The Efficiency of the Government Compared to the Thermal Efficiency of a Heat Engine

Review of the Historical US Government Receipts-Surplus (Deficit) Relation Part III

1. Summary
The basic equation governing the financial performance of the government, Surplus = Receipts Outlays, or S = (R O), can be compared to the basic equation describing the performance of all heat engines, Work = Heat in Heat Out, or W = (Q1 Q2). Both these equations are also exactly analogous to the fundamental equation, Profits = Revenues Cost, or P = (R C), describing the financial performance of a company. The thermal efficiency of the heat engine is defined as the ratio = W/Q1. This is similar to the well-known profit margin, m = P/R, used as a measure of the financial performance of a company. Thus, we can define the financial efficiency of the government as the ratio E = S/R, the ratio of the Surplus S to the Receipts R. Many companies report negative profits (losses), sometimes even consistently. The airline sector is a notable one in this regard. Likewise, we find that the government has been reporting negative surpluses (deficits) consistently year after year. However, a budget surplus was reported for four consecutive years during the second term of the Clinton presidency (1998-2001). The US also enjoyed uninterrupted budget surpluses from 1920 to 1930, the period often called the Roaring Twenties. Unfortunately, this period ended with the stock market crash in 1929 which then led to the Great Depression.
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A review of all of the historical Surplus-Receipts-Outlays (S, R, O) data for the US Government, from 1901 to 2011, indicates that a budget surplus was produced for 30 of these 111 years. Thus, we can compute the efficiency E of the government, at least for the years with a surplus. The calculations reveal that the efficiency E varied from a low value of 0.33% in 1960 to a high value of 28.8% in 1927. Double digit efficiencies of 18.3% to 28.8% were observed during the Roaring Twenties. The maximum efficiency during the Clinton term was 11.7%. Thus, it is clear the Government Engine has the potential to operate with efficiencies in the range of 20% to 30%. This is indeed remarkable, since every good scientist and engineer knows that this is also the typical thermal efficiency of a modern engine, such as the gasoline engine that powers our cars, or the jet engines that power aircrafts. However, it is also clear that the Government Engine is now working erratically, much like the old Newcomen steam engines that James Watt studied as a young man when he was beginning his career. The improvements made by Watt ensured that the steam engine worked consistently, every time it was turned on, and produced useful power. This led to the Industrial Revolution and ultimately to the modern era where a rocket engine can take a spacecraft to Mars and land a Rover named Curiosity on its surface which can be controlled from here on Earth. Perhaps, someday, in the not too distant future, we will achieve the same level of understanding of the Government Engine and make it work consistently and efficiently to produce a surplus year after year.

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Table of Contents
No.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Topic
Summary Introduction The Cut-off or the Minimum Receipts for the Government The Erratic Government Engine List of References Appendix I: Bibliography of Related Articles

Page No.
1 4 4 8 12 14

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 2. Introduction
In the first two articles of this series, we discussed a remarkable, and heretofore seemingly unknown, relationship between the Surplus and the Receipts of the US Government which was manifested during the Clinton years, 1994-2001, see Ref. [1], and also during early years going back to 1901-1916, which cover the period from the McKinley presidency to the first term of the Wilson presidency, Ref.[2]. Equation 1 below, relating the Surplus S, the Receipts R, and the Outlays O, is the basic equation governing the financial performance of the government. This is exactly analogous to equations 2 to 4, the significance of which has been discussed in Refs. [2, 3]. Surplus = Receipts Outlays Or, S = R O Profits = Revenues Costs Work = Heat In Heat Out Or, P = R C Or, W = Q1 Q2 (1) (2) (3)

Electron energy = Photon energy Work function, or K = E W (4) Equation 2 describes the performance of all companies motivated by a profit. Equation 3 describes the performance of all heat engines, such as the engines used in modern automobiles, locomotives, the jet engines used in aircrafts, and rocket engines. Equation 4 is the statement of Einsteins photoelectric law, published in 1905, which also, incidentally, fetched him the Nobel Prize (not the theory of relativity, or E = mc2, which we associate with Einstein). The significance of the analogies being alluded to here has been discussed in the references cited. Here we will only note briefly the significance of Einsteins photoelectric law as it applies to our discussion of the (S, R, O) data. Essentially, energy in physics behaves exactly like money in economics, and vice versa.

