NIMET Pesentation NIMSA Summit

- NIMETS Contribution in Mitigating the Challenges and Consequences of the Climate Odds in Nigeria
Paper presented at the Nigerian Medical Students Association (NiMSA) Standing Committee on Environment and Population Activities (SCOEPA) at
University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, Gwagwalada, Abuja
A CLIMATE AT ODDS WITH ITSELF
6 7 September 2012
Dr. Anthony C. Anuforom

Director General / Chief Executive Officer & Permanent Representative of Nigeria with World Meteorological Organisation Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) 33 Pope Paul II Street Maitama District, ABUJA
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)
providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable development and safety of life and property
Outline of Presentation Background Information and Definitions

Evidences of Climate Change in Nigeria
Challenges of Climate Change

Consequences of Climate Change Role of NIMET in support of the Transformation Agenda of Government on Climate Change Concluding Remarks
Background Information and Definitions

Climate plays an important role in human affairs, especially in
socio-economic planning and development in Nigeria.
Climate anomalies (odds) lead to extreme climate events such as floods and droughts, desertification, soil erosion, etc
These extreme climate events have now led to the issues of sustainable development and sustainability of the environment and resources and become scientific discussion in the country.
Climate change has impact on the environment and especially on agriculture and food production, water resources and energy systems, health, forestry, marine resources development, transportation, tourism, etc Nigeria is vulnerable to climate change and there is need to be concerned with, and examine the consequences on socioeconomic and socio-cultural activities of the country
Global warming along with associated variability and changes in the earths climate has gradually emerged as one of the greatest challenges of our time as related to natural hazards such heat wave, hurricane, flood and drought continue to occur in alarming frequency and intensity, with severe consequences on key sectors like health, agriculture and water resources. Notable among these are the 9.5 billion USD losses from the Pakistani flood disaster and the Russian heat-wave and air pollution disasters that led to the death of 56,000 people in 2010. In Nigeria, 20 billion naira was lost to flood in year 2007 alone. Havocs from such climate change hazards have continued in the country as can be seen during the last two years (2011 and 2012). Health related impact of these include increased incidences of epidemics such as cholera, measles and cerebrospinal meningitis.

Global Warming is often interchangeably used by many as Climate Change; The differences is that while global warming is an overall warming of the Earths surface, based on average temperature over the entire surface, Climate Change on the other hand refers to changes with time in regional climate characteristics, including other weather parameters beside temperature, (e.g. Rainfall) Global warming is described as the rising average temperature of earths atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8C (1.4F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. This warming trend is unequivocal and it is being caused by increasing concentrations of Green House Gases (GHGs) produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning of fossil fuel.

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm the planets lower atmosphere and surface.Carbon dioxide (CO2) like the other greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and nitrous oxide (N2O) performs this temperature-regulatory role, i.e. preventing some of the heat energy received from the sun from escaping to space thereby keeping the surface of the earth some 3oC warmer than it would otherwise be in order to allow life-forms to exist. This present extra-heating of the atmosphere arose from drastic increase in the proportion of the GHGs in the atmosphere, through non-eco friendly human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels; coal, oil and gas especially since industrialization, deforestation, landfill, etc.

Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 19th century, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels with concentrations increasing at a rate of about 2-3 ppm/year. An increase from about 280 parts per millions in 1950 to about 345 parts per millions in 1985 was recorded. These increasing concentrations are projected to reach a range of between 535 to 983 ppm by the end of the 21st century. Some GHGs occur naturally, e.g. water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone, while others such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) result exclusively from human industrial processes.

