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AZ-09 GBA Strategies for HMP, AFSCME & EMILY (Sept. 2012)

AZ-09 GBA Strategies for HMP, AFSCME & EMILY (Sept. 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Sep 16, 2012
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09/16/2012

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1901 L Street, NW Suite 702, Washington, DC 20036 | Tel: 202-621-1411 | Fax: 202-785-5305gbastrategies.com
To: Interested partiesFrom: GBA StrategiesDate: September 13, 2012
AZ-09 Survey: Democrats in Strong Position to Win New Congressional Seat
A new survey
1
in
Arizona’s new 9
th
congressional district shows that Democrat KyrstenSinema is well-positioned to win her contest against Republican Vernon Parker. While this isprimed to be a competitive race, Sinema begins with a slight lead that she is able to build upononce voters hear more information about both candidates.
 
Obama leads Romney in this Democratic-leaning district.
The 9
th
district is favorableterrain for Democrats
 — 
President Obama leads Governor Romney here by a 50
 – 
44 percentmargin. While Republicans hold a slight registration advantage among likely voters here,Independents in this newly drawn district lean strongly toward the Democrats. PresidentObama would have won the district by four points in 2008, despite home state Senator John
McCain’s presence on the ballot.
 
 
Sinema starts with a lead over Parker
. In a head to head match-up, Kyrsten Sinema holdsa 4-point lead over Vernon Parker, 45
 – 
41 percent. Among self-described Independent
voters, Sinema’s
lead is 7 points (41
 – 
34 percent).
 
Voters respond well to Sinema’s profile
.
In an effort to simulate the back-and-forthcommunications of a campaign, we provide balanced positive profiles of both candidates,reflecting the messages they have advanced on their websites and in their paidcommunications to date. After voters hear positive profiles about both candidates, Sinemaincreases her advantage over Parker to 50
 – 
 
42 percent. Voters respond well to Sinema’s
background as a social worker and her work in the state legislature on education and
children’s health care.
 
1
This survey of AZ-09 was conducted by GBA Strategies from September 8-10, 2012. It interviewed 400 likelyvoters for the November elections, on both landlines and cell phones. Results are subject to a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.

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