3. The Cut-off or Minimum Receipts for the Government

The energy of the photon E = hf is exactly like the receipts of the government, or the revenues of a company. Only a portion of the photons energy appears as the
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energy K of the electron. The rest must be given up to do the work W to overcome the forces that bind the electron to the metal. This energy that must be given up W, is called the work function of the metal and is exactly analogous to the Costs C of a company or the Outlays O of the government. Not all of the revenues R generated by a company will appear as profits P. Some of it has to be given up as costs C and appears in society in the form of money that is essentially being transferred from its customers to its suppliers, vendors, employees, etc. Likewise, not all of the receipts R of the government will appear as a Surplus S. Some of it must be given up in the form of Outlays O and appears in society.
400
300 200 100 0

Surplus, y [$, billions]

Clinton years y = hx + c = h(x x0) = 0.5845x 945.04 = 0.5845 (x 1616.93) r2 = 0.998

2000 2001

x0
-100

1994
-200
-300 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Receipts, x [$, billions]

Figure 1: The US recently enjoyed a budget surplus, for four consecutive years, under President Clinton. As the government receipts increased, surpluses also increased, following a simple linear law as shown here. Deficits disappeared when receipts exceeded the cut-off level x0 = - c/h = $1616.93 billion. Thus, Einsteins idea of a work function W can be extended to many problems outside physics. Since E = hf, Einsteins law becomes K = hf W = h(f f0). Here
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h is the universal constant called the Planck constant and f is the frequency. The photon energy E must exceed the minimum value W = hf0 to produce an electron. Also, just like there is a minimum, or cut-off, frequency f0 = W/h in physics that must be exceeded for electrons to appear, there is a minimum revenue x0 that must be exceeded before profits will appear, when we are considering the financial performance of a company. Likewise, a minimum receipt x0 that must be exceeded, before a surplus will appear, when we consider the financial performance of the government. All three problems are governed by the same mathematical law, which can be expressed as y = hx + c = h(x x0). Depending on the problem of interest, x is revenues or receipts, or the energy of the photon and y is profits (or losses), or surplus (or deficits), or the electron energy. The nonzero intercept c is a generalized work function. As applied to the economy and a company, it can be thought of as the economic work function.
40 20

x0

Surplus, y [$, billions]

0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140 -160 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

1979 1976

y = 0.1997x 133.3 = 0.2 (x 667.2)

Receipts, x [$, billions]