Climate Change Concepts
Climate change is defined as a difference over a period of time (with respect to a baseline or a reference period) and corresponds to a statistical significant trend of mean climate or its variability, persistent over a long period of time (e.g. decades or more). Climate change may be due to both natural (i.e. internal or external processes of the climate system) as well as anthropogenic forcings (ex. increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases);
Evidences of Climate Change in Nigeria

(a) Rainfall Rainfall is highly variable in Nigeria in both time and space The interannual variability is shown evident in the Figure below.
Mean Rainfall Over Nig eria
150
140
130
Mean Rainfall (mm)
120
y = -0.0502x + 123.05
110
100
90
RR mean Linear (RR)
80
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
YEARS
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Late onsets of rains in a few places

14
SOK BRK GUS KAT NGU
Late Onset now spreading to many parts of the country

14
SOK BRK KAT NGU
12
ZAR YEL KON KAD
KAN DUT POT DAM
MAI
GUS
12
ZAR YEL
KAN DUT POT DAM
MAI
Latitude (degrees N)
BAU JOS MIN
10
JEB SHK ISY IBA ABE IJB IKE BEN ILO OSB AKU OND BID
GOM
KON
KAD BAU JOS MIN GOM
10
ABU LAF IBI LOK
YOL JLG
ABU LAF IBI LOK
YOL JLG
MKD OTU OGJ ENU
MKD OTU OGJ ENU
ONT
ABK IKM
ONT
ABK IKM
WAR YEN
UMU OWE PHC CAL
WAR YEN
UMU OWE PHC CAL
10
12
14
10
12
14
Longitude (degrees E)
Deviation of 1941 70 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1911 40 onset dates
Deviation of 1971 2000 Mean onset date of rainy season from the 1911 40 onset dates
Early cessation of rains in and around Ondo/Ilorin

14
SOK BRK GUS KAT NGU
Early cessation of the rains now affect many parts of the country
14
SOK BRK GUS KAT NGU
12
ZAR YEL KON KAD
KAN DUT POT DAM
MAI
12
ZAR YEL KON KAD
KAN DUT POT DAM
MAI
GOM
BAU JOS MIN
BAU JOS MIN
GOM
10
10
JEB SHK ISY IBA ABE IJB ILO OSB AKU OND BEN BID
ABU LAF IBI LOK
YOL JLG
ABU LAF IBI LOK
YOL JLG
MKD OTU OGJ ENU
MKD OTU OGJ ENU
IKE ONT
ONT
ABK IKM
ABK IKM
WAR YEN
UMU OWE PHC CAL
WAR YEN
UMU OWE PHC CAL
10
12
14
10
12
14
Deviation of 1941 70 Mean cessation date of rainy season from the 1911 40 cessation dates
Deviation of 1971-2000 Mean cessation dates from 1911-40
SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE ANALYSES

Rainfall Changes Rainfall Amount decreases by 15 - 20% but rainfall intensity increases by about 10 15% leading to floods Late onset of the rainy season spreading to many areas in the country since 1911 Early cessation of the rains Shorter length of rainy season
Shorter period available for farming

Desertification conditions spreading, etc
(b) Temperature
Without natural greenhouse effect, the mean temperature of the planet would be around 180C (Source of the diagram : UNDP, Samoa, 2009)
Industrial development as a major factor in the recent rapid increase in GHG concentrations and in Nigeria the largest contribution is from Gas flaring
NON-ECO FRIENDLY HUMAN ACTIVITIES
Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide (Kehinde Ogunjobi 2009)
Climate Change Concept

. Carbon dioxide (CO2) like the other greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and nitrous oxide (N2O) performs temperature-regulatory role; preventing some of the heat energy received from the sun from escaping to space thereby keeping the surface of the earth some 3oC warmer than it would otherwise be in order to allow life-forms to exist. Extra-heating of the atmosphere arose from drastic increase in the proportion of the GHGs in the atmosphere, through non-eco friendly human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels; coal, oil and gas especially since industrialization, deforestation, landfill, etc.
Changes in the concentration of GHGs in the last 2000 years
Variations of the Earths surface temperature in the last 1000 years
Mean Surface Temperature over Nigeria

