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Quinnipiac September 2012 Swing State Poll

Quinnipiac September 2012 Swing State Poll

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Published by: jmicek on Sep 26, 2012
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FOR RELEASE: SEPTEMBER 26, 2012
OBAMA HAS BIG LEADS IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA,QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMESSWING STATE POLL FINDS
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FLORIDA: Obama 53 – Romney 44OHIO: Obama 53 – Romney 43PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 54 – Romney 42
President Barack Obama is over the magic 50 percent mark and tops Gov. Mitt Romney among likelyvoters by 9 to 12 percentage points in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a QuinnipiacUniversity/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.Voters in each state see President Obama as better than Gov. Romney to handle the economy,health care, Medicare, national security, an international crisis and immigration. Romney ties or inchesahead of the president on handling the budget deficit.Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White Housesince 1960 without taking at least two of them – shows:
Florida:
Obama leads Romney 53 – 44 percent, compared to 49 – 46 percent August 23;
Ohio:
Obama over Romney 53 – 43 percent, compared to 50 – 44 percent August 23;
Pennsylvania:
Obama tops Romney 54 – 42 percent, unchanged from 53 – 42 percentAugust 1.Likely voters say Obama can better handle the economy, the top issue listed by voters, 51 – 46 percent in Florida, 51 – 45 percent in Ohio and 51 – 45 percent in Pennsylvania.“Gov. Mitt Romney had a bad week in the media and it shows in these key swing states,” saidPeter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The furor over his 47 percent remark almost certainly is a major factor in the roughly double-digit leads President Barack Obama has in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The debates may be Romney’s best chance to reverse thetrend in his favor.”
(For a downloadable video of Quinnipiac Polling Institute Assistant Director Tim Malloy discussing the survey,click on www.http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1800)
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Peter A. Brown, AssistantDirector,Quinnipiac University PollingInstitute(203) 535-6203
Rubenstein Associates, Inc.,Public Relations
 
Pat Smith 212 843-8026
 
 
Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times Poll/September 26, 2012 – page 2
“The wide difference between the two candidates is not just a result of Romney’s bad week. InOhio and Florida votes are basically split down the middle on whether the county and they and their families are worse or better off than they were four years ago. If voters don’t think they are worse off, it isdifficult to see them throwing out an incumbent whose personal ratings with voters remains quite high,”Brown added.“The president’s strength results from the fact that for the first time in the entire campaign, he isseen as better able to fix the economy than is Romney, the issue that has been the Republican’s callingcard since the general election campaign began. And the economy remains the overwhelming choice asthe most important issue to voters’ presidential choice.”
Florida
Women likely voters back Obama 58 – 39 percent while men are divided with 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Hispanic voters go Democratic 55 – 41 percent while independentvoters are split with 49 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama.The economy is the most important issue for 47 percent of Florida voters, while 20 percent listhealth care; 10 percent list the budget deficit and 8 percent list national security.The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 – 41 percent and do a better jobon Medicare, voters say 55 – 40 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 52 – 42 percent and back the president 53 – 45 percent.Voters tip to Romney 48 – 46 percent on who would do a better job on the budget deficit.A total of 53 percent of Florida voters are “very confident” or “somewhat confident” in Obama’sability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 46 percent for Romney.Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 57 – 40 percent, while Romney doesn’tcare, voters say 55 – 41 percent.In Florida’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson leads U.S. Rep. ConnieMack, the Republican challenger, 53 – 39 percent.U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio gets a 47 – 27 percent favorability while former Gov. Charlie Crist gets asplit 40 – 40 percent favorability.Florida voters disapprove 48 – 38 percent of the job Gov. Rick Scott is doing.“If Gov. Charlie Crist is contemplating a political comeback, he is neither in great or terribleshape. Overall voters are split on whether they view him favorably or unfavorably,” Brown said.
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Quinnipiac/CBS/The Times Poll/September 26, 2012 – page 3
“If Crist is planning a run as a Democrat, he would enter a primary with almost four times as many party members seeing him favorably as unfavorably,” said Brown.
Ohio
Obama leads 60 – 35 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men support Romney 52 – 44 percent. White voters back Romney by a narrow 49 – 46 percent, while 98 percent of black voters back the president. Independent voters are split with 47 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama.The economy is the most important issue for 49 percent of Ohio voters, while 21 percent list healthcare; 12 percent list the budget deficit and 5 percent list national security.The president would do a better job on health care, voters say 54 – 40 percent and do a better jobon Medicare, voters say 55 – 39 percent. Voters over 55 say Obama would do a better job on Medicare 54 – 41 percent and back the president 52 – 44 percent.Romney would do a better job on the budget deficit, voters say 49 – 45.A total of 55 percent of Ohio voters are “very confident” or “somewhat confident” in Obama’sability to make the right decisions about events in the Middle East, compared to 46 percent for Romney.Obama cares about their needs and problems, voters say 59 – 38 percent, while Romney doesn’tcare, voters say 57 – 38 percent.If reelected, Obama policies would treat everyone the same, 31 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say he would favor the middle class; 25 percent say he would favor the poor and 8 percent say hewould favor the rich.Romney policies would favor the rich, 58 percent of voters say; 29 percent say he would treat allthe same, while 9 percent say he would favor the middle class and 1 percent say he would favor the poor.In Ohio’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown leads State Treasurer JoshMandel, the Republican challenger, 50 – 40 percent.Ohio voters approve 48 – 35 percent of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing.“Mitt Romney may not be doing well in Ohio, but his fellow Republican, Gov. John Kasich, seemsto have resurrected his political standing in the Buckeye State,” said Brown. “Kasich finds himself with amid-teens double digit positive approval margin.”
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania women likely voters back Obama 58 – 37 percent, while men split with 49 percent for Romney and 48 percent for the president. Independent voters are split 48 – 48 percent.
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