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iNvESTMENT STrATEGy
The first financial market week of September was coloured by central bank signals and announcements from the United States and the euro zone. Although there were few surprises at the US Federal Reserve (Fed) symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming the previous Friday, markets were pleased last week about Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes hints that a third round of quantitative easing (Q3) in the US is not out of the question. The European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, but this was offset by ECB President Mario Draghis presentation of the banks new Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme for buying sovereign bonds from problem-plagued euro zone countries. Under OMT, the bank will buy bonds only in the secondary market and will not enjoy priority over other creditors. Before the ECB begins such purchases, a country must apply for aid from the European Unions EFSF/ESM emergency rescue funds and accept the conditions required in their agreement with these funds. Americas ISM purchasing managers index for manufacturing came in lower than anticipated, despite preliminary data from Markit indicating a slight upturn. The week ended with a report on unexpectedly slow US job growth. Swedens Riksbank lowered its repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% and unveiled a new rate path forecast indicating that this was its last rate cut, but SEB predicts a further 25 point cut in December.
September 7
10y euro zone bond yield 10y Swedish bond yield EUR/SEK exchange rate USD/SEK exchange rate EUR/USD exchange rate Oil, USD/barrel, Brent VIX volatility index
Level
1.52% 1.46% 8.45 6.59 1.28 114.2 14.4
25.0
25.0
22.5
Percent
22.5
20.0
20.0
17.5
17.5
15.0
15.0
Feb
Mar
Apr
Maj 2012
Jun
Jul
Aug
12.5
Market Outlook
iNvESTMENT STrATEGy
Exposure
Given a growth scenario, greater potential upside for cyclical shares than for defensive ones -valuations are probably attractive, but the uncertainty is far from over, and there is a risk of a continued weak economic trend in the wake of gloomy macroeconomic data Continued positive view of high yield -bonds where the yield gaps against sovereign bonds remain attractive Exposure to sovereign bonds in emerging markets -attractive expected returns and good portfolio diversification through exposure to EM sovereign bonds
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