysis of factional political violence in the Gaza Strip—a tiny enclave that hosts one of the youngest andfastest growing populations in Asia. What do these articles have in common?Each focused on an event with implications fornational or global security and had an unmis-takable demographiccomponent, and there-fore, lies within the domain of “demographicsecurity 
.
” Demographic security addresses thesecurity aspects of:
 A populations size, age structure, geographicdistribution, or ethnic composition; and
Changes in these demographic conditionsand interactions among them, including migration, population growth, shifts in theage structure, and changing location andproportion of ethnic and religious groups.Demographic security issues are on many multilateral agendas, as demonstrated by theEuropean Union’s concern with its aging native population and its growing Muslimcommunities (Savage, 2004), and the UN’sfocus on poverty, trade in light weapons, andHIV transmission in new cities along the truck routes winding through Africa (Hope, 1998;UN-Habitat, 2003). These seemingly hodge-podge issues are connected by a common the-oretical thread: the “demographic transition,”or the process by which a population charac-terized by relatively short lives and large fami-lies is transformed into a population com-posed principally of people living longer livesand having small families (Figure 1). In our2003 monograph
The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict after the Cold War,
my colleagues, Robert Engelman andDaniele Anastasion, and I contend that thedemographic transition is the key to under-standing demographic security issues.
Civil Strife and Soft Landings
To test this notion, we compared demographicdata from the United Nations PopulationDivision (UNPD, 2003) and the Uppsala Conflict Data Project’s global database.
1
 Wefocused only on
civil conflicts 
—revolutions, eth-nic and religious insurgencies, state-sponsoredviolence, and domestic terrorism. This broadclass of intrastate conflicts nearly tripled inannual prevalence between 1950 and 1992, andtheir average duration has grown since the1980s (Collier, Hoeffler, & Söderbom, 2001). After filtering out persistent and recurring conflicts, we found countries in the early andmiddle stages of the demographic transition— with high birth and death rates—much morelikely to experience an outbreak of new civilconflict than those farther along in the transi-
Richard P. Cincotta is senior researchassociate at Population ActionInternational, a policy research organiza-tion in Washington, D.C.
 
COMMENTARY
THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY
25
tion (i.e., with lower birth and death rates). Thetrend held up through the 1970s and 1980s, as well as the post-Cold War 1990s, suggesting that superpower funding, training, and military hardware may have influenced the nature andintensity of Cold War-era civil conflicts morethan developing states’ vulnerability to them(see Figure 2).Our research also shows that the statisticallikelihood of civil conflict decreased consistent-ly as countries’ birth rates declined, suggesting that for most states, the demographic transitionpromotes a “soft landing.” Significantly, a softlanding is not an inherent property of the dem-ocratic transition, which features instabilitiesmidway along its path. Partial democracies—states offering an institutional admixture of civil freedoms and authoritarian constraints—are more statistically vulnerable to state failurethan either fully democratic or wholly authori-tarian regimes (Esty et al., 1999).Some developing countries appear to risk similar instabilities midway through theirtransition to an open free-market economy. Ina series of analytical case studies, Amy Chua (2002) has demonstrated that IMF-leveragedliberalization policies unwittingly providemarket-savvy ethnic minorities with opportu-nities to gain further control over capital.Coupled with fast-paced democratic reforms,increased inequalities fuel ethnic animosities,boost popular support for nationalist politicalmovements and, in some cases, act as a spring-board for demagogues to attain political office(Chua, 2002).The security dynamics of these transitionslend credence to the hypothesis that early-phasestates—including Iraq, Pakistan, and Nigeria—might lower their risk of civil conflict during their transitions to democracy and free marketsif they advanced through the demographictransition. This thesis explains the substantialdemocratic, social, and economic progress of certain East Asian states (particularly SouthKorea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, andMalaysia), where significant declines in fertility preceded substantial and successful democraticand free-market reforms.
Demographic Risk Factors
Researchers have found at least eight demo-graphic topics associated with political instabil-ity or conflict. These are:
High proportion of young adults ages 15 to 29 years—a “youth bulge”—among the working-age population.
In the 1990s, states with a large youth bulge were nearly 2.5 timesas likely to experience an outbreak of civil con-flict as other states (Cincotta, Engelman, & Anastasion, 2003).
2
 York University researchersChristian Mesquida and Neil Weiner (1996,1999) have also demonstrated that the intensi-ty of recent conflict in war-torn regions is posi-tively correlated to the proportion of young adults in the adult population.
Rapid urban population growth.
During the1990s, countries with a high rate of urban popu-lation growth were about twice as likely as otherstates to experience an outbreak of civil conflict.On the ground, researchers and policymakersmay find it difficult to separate urban growth andthe youth bulge. In countries where agriculture isno longer promising, young adults typically migrate to urban centers in search of education,employment, and opportunities for immigration.Thus, urban centers, where political protest ismore easily organized, tend to have unusually high proportions of young adults in their work-ing-age population (Fuller & Pitts, 1990).
Low levels of per capita cropland and/or  fresh water.
Cross-country statistical evidencedoes not demonstrate that low per capita sup-plies of either fresh water or cropland increasethe risk of full-fledged civil conflict on theirown. Nonetheless, the added risks to statesunder stress could be underrated. For example,in the 1990s, about half of all countries withhigh proportions of young adults
and 
low levelsof one or both of these critical resources experi-enced an outbreak of civil conflict (Cincotta etal, 2003). Leif Ohlsson (2000) has argued thatscarcities of critical natural resources underminethe ability of agricultural economies to absorblabor, promoting landless poverty and thusaccelerating the growth of urban slums and pro-viding potential recruits for insurgencies.
U.S. foreign policyshould improvegirls’ access toschooling andwomen’s access tofamily planning,maternal healthcare, and income-generating oppor-tunities.
 