Figure 2: The Surplus (Deficits)-Receipts diagram for four consecutive fiscal years 1976-1979 (Ford-Carter terms). Although no surplus was reported, the trend of
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decreasing deficits (mathematically equivalent to increasing surpluses) is obvious. Extrapolating the straight line joining the data for 1976 and 1979 suggests that further increases in the receipts should produce a surplus when the receipts exceed the cut-off, or minimum value of x0 = $667.2 billion. As receipts x increase we expect the deficits y to decrease and turn into surpluses at even higher receipts. Based on the study of the historical (S, R, O) data for the years 1901-2011, this general behavior seems to have been observed in at least three different eras, most notably in the Clinton era. In other words, there is clear empirical evidence for a minimum, or cut-off, receipt x0. This has been observed during the Clinton terms, Refs.[1,3], see Figure 1, and also during the years 1901-1916, which cover the period from the McKinley presidency to the first Woodrow Wilson term, see graph presented in Ref.[2], and, finally during the years 1976-1979. The Surplus-Receipts (S-R) diagram for this period is presented in Figure 2 of the present article. Notice that exactly the same linear trend, with deficits decreasing with increasing receipts, was observed between 1976 and 1979 and in the Clinton years. The data for the years 1977 and 1978 fall on either side of the straight line joining the data for 1976 and 1979. An extrapolation of this trend suggests that the US government had a fixed cost of about $667.2 billion (see breakeven model presented in Ref. [1]). Hence, a surplus should appear when the receipts exceed this cut-off level. The (S, R, O) data reveals that the 1984 the receipts were $66.438 billion and crossed the cut-off in 1985, when receipts increased to $734.037 billion. However, no surpluses appeared. The deficit for 1985 was $212.308 billion, which is equal to 71% of the receipts in 1976. In other words, the fixed costs had gone up significantly between 1979 and 1985. Notice also that the estimated fixed cost, or cut-off receipt was $1616.93 billion for the Clinton years, more than the cut-off estimated from the 1976-1979 data. Indeed, the cut-off (x0) during the Clinton years was more than double the receipts for 1985, when a surplus should have been reported. Clearly, the Government Engine is not working smoothly. Imagine a steam engine consuming twice the amount of coal and still refusing to turn on and
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produce any power. Well, that was what the old Newcomen engines did before James Watt. Some days, they would just huff and puff and quit!

4. The Erratic Government Engine

The budget surplus was reported for the years 1947-1949, 1956-57, 1960, and 1969. Surpluses were also reported on eight occasions between 1901 to 1916, before the uninterrupted surpluses observed from 1920 to 1930, see Table 2. Thats a total of 8 + 11 + 7 + 4 = 30 years of surplus from 1901 to 2011, or less than 30% of the time. A schematic diagram for the Government Engine (GVE), based on equations 1 to 4, was suggested in Ref. [2] and is reproduced below.

Q1
Heat Source

Q2
Heat Sink Money Source

M1

M2
Money Sink

W
Diagram of Heat Engine

P
Diagram of Profits Engine

A heat engine, like the modern engines used in an automobile or a jet aircraft, receives heat Q1 from a heat source and converts it into useful mechanical work W (which is used to produce the desired motion). However, not all of the heat Q1 appears as W. Some of it, the amount Q2 must be given up. The early heat engines, before the studies of James Watt on an old Newcomen engine, did not produce useful work W, in a consistent manner (see Ref. [2] and the references therein). Likewise, we can conceive a Profits Engine to describe the operation of a company, using the analogy of energy in physics is just like money in economics. The money M1 received from the source (customers) is converted into profits P. However, not all of the M1 is converted into profits. Some of it must be
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Table 1: Budget Surpluses from 1901-2011

Surplus Outlays (x y) GVE (Deficit), y $, billions Efficiency % $, billions E = S/R = y/x 0.588 0.063 0.525 10.71 1901 0.562 0.077 0.485 13.70 1902 0.562 0.045 0.517 8.01 1903 0.595 0.025 0.57 4.20 1906 0.666 0.087 0.579 13.06 1907 0.702 0.011 0.691 1.57 1911 0.693 0.003 0.69 0.43 1912 0.761 0.048 0.713 6.31 1916 6.649 0.291 6.358 4.38 1920 5.571 0.509 5.062 9.14 1921 4.026 0.736 3.29 18.28 1922 3.853 0.713 3.14 18.51 1923 3.871 0.963 2.908 24.88 1924 3.641 0.717 2.924 19.69 1925 3.795 0.865 2.93 22.79 1926 4.013 1.155 2.858 28.78 1927 3.900 0.939 2.961 24.08 1928 3.862 0.734 3.128 19.01 1929 4.058 0.738 3.32 18.19 1930 38.514 4.018 34.496 10.43 1947 41.56 11.796 29.764 28.38 1948 39.415 0.580 38.835 1.47 1949 74.587 3.947 70.64 5.29 1956 79.990 3.412 76.578 4.27 1957 92.191 0.301 91.89 0.33 1960 186.882 3.242 183.64 1.73 1969 1721.728 69.270 1652.458 4.02 1998 1827.452 125.610 1701.842 6.87 1999 2025.191 236.241 1788.95 11.67 2000 1991.082 128.236 1862.846 6.44 2001 The Efficiency E = y/x = S/R is analogous to the profit margin = Profits/Revenues. Year Receipts, x $, billions given up . This is the cost of operation and like heat Q2 which appears in the environment, the money M2 also appears in the environment in which the company
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(its supplier, vendors, and as wages for employees, etc.). The same applies for the Government Engine (GVE), The receipts are just like revenues of a company and the outlays just like the costs. Following the definition used for the thermal efficiency of a heat engine, or the financial efficiency of a company (the profit margin), we can define the efficiency of the GVE as the ratio E = S/R = y/x. The values, converted to a percent, are listed in the last column of Table 2. As we see here the efficiency varies widely, from a low of 0.33% in 1960 to a high of 28.8% in 1927. In other words, the GVE has the potential to operate with an efficiency as high as 30%.

