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Macro-economic Report Excerpt
January 16, 2009
Employment data in December showed poorly performed GDP in Q4 2008.
American non-farm payrollsdeclined by 5.24mn in December; unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, which was the level in recession periodof 1981-1982 and the highest of 16 years.
Leading indicator, ISM indicated that American economy would not recover in Q1 2009.
PMI and ISMof non-manufacturing industries in America both decreased to levels of economic recession in 1981-1982.
Retail plunged in traditional selling seasons, which demonstrated that outrageous consumption inAmerica was in adjustment.
Consumption data and Consumer Confidence Index both sharply dropped tothose of recession period in 1990. However, extravagant consumption ratio was bound to lead furtherdecline of consumption.
In summary, current economic recession in America is most similar to that in 1981; Q4 2008 and Q12009 are predicted to see bottom and the recession might last until this year-end.
By Zhou Shiyi 
Economic Recession in AmericaLikely to Last until 2009 Year-end
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