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Field Poll report

Field Poll report

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Published by: jon_ortiz on Sep 21, 2012
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09/25/2012

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Field Research Corporation is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action Employer  
THE FIELDPOLL
Field Research Corporation
601 California Street, Suite 900,San Francisco, CA 94108-2814415.392.5763
!
FAX: 415.434.2541field.com/fieldpollonline
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY 
BERKELEY • DAVIS • IRVINELOS ANGELES RIVERSIDE SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO
 
SANTA BARBARASANTA CRUZ
UCB ContactDr. Jack Citrin: 510-642-4692 (office)510-847-8306 (cell)
Release #
2426
Release Date:
Friday, September 21, 2012NO SIDE LEADS 44% TO 38% ON PROP. 32PAYROLL DEDUCTIONS INITIATIVE.LARGE PROPORTION UNDECIDED.MIXED VIEWS OF STATE’S NEWPENSION REFORM LAW.
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service issubject to revocation if publication or broadcasttakes place before release date or if contents aredivulged to persons outside of subscriber staff  prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin FieldProposition 32, the ballot initiative to reduce special-interest influence campaign spending in state politics, is shaping up to be a major heavyweight battle.A new survey conducted jointly by The Institute of Governmental Studies at (IGS) UC Berkeleyand
The Field Poll 
finds 38% of likely voters inclined to vote Yes, but a slightly larger proportion(44%) intending to vote No. A relatively large proportion (18%) are undecided.The poll finds that how voters view the influence of labor unions and corporations in state politicscorrelates with their voting intentions on Prop. 32. While pluralities of likely voters think bothgroups have too much influence in state political matters, more are critical of corporations (67%)than labor unions (47%). Voters who think labor unions have too much influence are more likely to be supportive of Prop. 32, but among the larger segment who think corporations have too muchinfluence the No side has the advantage.The poll also finds voter opinions of the state’s new pension reform law designed to rein in stateand local public sector employee pension costs are mixed. Statewide 18% of voters believe thechanges in the law went too far, 39% feel they were about right, and 26% say it didn’t go far enough. Another 17% have no opinion. Views about the law are also related to voter preferences of Prop. 32.These are the topline findings from The Institute of Governmental Studies UC Berkeley
-
Field Poll
 
conducted September 6-18 among a representative sample of likely voters in the upcoming November 6 statewide election.
Voter preferences on Prop. 32 overall and across key subgroups
The survey finds 38% of likely voters now disposed to vote Yes and 44% inclined to vote No. Arelatively large 18% were undecided at the time of the survey.
 
 IGS UC Berkeley-Field Poll #2426  Friday, September 21, 2012 Page 2
While there are some differences in the way political partisans feel about Prop. 32 they are notcurrently as great as exist on a host of other political issues.The poll finds Democrats on the No side by a two to one margin (52% to 24%), with a relativelylarge 24% undecided. Republicans favor the measure 52% to 37%, with a smaller proportion (11%)undecided. Independents favor the measure by eight points (45% Yes and 37% No).Voters in union households oppose Prop. 32 greater than two to one (61% to 28%), with 11%undecided. However, non-union household voters, who make up the large majority of the electorate,are narrowly supportive 41% to 38%, with many (21%) undecided.
Table 1Voter preferences about Proposition 32, thePayroll Deduction for Political Contributions initiative(among likely voters)Yes voter No voter UndecidedTotal 38% 44 18
Party registrationDemocrats 24% 52 24Republicans 52% 37 11 No party preference/other 45% 37 18RegionLos Angeles County25% 53 22Other Southern California48% 36 16Central Valley41% 41 18San Francisco Bay Area37% 43 20Other Northern California*30% 48 22Union affiliationUnion household 28% 61 11 Non-union household 41% 38 21Gender Male 42% 42 16Female 34% 45 21
* Small sample base.
How much influence do labor unions and corporations have in state politics?
The sample of likely voters was asked how much influence labor unions and corporations currentlyhave in California politics.While pluralities of voters see both groups as having too much influence, the proportion saying thisabout corporations (67%) is significantly greater than it is for labor unions (47%).
 
 IGS UC Berkeley-Field Poll #2426  Friday, September 21, 2012 Page 3
Table 2Voter perceptions about the influence that labor unionsand corporations have in California politics(among likely voters)Labor unions Corporations
Too much influence 47% 67%About the right amount 32 17Too little influence 15 11 No opinion 6 5
Perceived influence of corporations, labor unions in politics related to Prop. 32 vote
How voters view the influence of labor unions and corporations on state politics relates to votingintentions on Prop. 32. Among voters who think labor unions have too much influence the Yes sideleads on Prop. 32 50% to 37%. However among the larger segment of voters who think corporations have too much influence the No side leads 48% to 35%.
Table 3How views about the influence of labor unions/corporationsin California politics relate to voter preferences on Prop. 32(among likely voters)Vote preference on Prop. 32…Yes voter No voter UndecidedTotal voters 38% 44 18
Labor unionsToo much influence 50% 37 13About the right amount/too little27% 53 20CorporationsToo much influence 35% 48 17About the right amount/too little46% 36 18
Voter reactions to the state’s new pension reform law
Another survey question asked voters their views of a new law passed by the California legislatureand signed by Governor Jerry Brown that makes a number of changes to the state and local public pension system. Among other things, the law reduces pension benefits and increases the retirementage of newly hired state and local government workers, and requires all workers who are notcontributing half of their retirement costs to pay more.

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