Fuel Economy: Where the Energy Goes

Only about 14%26% of the energy from the fuel you put in your tank gets used to move your car down the road, depending on the drive cycle. The rest of the energy is lost to engine and driveline inefficiencies or used to power accessories. Therefore, the potential to improve fuel efficiency with advanced technologies is enormous. Courtesy: http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/images/energy_requirements_combined.jpg A typical gasoline engine has an efficiency of about 25% (see here). A nice roadmap for thermal efficiency improvements, by Japanese Society of Mechanical Engineers, may be found here.

This is indeed quite remarkable, since this is also roughly the efficiency of a modern heat engine. Consider, for example the Ideal Carnot efficiency for an engine receiving heat Q1 at temperature T1 and rejecting the heat Q2 to a sink at temperature T2 (the atmosphere). The efficiency is given by the formula = W/Q1 = 1 (Q2/Q1) = 1 (T2/T1) (5)

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The heat sink temperature T2, being the environment temperature cannot be changed significantly. (In colder climates, it would be lower and this would improve the efficiency, for a discussion of this point, click here). The heat source temperature can however, be raised. The hotter the source temperature T1 the higher the efficiency. This too has its limits since an engine that runs hotter requires special (and more expensive) materials of construction. For example, stainless pipes are used in high performance engines (specialty motor cycles, luxury cars) to carry the hotter exhaust gases produced by such an engine. Setting T2 = 25C = 298 K (Kelvins) and T1 = 1000C = 1273 K, the theoretical maximum thermal efficiency = 0.766 (76.6%). Real engines have an efficiency of about 30% to 40%; see also the thermal efficiency (TE) calculations for typical gasoline engines here. The thermal efficiencies given as 20.4% (for a turbocharged engine) and 28.3% (for a 300 horsepower, Lycoming IO-540-K, L, or M series engine). Some additional references are provided at the end of this article. The highest efficiency of the GVE, as observed to date, is also in the same range. During the roaring twenties, double digit efficiencies were observed from 19221930. Comparatively, during the Clinton years, the maximum efficiency was only about 12%. Perhaps, these differences tell us something about the environmental conditions, or the notion of temperature that we can associate with money source and the money sink. This is a topic for future research. Like James Watt, we have just started our study of the operation of the Profits Engine and the Government Engine. Like James Watt, we must learn how to make these engines work more consistently and discover the laws that govern their performance. Improvements made by Watt to the old Newcomen engine led to the Industrial Revolution. The theoretical understanding of its operations, coupled with good empirical observations, now permit us to design an engine that can deliver any rated horsepower every time it is turned on. Likewise, the study of the (S, R, O) data, the most basic observations made on the Government Engine, will someday help us design it to produce a surplus year after year.
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 5. List of References
1. The Amazing US Government Surplus (Deficits)-Receipts Relation during the Clinton Presidency, http://www.scribd.com/doc/105821230/The-AmazingUS-Government-Receipts-Surplus-Relation-during-the-Clinton-Presidency, Published Sep 13, 2012. 2. A Brief Review of the Historical US Government Receipts-Surplus (Deficit) Relation, http://www.scribd.com/doc/106003088/A-Brief-Review-of-theHistorical-US-Government-Surplus-Receipts-Relation , Published Sep 15, 2012. 3. The Clinton Budget Surpluses, http://www.scribd.com/doc/105819500/TheClinton-Budget-Surpluses-Treating-Government-like-a-Business, Published Sep 13, 2012 , Google financial data for early years may be found in Table 2. 4. Carnot Efficiency, sindark.com, June 2, 2009, by Milan Ilnyckyj, http://www.sindark.com/photo/CarnotChart.PNG 5. Converting Fuel into Horsepower, EPI Inc., http://www.epieng.com/piston_engine_technology/thermal_efficiency.htm 6. Thermal Efficiency, Wikipedia.org, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_efficiency 7. Fuel Economy: Where the Energy Goes, http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml 8. Theory of Engine Operation, webtools.delmarlearning.com http://webtools.delmarlearning.com/sample_chapters/1401882625_Ch2.pdf See Thermal Efficiency on page 38. (Following is extracted from this section: Gasoline engines waste about two-thirds of the heat energy. By the time the vehicle is actually moving the overall efficiency is about 15%.) 9. Diesel Engine and Otto Engine thermal efficiency, Section 4.6 Internal Combustion Engines, http://www.egr.msu.edu/~lira/supp/pg160expanded.pdf 10.The Biggest Engine of Economic Growth?, By Colin Greer, newwf.org, March 19, 2012, http://newwf.org/blog/2012-03-19-the-biggest-engine-ofeconomic-growth