28
27.5
MEAN TEMPERATURE
27
dT dt year
26.5
26
25.5
1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
YEARS
Decadal Changes in Surface Temperature(degrees Celsius) over Nigeria
Changes in Mean Surface Temperature

27.2 27.1 27 26.9
Mean Surface Temperature
26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1

1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
1951 - 1981 1961 - 1990 1971 - 2000 1976 - 2005
Years
Observed Temperature Changes Present day surface air temperature ~27.2oC ~ 2% increase from the baseline period Warming of ~ 1oC is projected during the decade 2020 2030 (BAU) reaching ~28.2oC ~ 3.7% increase from present day value Average surface temperature has increased by approx. 0.5 0.6oC
(c) Water Resources
(c) Water Resources

Lake Chad: 1972 and 1987. Lake Chad, which supplies water to Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria, was once one of the largest lakes in Africa. But extensive irrigation projects, the encroaching desert and an increasingly dry climate have caused it to shrink to 5% its former size
Picture showing the areal view (upper panel) of the fast eroding Bar Beach in Lagos and picture (lower panel) devastation of major road and threat buildings fronting the beach.(Awosika et. al., 2002).
Flooding of Aiyetoro community along the Mahin Mud coast. Flooding results from multiple of causes: erosion (note the shoreline on the top side of picture), low lying topography, sea level rise etc (Awosika et. al, 2000)
Flooding of Ahmadu-Bello Way of Victoria Island on the 4TH of Sept 2008 as a Result of Storm Surge
Lagos under threat
(d) Vegetation Changes in Nigeria.
IMPACTS AND CHALLENGES TO THE HEALTH SECTOR
Already, 1.8 million people, mostly children die every year from diarrheal diseases caused by contaminated water. This is expected to worsen as the climate gets warmer. Death rates are also expected to rise as the warming causes more deaths in summer.
Deaths due to temperature related diseases such as malaria, meningitis, measles have increased over the years in the country due to rising temperatures. Water borne diseases such as cholera have also been on the increase as a result of dirtier air and water. Increases in the risk of illness and death related to extreme heat and heat waves are very likely. Some reduction in the risk of death related to extreme cold is expected. Warming is likely to make it more challenging to meet air quality standards necessary to protect public health, while extreme weather events cause physical and mental health problems. Some of these events are projected to increase. Some diseases transmitted by food, water, and insects are likely to increase. Rising temperature and carbon dioxide concentration increase pollen production and prolong the pollen season in a number of plants with highly allergenic pollen, presenting a health risk. Certain groups, including children, the elderly, and the poor, are most vulnerable to a range of climaterelated health effects.
Pathways by which Climate Change affects Human Health

Modulating influences Health effects
Temperature-related illness and death Extreme weatherrelated health effects Air pollution-related health effects Water and foodborne diseases Vector-borne and rodent-borne diseases Effects of food and Water shortages Mental, nutritional, infectious and other health effects
Human exposures
Regional Weather Changes Heatwaves Extreme weather Temperature Precipitation Contamination pathways Transmission dynamics
CLIMATE CHANGE
Changes in agro-ecosystems, hydrology Socio-economic and demographic disruptions
BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON MALARIA DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.
BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON MENINGITIS DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.
BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON CHOLERA DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.
BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON DIARHOEA DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.
BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON TYPHOID DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-2007.
COMPONENT BAR CHART SHOWING THE NUMBERS OF

PERSON WHO VISITED THE HOSPITAL BASED ON SOME DISEASES DUE TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE BETWEEN 1987-
2007.
Challenges of Climate Change in Nigeria

Lack of efficient technologies and legislative will in the country to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (gas flaring, emission from vehicles and industries). This has led to shifts in dates for the enforcement of certain environmental laws in the country Inadequate vulnerability assessment of the country from climate variability/change Global economic downturn leading to inadequate financial resources to mitigate the impacts of the changing climate
Low level of education

