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Italy at the Half Way Mark 2012

Italy at the Half Way Mark 2012

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Published by Mazziero Research
This study, in Italian language, examines the quarterly evolution of Italy's sovereign debt and its rating in comparison to the Eurozone countries, its stock of government bonds, official reserves, GDP, inflation and unemployment.
Please see also: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2147398
Authors: Mazziero, Maurizio, Baggiani, Leonardo, Fait, Silvano and Lawford, Andrew
This study, in Italian language, examines the quarterly evolution of Italy's sovereign debt and its rating in comparison to the Eurozone countries, its stock of government bonds, official reserves, GDP, inflation and unemployment.
Please see also: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2147398
Authors: Mazziero, Maurizio, Baggiani, Leonardo, Fait, Silvano and Lawford, Andrew

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Published by: Mazziero Research on Sep 16, 2012
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ItalianDebtObserver
 Independent Analysis of Italian Economic Data
Italy-atthehalf-waymarkin2012
MAZZIERORESEARCH
Copyright ©2012 –
 Allrightsreserved   
This document and its contents may be freely distributed as long as the source is cited
 
 Authors
Debt Observer: Maurizio MazzieroIn Depth: Leonardo BaggianiSilvano Fait Andrew Lawford
Contents
Introduction Page 2Ratings Page 3Thebankingsystem Page 7PublicDebt Page 5TheStockofGovernmentDebt Page10BankofItalyReserves Page11GrossDomesticProduct Page16Inflation Page18Unemployment Page21InDepth Page23
FocusbyIdeasHaveConsequences.org
Page23
CommentbyAndrewLawford
Page31Conclusion Page33Glossary&Bibliography Page34
 
 Abstract:
This study examines thequarterly evolution of  Italy's sovereign debt,its stock of government bonds, official reserves,GDP, inflation and unemployment.
 
2
I am pleased to present the seventh edition of the ItalianDebt Observer (the second that has been translated intoEnglish), a project that has the scope of evaluating theeconomic situation in Italy on the basis of the availablequarterly data. I would invite any readers of the Englishedition to register for future updates: please send an e-mail toinfo@mazzieroresearch.comwith “English DebtObserver” in the subject heading and we’ll be happy toforward details to you of future editions. Please be assuredthat our privacy policy is never to share the e-mailaddresses of our contacts.Today, the Debt Observer is a fixture in the publications of Mazziero Research and IdeasHaveConsequences and oneto which we dedicate significant resources. Nevertheless,it is the authors' intention to distribute the publicationfreely to all those who find it of interest. In this context, itis pleasing to see the increasing interest in this study evenin the mainstream press.The previous English edition of the Observer can be foundhere
.  
This editions presents a number of differences in terms of its presentation; the changes have the aim of encouragingrapid access to individual data that is of interest to thereader. In particular:• Each topic is divided more clearly.• Each section has a table or graph.• Each topic is divided into two categories:
Facts
, presented in a concise list.
Comment,
 which examines the data ingreater detail and provides an evaluation. As with the previous English edition, those readersunfamiliar with Italian debt, economic or political terms will find definitions of text appearing in blue in theglossary on page 34.I would like to note that not all the authors necessarily agree with all of the comments made in the Observer; eachof us is responsible for his own section alone.Before leaving the reader to explore the rest of thisdocument, I must once again thank again LeonardoBaggiani, Silvano Fait and Andrew Lawford who haveprovided the "In Depth" sections towards the end of thispublication.
 Maurizio Mazziero
Introduction
 
3
Facts
• 13 June 2012, Moody's downgrades Spain from A3 to Baa3 and Cyprus from Ba1 to Ba3.• 13 July 2012, Moody's downgrades Italy from A3 to Baa2.• 23 July 2012, Moody's changes the outlook for Germany, The Netherlands andLuxembourg from stable to negative; Finland's outlook remains stable.• 25 July 2012, Moody's changes the outlook for the EFSF from stable to negative.2 August 2012, Moody's downgrades Slovenia from A2 to Baa2.7 August 2012, S&P changes the outlook for Greece from stable to negative.3 September, Moody's changes the outlook for the EU from stable to negative.
Comment
 Again in this edition of the Debt Observer we note a series of changes in sovereigncreditworthiness by the rating agencies, mostly on the downside, with the exception of Finland that continues to hold its triple-A position with two stable and two negativeoutlooks.
Table 1
shows a schematic summary of the ratings assigned by the various agencies; theChinese agency Dagong has been added in this edition.
Table 2
shows thecorrespondence between the ratings levels of the various agencies.
Table 1: Ratings of selected countries(Source: Various rating agencies)
Ratings

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