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11.Google: A Lovable One trick Pony, scribd.com, July 1, 2012. http://www.scribd.com/doc/98825141/Google-A-Lovable-One-Trick-PonyAnother-Single-Product-Company-Analyzed-Using-the-New-Methodology See Figures 1 and 2 and Table 1. Recent articles on the US National Debt 1. From Debt-free to $16T: Lessons to be learned, Sep 11, 2012, scribd.com, http://www.scribd.com/doc/105651734/From-Debt-Free-to-16T-Lessons-tobe-learned 2. The US National Debt Growth Rate: The Clinton-Bush-Obama Transitions, Sep 6, 2012. www.scribd.com < http://www.scribd.com/doc/105058946/The-US-National-Debt-GrowthRate-The-Clinton-Bush-Obama-Transition > 3. The Rate of Growth of the National Debt: The Obama versus Bush years, Sep 4, 2012. www.scribd.com < http://www.scribd.com/doc/104803209/The-Rate-of-Growth-of-theNational-Debt-The-Obama-versus-the-Bush-years > 4. Is Taxing the Rich an Option for Budget Deficit Reduction?, Sep 2, 2012. www.scribd.com < http://www.scribd.com/doc/104661297/Is-Taxingthe-Rich-an-Option-for-Budget-Deficit-Reduction > Analysis of Financial Data of Companies 5. A Second Look at Microsoft after the Quarterly Loss, July 30, 2012, www.scribd.com < http://www.scribd.com/doc/101518117/A-Second-Lookat-Microsoft-After-the-Historic-Quarterly-Loss > 6. The Perfect Apple II, July 30, 2012, www.scribd.com < http://www.scribd.com/doc/101503988/The-Perfect-Apple-II > 7. Kia: A Disappearing Brand, July 6, 2012, www.scribd.com http://www.scribd.com/doc/99333764/Kia-Motor-Company-A-DisppearingBrand, Published July 6, 2012.

