countries is shrinking dramatically.
demographic weight are even more striking.
In2005,allofEuropecomprised731mil-lionpeople,whichisprojectedtoshrinkto just664millionby2050,whiletherestofthe worldgrowsfrom5.8billionto8.5billion(UN
generation (the next 42 years), global popula
lion while Europe’s population will
European countries puts them on the horns o
developing countries do not catch up to thoseo the richer countries, then the standard o
and unair than ever, ueling resentment o
other hand, i economic growth in those coun
tries does exceed that o the West, so that liv
ing standards in poor countries or regions startsto approach those o rich countries or regions,then the combination o shrinking popula
tion and lagging economies will render the
world economy. Greater resentment or greaterirrelevance: certainly a difcult choice.
and no net population growth, Europe’s econo
my would increase by US$9 trillion (excluding
growth in GDP per capita plus large populationincreases in most countries, total GDP is grow
ing ar more rapidly in this region. Iran andPakistan achieved recent growth rates o 4 and6 percent per year, respectively, while India and
and despite the global economic downturn,both countries are expected to continue grow
or morethan three times the total economic growth o Europe.
GDP does grow at that pace, then given the size
on the Eurasian continent will be occurring outside o Europe. Greater degrees o invest
ment and innovation are likely to move to areasoutside o Europe, urther weakening its eco
nomic strength and leadership. In other words, we are on the cusp o a global tipping point,
economic growth—a point made all the moresharper as Europe and Japan slip into recession
also indicate that the military capacities o large developing countries will increase, whilethe ability o rich nations to put “boots onthe ground” in conict zones will diminish.Managing conicts involving developing coun
tries will become more difcult, and will putmore o a strain on developed countries’ econo
mies, than beore.
Indonesia, and Mexico will become global eco
ers into international governance bodies is vitali those organizations are to retain legitimacy.
Markets and the World Economy expanded the
cratic economies—a trend that must continuei such eorts are truly going to grapple withthe global economy.Naturally, these measures will provoke greatopposition and controversy. However, i Europechooses to isolate itsel rom the global popula
th proporionof h world’s
poplaonlvn n mslsas, o n v las andv poossas, wllow, and
proporion of h world’s
poplaonlvn ndvlopdcons wllsnk.