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FMWB September 2012 Michigan General Election Poll Press Release

FMWB September 2012 Michigan General Election Poll Press Release

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Published by: Casey Michel on Sep 14, 2012
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Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 1
President Obama and Senator Stabenow have both reclaimed narrowleads in Michigan, per (FMW)
B
latest poll.
September 13, 2012
Contact: Eric Foster313-333-7081 CellEmail: efoster@fostermccollumwhite.com  Contact: Tarek Baydoun313-729-3737 CellEmail: baydounconsulting@gmail.com
Contact: Jacqueline McCollum313-574-5384 CellEmail:  jmccollum@fostermccollumwhite.com
The combination of missteps by Mitt Romney, a strong National convention and thedeployment of the best closer in U.S. Politics, President Bill Clinton, has helpedPresident Obama regain the lead in Michigan within the margin of error andSenator Stabenow gain a lead outside of the margin of error. Mitt Romney and PeteHoekstra are still within striking distance which means a significant amount of work will be necessary for Democrats to move Michigan from
the “
tossup
to
“s
afeDemocrat
column.
The past month has helped top of the ballot Democratic candidates regain advantages inMichigan. In spite of the initial bounce that Congressman Paul Ryan provided for Mitt Romneyand Pete Hoekstra, Michigan has narrowly reset for President Obama and Senator DebbieStabenow. Our current poll, conducted on September 12, President Obama leads Republicannominee Mitt Romney 45.49% to 43.65%, a lead of 1.84 points, which is within the margin of error of 2.88%. In the Foster McCollum White Baydoun
(FMW)
B
 
poll for Fox 2 News Detroit,of Michigan most likely voters in August, President Obama had lost his slight lead of 1.14 pointsand was trailing Romney by 3.8 points, a net swing of 5.21 points from June. The current shiftfrom Romney back to Obama now is 5.64 points. The margin swing is greater in the MichiganUnited States Senate contest. Congressman Pete Hoekstra had erased a 9.68 point deficit justbefore his primary victory in August and taken a 2.35 point lead (within the margin of error) over2 term Senator Debbie Stabenow. Senator Stabenow has now regained a 4.82 point lead(Stabenow 46.74% to Hoekstra 41.92%). Our data reveals that Michigan is still a battlegroundstate for not just the Presidential campaign but also the national battle between the RepublicanParty and Democratic Party for control of the U.S. Senate.
The past month has helped President Obama regain traction with a number of votinggroups he must win or be competitive with
,”
per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollumWhite Baydoun
. “The campaign is
still very fluid, as we identified in June and August. Neithercampaign can afford to take Michigan and its 16 electoral votes for granted over the next twomonths.
President’s campaign needs to shift its focus towards presenting more of a business case
narrative of why voters should re-elect President Obama while better defining why Romney/Ryanis not good for America.
 
 
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
 2
“The data prompts further study
for both by the Obama and Romney teams,
statedAttorney Tarek Baydoun, political
analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. “
The fact thatRomney is still leading in the major swing 4 counties that are harbingers for victory statewide and
is leading in ten of Michigan’s 14 congressional districts indicates that Michigan is still wide
open and the Democrat
’ ground game will play a crucial role in keeping Michigan Blue.”
 Additionally, the polling data suggests President Obama has gained support among thefollowing groups since our August poll:
 
Male voters.
 
White male voters.
 
7 of the 8 Congressional Districts that Obama was trailing in our August poll.
 
Southeastern Michigan.Governor Romney has gained support among the following groups since our August poll:
 
White women.
 
The Thumb Region of Michigan.
 
The 7
th
and 9
th
Congressional district.We asked respondents which candidate they trust to honor their campaign pledges andwork to solve the problems of America. President Obama had a slight advantage, with 45.10%indicating they are more likely to trust Obama and 42.12% more likely to trust Romney. Weasked respondents if they had a clear understanding of the Romney campaign
’s
plans to solve
America’s problems. In spite of the f 
act that Romney has been campaigning for the past fewyears, only 51.15% of Michigan respondents believe they have a clear understanding of Mitt
Romney’s policies. The data suggest that Romney must provide more detail about his policies.
Considering the length of time that Romney has spent trying to reach voters he should have ahigher clarity level among the respondents.Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)
B
, a national public opinion polling and voteranalytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of FosterMcCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan)conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likelyNovember 2012 General election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences for:A.
 
The baseline for Presidential General Election Preference.B.
 
The baseline for United State Senate General Election Preference.C.
 
Voters’ preference for 
trusting the Presidential candidates.D.
 
Voters’ preference for understanding Candidate Romney’s platform and
policies.E.
 
The baseline for all six Michigan Statewide ballot proposals.This sixteen question automated poll survey was conducted on September 12, 2012 andwas commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit. The aggregate Michigan Statewide polling studysample size of 1,155 respondents has a 2.88% margin of error, with a confidence level of 95%.To view the reports of our polling studies on the President, United States Senate and otherpolitical topics for Fox 2 News online, please click the following links -http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/category/237819/politics 
 
 
Foster McCollum White & Associates______________________________________________________________________________________
United States Presidential General Election
We ballot-tested the Presidential candidates and we also tested the following two areas of initial campaign impact and awareness:
 
Trusting either of the Presidential candidates to honor their campaign pledges and work 
to solve America’s problems
.
 
Level of understanding of 
Candidate Romney’s platform and policies
.The results will indicate the effect that party conventions had on helping either candidate gainthe trust of Michigan voters to follow their pledges to implementation. We were also able todetermine if the Republican and Democratic criticism
of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan’s
communications about the details of their plans is effective. As our data outlines, the Democraticconvention has helped President Obama more than Romney and Romney /Ryan face a serious achallenge in communicating the details of their policy plans to Michigan voters. Our aggregatefindings for this section are as follows:
State-wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of electorate)
 – 
1156 Respondents MOE +/- 2.88%Question 1:
 The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who areyou more likely to vote for in the election?
?
(President Barack Obama): 45.49%(Governor Mitt Romney): 43.65%(Another candidate): 5.48%(Undecided): 5.38%

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