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 6. Appendix I Bibliography of Related Articles

Posted at this website Since Facebook IPO on May 18, 2012
The first article listed below discusses a little known mathematical property of a straight line. Figures 1 to 3 in this article provide the philosophical basis for considering the significance of a nonzero intercept c as it applies to many problems in the real world. We make observations (x and y values of interest to us) to deduce y/x, usually called rates, ratios, or percentages. 1. http://www.scribd.com/doc/102000311/A-Little-Known-MathematicalProperty-of-a-Straight-Line-Strange-but-true-there-is-one Published August 4, 2012. Financial data (Profits-Revenues) analysis and Generalization of Plancks law beyond physics. 2. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95906902/Simple-Mathematical-Laws-GovernCorporate-Financial-Behavior-A-Brief-Compilation-of-Profits-RevenuesData Current article with all others above cited for completeness, Published June 4, 2012 with several revisions incorporating more examples. 3. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94647467/Three-Types-of-Companies-FromQuantum-Physics-to-Economics Basic discussion of three types of companies, Published May 24, 2012. Examples of Google, Facebook, ExxonMobil, Best Buy, Ford, Universal Insurance Holdings 4. http://www.scribd.com/doc/96228131/The-Perfect-Apple-How-it-can-bedestroyed Detailed discussion of Apple Inc. data. Published June 7, 2012. 5. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95140101/Ford-Motor-Company-Data-RevealsMount-Profit Ford Motor Company graph illustrating pronounced maximum point, Published May 29, 2012.

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6. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95329905/Planck-s-Blackbody-Radiation-LawRederived-for-more-General-Case Generalization of Plancks law, Published May 30, 2012. 7. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94325593/The-Future-of-Facebook-I Facebook and Google data are compared here. Published May 21, 2012. 8. http://www.scribd.com/doc/94103265/The-FaceBook-Future Published May 19, 2012 (the day after IPO launch on Friday May 18, 2012). 9. http://www.scribd.com/doc/95728457/What-is-Entropy Discussion of the meaning of entropy (using example given by Boltzmann in 1877, later also used by Planck to develop quantum physics in 1900). The example here shows the concepts of entropy S and energy U (and the derivative T = dU/dS) can be extended beyond physics with energy = money, or any property of interest. Published June 3, 2012. 10.The Future of Southwest Airlines, Completed June 14, 2012 (to be published). http://www.scribd.com/doc/102835946/The-Future-for-SouthwestAirlines-The-Unknown-Story-of-Rising-Costs-and-the-Maximum-Point-onProfits-Revenues-Curve Published August 14, 2012. 11.The Air Tran Story: An Important Link to the Future of Southwest Airlines, Completed June 27, 2012 (to be published). http://www.scribd.com/doc/102832984/The-Air-Tran-Story-The-Merger-andMaximum-Point-on-Profits-Revenues-Graph Published August 14, 2012. 12.Annies Inc. A Single-Product Company Analyzed using a New Methodology, http://www.scribd.com/doc/98652561/Annie-s-Inc-A-SingleProduct-Company-Analyzed-Using-a-New-Methodology Published June 29, 2012 13.Google Inc. A Lovable One-Trick Pony Another Single-product Company Analyzed using the New Methodology. http://www.scribd.com/doc/98825141/Google-A-Lovable-One-Trick-PonyAnother-Single-Product-Company-Analyzed-Using-the-New-Methodology, Published July 1, 2012. 14.GT Advanced Technologies, Inc. Analysis of Recent Financial Data, Completed on July 4, 2012. (To be published).
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15.Disappearing Brands: Research in Motion Limited. An Interesting type of Maximum Point on the Profits-Revenues Graph http://www.scribd.com/doc/99181402/Research-in-Motion-RIM-Limited-WillDisappear-in-2013 Published July 5, 2012. 16.Kia Motor Company: A Disappearing Brand http://www.scribd.com/doc/99333764/Kia-Motor-Company-A-DisppearingBrand, Published July 6, 2012. 17.The Perfect Apple-II: Taking A Second Bite: A Simple Methodology for Revenues Predictions (Completed July 8, 2012, To be Published) http://www.scribd.com/doc/101503988/The-Perfect-Apple-II, Published July 30, 2012. 18.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101062823/A-Fresh-Look-at-Microsoft-After-itsHistoric-Quarterly-Loss Microsoft after the quarterly loss, Published July 25, 2012. 19.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101518117/A-Second-Look-at-Microsoft-After-theHistoric-Quarterly-Loss , Published July 30, 2012. 20.http://www.scribd.com/doc/103265909/A-Brief-Analysis-of-Groupon-s-ProfitsRevenues-Data Published August 19, 2012. 21.http://www.scribd.com/doc/103027366/Groupon-Analysis-of-ProfitsRevenues-Data-and-its-Business-Model Published August 16, 2012. More detailed analysis including discussion of the idea of a work function. 22.http://www.scribd.com/doc/103369016/Analysis-of-Zynga-s-Profits-RevenuesData-Maximum-point-on-the-profits-revenues-curve Published August 20, 2012.