Communicating scientific information to the public and policy communities is always a challenge to scientists. Existing gap in science-policy linkage in the use of climate information in long-term policy planning process at local and national levels to address responses to future change with focus on minimising climate risks
Consequences of Climate Change in Nigeria

DROUGHT & DESERTIFICATION : DESERT NOW COVERS OVER 35% OF NATIONS LANDMASS. FLOODS, STORM SURGES, & GULLY EROSIONS (WASHING AWAY THE COASTAL ZONE): E.G. LAGOS BAR BEACH (1,500m in 1964, 200m in 1976 AND NOW OVER THE ROAD) CLAIMS 20-30m LAND ANNUALLY. COLLAPSE OF ECO ZONE FROM 9 TO 5, AS THE SAVANNA (INTERFACE OF DESERT & FOREST) IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH. DISPLACEMENT OR MIGRATION OF LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE/ANIMALS CONFLICTS OVER DWINDLING NATURAL RESOURCES

FAMINE , FOOD CRISIS & WATER SCARCITY LOSS OF MASSIVE LANDMASS AFFECTING AGRIC, TOURISM INDUSTRY
LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY, E.G. WETLANDS AFFECTING MARINE LIVES , FISHING, ETC.

MORE INTENSE STORMS & TIDAL WAVES FOLLOWING INCREASED WARMING
MORE EPIDEMICS SUCH AS MEASLES, CEREBROSPINAL
MENINGITIS (DUE TO HEAT WAVE) AND CHOLERA AND OTHER WATERBORNE DISEASES (FOLLOWING WATER POLLUTION AS A RESULT OF FLOODS)

The kinds of consequences that scientists and leaders have been increasingly worried about include:
Coastal Flooding and Erosion: Our 850km coastline is threatened by ocean surges, saline intrusion and erosion. A sea level rise of 2metres will inundate the coast and sack coastal communities.
Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Many scientists believe that the increase in heat waves, episodes of extreme rainfall, and the intensity of storms are largely related to climate changes caused by global warming, and that we can expect harsher weather if the warming trend is allowed to continue.
Droughts and Desertification: Rising temperatures may increase the number of droughts, which will in turn affect food crops and water availability across the country. Many scientists are warning that we may already be seeing agricultural problems as a result of the countrys changing climate. Poverty: Low agricultural productivity and income.
Human Health: Increasing frequencies of heatwaves and more variable precipitation patterns are compromise to the supply of freshwater and increasing risks of water-borne disease
Consequences of Climate Change

(source: UNDP Samoa)
Variability in water supply , quality and distribution. More competition and cross-border conflicts over water resources WATER RESOURCES
Changes in forest composition, extent, health & productiv ity
Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress on mangroves, marshes, wetlands COASTAL SYSTEMS ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
HEALTH AGRICULTURE FORESTRY AGRICULTURE
Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costs
Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestations
Loss of habitat, species and protectiv e ecosystems, migratory shif ts
NIMETS CLIMATE INFORMATION SERVICE (CIS) IN RESPONSE TO THE CHALLENGES Prior knowledge of changes and trends in temperature and other weather and climate parameters therefore constitutes vital Early Warning Services (EWS) for the socio-economic sectors. NIMETs Climate Information Services (CIS)products provides these necessary advisories to operators in all sectors. For example, in the health sector, Temperature Alerts provides guidance on need for the necessary vaccines in the event of outbreak of meningitis. Other CIS products like the Seasonal Rainfall prediction and the Agromet Decadal Bulletin provide guidance on choice of crop species in the event of drought and so reduce health implications of famine and food insecurity. Others products include: The Drought Monitoring Bulletin The Hydromet Bulletin, The Farmers Guide The Annual Climate and the Quarterly Weather Reviews and The Daily weather forecasts
Role of NIMET towards achieving Govt Policies

