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3.1 White noise
3.2 Basic ARMA models
3.3 Lag operators and polynomials
3.3.1 Manipulating ARMAs with lag operators
3.3.2 AR(1) to MA(∞) by recursive substitution
3.3.3 AR(1) to MA(∞) with lag operators
3.4 Multivariate ARMA models
3.5 Problems and Tricks
4.1 Deﬁnitions
4.2 Autocovariance and autocorrelation of ARMA processes
4.2.1 Summary
4.3 A fundamental representation
4.4 Admissible autocorrelation functions
4.5 Multivariate auto- and cross correlations
Prediction and Impulse-Response Functions
5.1 Predicting ARMA models
5.2 State space representation
5.2.1 ARMAs in vector AR(1) representation
5.2.2 Forecasts from vector AR(1) representation
5.2.3 VARs in vector AR(1) representation
5.3 Impulse-response function
5.3.1 Facts about impulse-responses
Stationarity and Wold representation
6.1 Deﬁnitions
6.2 Conditions for stationary ARMA’s
6.3 Wold Decomposition theorem
6.3.1 What the Wold theorem does not say
6.4 The Wold MA(∞) as another fundamen- tal representation
7.1 Orthogonalizing VARs
7.1.1 Ambiguity of impulse-response functions
7.1.2 Orthogonal shocks
7.1.3 Sims orthogonalization–Specifying C(0)
7.1.4 Blanchard-Quah orthogonalization—restrictions on C(1)
7.2 Variance decompositions
7.3 VAR’s in state space notation
7.4 Tricks and problems:
7.5.3 Moving average representation
7.5.4 Univariate representations
7.5.5 Eﬀect on projections
7.5.6 Summary
7.5.7 Discussion
7.5.8 A warning: why “Granger causality” is not “Causal- ity”
7.5.9 Contemporaneous correlation
Spectral Representation
8.1 Facts about complex numbers and trigonom- etry
8.1.1 Deﬁnitions
8.1.2 Addition, multiplication, and conjugation
8.1.3 Trigonometric identities
8.1.4 Frequency, period and phase
8.1.5 Fourier transforms
8.1.6 Why complex numbers?
8.2 Spectral density
8.2.1 Spectral densities of some processes
8.2.2 Spectral density matrix, cross spectral density
8.3.1 Spectrum of ﬁltered series
8.3.2 Multivariate ﬁltering formula
8.3.3 Spectral density of arbitrary MA(∞)
8.3.4 Filtering and OLS
8.3.5 A cosine example
8.3.7 Constructing ﬁlters
8.3.8 Sims approximation formula
Spectral analysis in ﬁnite samples
9.1 Finite Fourier transforms
9.1.1 Deﬁnitions
9.2 Band spectrum regression
9.2.1 Motivation
9.2.2 Band spectrum procedure
9.3 Cram´er or Spectral representation
9.4 Estimating spectral densities
9.4.1 Fourier transform sample covariances
9.4.2 Sample spectral density
9.4.4 Asymptotic distribution of sample spectral den- sity
9.4.5 Smoothed periodogram estimates
9.4.6 Weighted covariance estimates
9.4.8 Variance of ﬁltered data estimates
9.4.9 Spectral density implied by ARMA models
9.4.10 Asymptotic distribution of spectral estimates
10.1 Random Walks
10.2 Motivations for unit roots
10.2.1 Stochastic trends
10.2.2 Permanence of shocks
10.2.3 Statistical issues
10.3 Unit root and stationary processes
10.3.1 Response to shocks
10.3.2 Spectral density
10.3.3 Autocorrelation
10.3.4 Random walk components and stochastic trends
10.3.5 Forecast error variances
10.3.6 Summary
10.4 Summary of a(1) estimates and tests
10.4.2 Empirical work on unit roots/persistence
11.3.1 Deﬁnition of cointegration
11.3.2 Multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition
11.3.3 Rank condition on A(1)
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Time Series Book

# Time Series Book

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Published by: fenomanana on Sep 14, 2012

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