General Motors Financial Data 23.http://www.scribd.com/doc/103600274/The-New-GM-A-Brief-Analysis-of-theProfits-Revenues-Data-through-1Q2011, Published May 9, 2011 and again on August 22, 2012, Discussion of the new GM data from 1Q2010 to 1Q2011. 24.http://www.scribd.com/doc/103607023/Why-Can-t-General-Motors-be-morelike-Microsoft-The-new-GM-may-just-be Published August 22, 2012. 25.http://www.scribd.com/doc/103938349/GM-Before-the-Bankruptcy-MaximumPoint-on-Profits-Revenue-Graph GM Before the Bankruptcy: Maximum point on the profits-revenues graph, Published August 25, 2012.
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****************************************************************** The Unemployment Problem: Evidence for a Universal value of h in the unemployment law. 26.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100984613/Further-Empirical-Evidence-for-theUniversal-Constant-h-and-the-Economic-Work-Function-Analysis-ofHistorical-Unemployment-data-for-Japan-1953-2011 Single universal value of h for US, Canada and Japan in the unemployment law y = hx + c, Published July 24, 2012. 27.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100939758/An-Economy-Under-StressPreliminary-Analysis-of-Historical-Unemployment-Data-for-Japan, Published July 24, 2012. 28.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100910302/Further-Evidence-for-a-UniversalConstant-h-and-the-Economic-Work-Function-Analysis-of-US-1941-2011-andCanadian-1976-2011-Unemployment-Data Published July 24, 2012. 29.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100720086/A-Second-Look-at-Australian-2012Unemployment-Data, Published July 22, 2012. 30.http://www.scribd.com/doc/100500017/A-First-Look-at-AustralianUnemployment-Statistics-A-New-Methodology-for-Analyzing-UnemploymentData , Published July 19, 2012. 31.http://www.scribd.com/doc/99857981/The-Highest-US-Unemployment-RatesObama-years-compared-with-historic-highs-in-Unemployment-levels , Published July 12, 2012. 32.http://www.scribd.com/doc/99647215/The-US-Unemployment-Rate-Whathappened-in-the-Obama-years , Published July 10, 2012. **************************************************************** Traffic-fatality and Teen pregnancy problem 33.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101982715/Does-Speed-Kill-Forgotten-USHighway-Deaths-in-1950s-and-1960s Published August 4, 2012. 34.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101983375/Effect-of-Speed-Limits-on-FatalitiesTexas-Proofing-of-Vehciles Published August 4, 2012. 35.http://www.scribd.com/doc/101828233/The-US-Teenage-Pregnancy-Rates-1 Published August 2, 2012.
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36.http://www.scribd.com/doc/102384514/A-Second-Look-at-the-US-TeenagePregnancy-Rates-Evidence-for-a-Predominant-Natural-Law Published August 8, 2012. Government and National Debt 37.http://www.scribd.com/doc/104663110/The-United-States-Postal-Service-ATest-Case-to-Understand-the-US-Government-Inefficiencies-and-Budget-CutsAhead United States Postal Service: A Test case for government inefficiencies, Published Sep 2, 2012. 38.http://www.scribd.com/doc/104833993/Are-You-Better-Off-Than-You-WereFour-Years-Ago Published Sep 4, 2012. Briefly highlights the slowing down the debt growth rate as we cross the $16 T mark. The national debt could have been as high as $19.5T on August 30, 2012 if the high rate at the end of the Bush presidency had continued. 39.http://www.scribd.com/doc/104803209/The-Rate-of-Growth-of-the-NationalDebt-The-Obama-versus-the-Bush-years Published Sep 3, 2012. The importance of the debt growth rate h = dD/dt, as opposed to the debt level D, is emphasized. The significance of the debt growth rate does not seem to have been recognized, at least in the popular discussion. 40.http://www.scribd.com/doc/104677653/The-US-National-Debt-Brief-HistoryGood-News-The-Rate-of-Growth-of-the-Debt-is-Slowing-Down , Published Sep 1, 2012. Brief summary of the historical debt data starting with President George Washington with attention being drawn to the recent slowing down of the debt growth rate. The importance of the debt growth rate, as opposed to debt levels, does not seem to have been recognized, at least in the popular discussion. 41.http://www.scribd.com/doc/104659108/The-US-National-Debt-and-the-LongTerm, first published on June 17, 2011, and republished Sep 1, 2012. 42.http://www.scribd.com/doc/104659448/The-US-National-Debt-RetirementProgram, first published on June 23, 2011, before the debt default crisis which led to lowering of the US rating, republished Sep 1, 2012. 43.http://www.scribd.com/doc/104662291/A-Radical-Proposal-to-PermanentlyReduce-the-Unemployment-Rate, first published on October 13, 2011, republished Sep 1, 2012.
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44.http://www.scribd.com/doc/104661297/Is-Taxing-the-Rich-an-Option-forBudget-Deficit-Reduction, first published on July 3, 2011, republished Sep 1, 2012.