Poverty Eradication:
The Agency provides forecasts and early warning on impending weather. Such information assists farmers to plan their planting, weeding, application of fertilizers and pesticides, etc. The information also helps the farmer to take necessary steps to reduce risks of losses while at the same time taking maximum benefits of favourable weather conditions to improve their outputs.
Food Security: With seasonal rainfall forecasts and advisories
provided by NIMET, farmers select crops types and species that are most suitable to impending weather. The Agency also monitors the developmental stages of crops to determine the vulnerability of these crops and proffers further advice where necessary
Improved Health conditions:
NIMET provides extreme weather and climate data and in collaboration with our Health Institutions, mitigate the impact of health-related ailments like Meningitis, Malaria, Dengue Fever, Conjectivitis, etc. Also, provides advisory services to manufacturers of confectioneries & beauty products in aid of distribution according to need based on expected weather Conditions for the season of interest
Role of NIMET towards achieving Govt Policies

Sustainable infrastructural and environmental development: NIMET advocates the use of an alternative source of
energy for most domestic activities. The Agency is also involved in research studies that will foster Clean Development Mechanism that will reduce carbon dioxide and other pollutants in the environment. It provides information on the extent of climate change in the country
Better standards of living through sustainable economic development: NIMET is involved in safety in the air,
land and sea transportation through the provision of timely weather forecasts for aircraft operations, ship navigation over our territorial waters and vehicular movements.
Concluding Statements
Climate change impact is very rapid over the country and
thus makes adaptability very difficult considering also the fragile economy of the nation. The records of socio-economic losses incurred as a result of extreme weather and climate conditions show increasing trend in the financial losses.
Climate sits at the nexus of the two principal development

concerns namely; poverty and sustainability development
Efforts to better understand the role of the climate on
society and to develop ways to manage climate impact especially through improving climate prediction techniques must therefore contribute to key development objectives.
The country needs further assistance from the developed

countries on appropriate technologies in energy efficiency programmes especially in the area of gas utilisation
HEED THE WARNING STOP THE WARMING REDUCE THE ODDS

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- NIMETS Contribution in Mitigating the Challenges and Consequences of the Climate Odds in Nigeria

A CLIMATE AT ODDS WITH ITSELF

Dr. Anthony C. Anuforom

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Outline of Presentation Background Information and Definitions

Challenges of Climate Change

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Background Information and Definitions

socio-economic planning and development in Nigeria.

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Background Information and Definitions

Background Information and Definitions

Background Information and Definitions

Background Information and Definitions

Background Information and Definitions

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Evidences of Climate Change in Nigeria

Mean Rainfall (mm)

RR mean Linear (RR)

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Late onsets of rains in a few places

Late Onset now spreading to many parts of the country

KAN DUT POT DAM

KAN DUT POT DAM

BAU JOS MIN

KAD BAU JOS MIN GOM

ABU LAF IBI LOK

ABU LAF IBI LOK

MKD OTU OGJ ENU

MKD OTU OGJ ENU

UMU OWE PHC CAL

UMU OWE PHC CAL

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Early cessation of rains in and around Ondo/Ilorin

KAN DUT POT DAM

KAN DUT POT DAM

BAU JOS MIN

BAU JOS MIN

ABU LAF IBI LOK

ABU LAF IBI LOK

MKD OTU OGJ ENU

MKD OTU OGJ ENU

UMU OWE PHC CAL

UMU OWE PHC CAL

Deviation of 1971-2000 Mean cessation dates from 1911-40

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

SEQUENCE OF EVENTS FROM THE ANALYSES

Shorter period available for farming

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

NON-ECO FRIENDLY HUMAN ACTIVITIES

Climate Change Concept

Changes in the concentration of GHGs in the last 2000 years

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Variations of the Earths surface temperature in the last 1000 years

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Mean Surface Temperature over Nigeria

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Decadal Changes in Surface Temperature(degrees Celsius) over Nigeria

Changes in Mean Surface Temperature

26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1

1951 - 1981 1961 - 1990 1971 - 2000 1976 - 2005

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)