ECSP REPORT
ISSUE 10
2004
26
High mortality rates among working-age adults 
(indicative of high rates of AIDS mortal-ity). There is insufficient statistical evidence tolink HIV/AIDS to the outbreak of conflict.Nonetheless, we should explore the argumentsthat point to the disease’s effects: large youthbulge, the loss of key professionals, weakenedmilitary and police units, and unprecedentednumbers of orphans. The future demographicimpacts of HIV/AIDS are likely to exceed thoseof the 1980s and 1990s dramatically.
Differential growth rates among ethnic and religious groups.
Tensions can arise whenchanges in ethnic or religious group distribu-tion and composition (the proportions of suchgroups in the population) are perceived asthreats to the political character, traditions, orcultural practices of another group. Tensionscan also arise when groups are denied politicalaccess commensurate with their perceived shareof the population. Such tensions are likely toincrease in the 21st century, as ethnic popula-tions within countries progress through thedemographic transition. Unfortunately, many countries lack accurate data on ethnic composi-tion and differential ethnic fertility and mortal-ity rates, limiting opportunities for country analyses and cross-national comparisons.
Migration.
Refugees and other cross-bordermigrants often evoke fears and provoke anti-immigrant tensions in host countries. Whilethe vast majority of migrants seek only to ekeout a living or assimilate, some aid insurgents oractively participate in insurgencies. Trends andpolicies that influence migration, ethnic rela-tions, separatism, and assimilation warrant clos-er study and more accurate data.
 Aging and population decline.
Some econ-omists and demographers are alarmed by thepurportedly deleterious effects of aging popula-tions on social cohesion and economic prosper-ity. This is uncertain terrain; industrial coun-tries are just beginning to grapple with the chal-lenges of shrinking workforces and growing proportions of the elderly. So far, none of theaging countries has experienced unusual eco-nomic or political instability—including Russia, where the median age has risen to 38and population is declining by around 1 mil-lion people (0.7 percent) annually (DaVanzo &Grammich, 2001). European countries withfast-growing Muslim minorities are most con-cerned with the decline of the native-born pop-ulation; in these states, issues of national identi-ty, religion, and culture are at stake—and thustend to color the discussion of populationdecline, aging, and security (Savage, 2004).
High sex ratios 
(populations where menvastly outnumber women). In their new book,political scientists Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer (2004) use historical accounts tomake the case that populations with a high sex ratio are more vulnerable to political unrest and
 
Pre-TransitionPost-TransitionEarly Middle LateYearsPopulation Size453525155
   B   i  r   t   h  a  n   d   D  e  a   t   h   R  a   t  e   (  p  e  r   t   h  o  u  s  a  n   d  p  e  o  p   l  e   )
BirthRateDeathRate
Figure 1.
The demographic transition (an idealized version of which is pic-tured) is comprised of two components: birth rate and death rate transitions.Historically, the death rates have dropped before birth rates. Rapid populationgrowth occurs when a gap opens up between birth and death rates. Individually,birth rate and death rate transitions have taken from 50 to 150 years to com-plete. Some developing countries are passing through these transitions rapidly,much faster than European or North American populations did during the 19thand early 20th centuries.
Source: Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion (2003)

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