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About the author V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.

Email: vlaxmanan@hotmail.com The author obtained his Bachelors degree (B. E.) in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Poona and his Masters degree (M. E.), also in Mechanical Engineering, from the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, followed by a Masters (S. M.) and Doctoral (Sc. D.) degrees in Materials Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA. He then spent his entire professional career at leading US research institutions (MIT, Allied Chemical Corporate R & D, now part of Honeywell, NASA, Case Western Reserve University (CWRU), and General Motors Research and Development Center in Warren, MI). He holds four patents in materials processing, has co-authored two books and published several scientific papers in leading peer-reviewed international journals. His expertise includes developing simple mathematical models to explain the behavior of complex systems. While at NASA and CWRU, he was responsible for developing material processing experiments to be performed aboard the space shuttle and developed a simple mathematical model to explain the growth Christmas-tree, or snowflake, like structures (called dendrites) widely observed in many types of liquid-to-solid phase transformations (e.g., freezing of all commercial metals and alloys, freezing of water, and, yes, production of snowflakes!). This led to a simple model to explain the growth of dendritic structures in both the ground-based experiments and in the space shuttle experiments. More recently, he has been interested in the analysis of the large volumes of data from financial and economic systems and has developed what may be called the Quantum Business Model (QBM). This extends (to financial and economic systems) the mathematical arguments used by Max Planck to develop quantum physics using the analogy Energy = Money, i.e., energy in physics is like money in economics. Einstein applied Plancks ideas to describe the photoelectric effect (by treating light as being composed of particles called photons, each with the fixed quantum of energy conceived by Planck). The mathematical law deduced by
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Planck, referred to here as the generalized power-exponential law, might actually have many applications far beyond blackbody radiation studies where it was first conceived. Einsteins photoelectric law is a simple linear law, as we see here, and was deduced from Plancks non-linear law for describing blackbody radiation. It appears that financial and economic systems can be modeled using a similar approach. Finance, business, economics and management sciences now essentially seem to operate like astronomy and physics before the advent of Kepler and Newton.

Cover page of AirTran 2000 Annual

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