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When Things Go Bad

When Things Go Bad

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Published by: RangeDicomes on Sep 29, 2012
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When Things Go Bad
September 13, 2012 | 0901 GMT
 138 30 242 77
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Stratfor
By Scott Stewart
 Over the past several weeks, we have discussed a number of different situations that can present acommon problem to people caught up in them. First, we discussed how domestic terrorism remains apersistent threat in the United States, and that despite improvements in security measures since 2001,
 
soft targets still remain vulnerable to attack by terrorist actors driven by a variety of motivations. Due tothe devolution of the jihadist threat toward the grassroots, there is also a growing trend of jihadist actorsusing armed assaults instead of bombing attacks. We also discussed the continuing problem of
 
disaster, civil unrest or war. People caught in any of these situations could find themselves either confronted by an armed assailant oractually coming under fire in an active shooter scenario. Of course, there are other situations wherepeople can find themselves confronted by armed assailants, from street muggings and carjackings tobank robberies. Because of this, we thought it might be useful to our readers to discuss such situationsand how to react when caught in one.
Mindset
Perhaps the most important factor affecting a person's reaction to a life-threatening incident is theirmindset going into the situation. As we have previously noted when discussing situational awareness,the way the brain is wired makes it very difficult for a person to go from a state of being "tuned out" andcompletely unaware of what is going on around them to a state of high alert. When confronted by such a jump, it is not uncommon for people to freeze, go into shock and become totally unable to respond to thesituation confronting them. This type of panic-induced paralysis can be extremely deadly, and at that pointthe only hope of surviving an incident is sheer luck or divine providence. People in such a state can donothing to save themselves.
 
Another factor of this mindset is the need for people to recognize that there are bad people in the worldwho want to hurt innocent people, and that they could be potential targets. This means that people mustnot only practice situational awareness but also trust their gut when they feel something isn't quite right.Denial can be a very dangerous thing when it overrides or rationalizes away gut feelings of danger. Overmy former careers as a special agent and corporate security officer, I have interviewed numerous peoplewho allowed denial to override suspicious indicators they noted, and who then proceeded to do thingsthat resulted in their victimization -- all because they had the mindset that they could not possibly becomevictims. These situations ranged from a mugging victim, who thought there was something odd about theway three guys on the corner looked at her, to the kidnapping victim who spotted the deployed abductionteam but proceeded into the attack zone anyway because he thought the team would target someonewith more money than his family had. In shooting situations, I have spoken with victims who did notrealize that shots were actually being fired and instead dismissed them as pranks or fireworks. I haveseen media reports of similar remarks from witnesses regarding recent shooting incidents, such as theJuly 20 shooting at a movie theater in Aurora, Colorado. In short, denial is deadly.By practicing the proper level of situational awareness and understanding the possibility of beingtargeted, a person will be mentally prepared to realize that an attack is happening -- something we callattack recognition. The earlier a target recognizes the attack, the better. In the kidnapping case notedabove, the victim recognized the attack before it was sprung, and could have avoided a long (and costly)hostage ordeal, had he taken immediate action to avoid the attack site. As we have mentionedrepeatedly, criminal and terrorist attacks do not appear out of a vacuum. Instead, they are part of aplanning process that can be recognized if one is looking for it. We have also noted over the years that
 
often leave them vulnerable to early detection.Admittedly, there is the slight danger of embarrassment in the aftermath of a false reaction. I haveblushed after hitting the ground and rolling to cover in response to unexpected celebratory gunfire inYemen, but in general it is far better to initially overreact when there is no threat than it is to underreact ina truly dangerous situation.But even if one cannot avoid an attack, recognizing danger immediately and then quickly taking action toavoid it can often mean the difference between survival and death.
Run, Hide, Fight
Some people have been critical of the simplicity of the "Run, Hide, Fight" public service video available on
 
YouTube, which was produced by the City of Houston and funded by the Department of Homeland
 
Security. In our assessment, the video does a good job achieving its goal of raising awareness of activeshooter situations and of providing a simple, easy-to-remember mantra similar to the "stop, drop and roll"fire-prevention slogan. The video also discusses the necessity of having an evacuation plan and beingaware of surroundings. Is the video a complete self-defense course? Clearly not, but it does meet itslimited objectives.Once a person has recognized that an attack is taking place, a critical step must be taken before they candecide to run, hide or fight -- they must determine where the gunfire (or threat) is coming from. Withoutdoing so, the victim could run blindly from a position of relative safety into danger. We certainlyencourage anyone under attack to get out of the attack site and run away from danger, but you must firstascertain that you are in the attack site before taking action. Many times, the source of the threat will beevident and will not take much time to locate. But sometimes, depending on the location -- whether in abuilding or out on the street -- the sounds of gunfire can echo and it may take a few seconds to determinethe direction it is coming from. In such a scenario, it is prudent to quickly take cover until the direction ofthe threat can be located. In some instances, there may even be more than one gunman, which cancomplicate escape plans.
 
Fortunately, most attackers engaging in active shooter scenarios are not well-trained. They tend to bepoor marksmen who lack tactical experience with their weapons. For example, in his attack on a LosAngeles Jewish community center daycare Aug. 10, 1999, Buford Furrow fired 70 shots from an Uzi-stylesubmachine gun but only wounded five people. The Uzi is an effective and highly accurate weapon atshort distances, meaning the only reason Furrow did so little damage was his poor marksmanship. Duringthe July 20 shooting in Aurora, James Holmes only managed to kill 12 people -- despite achieving almosttotal tactical surprise in a fully packed theater -- due to a combination of poor marksmanship and hisinability to clear a malfunction from his rifle.This typical lack of marksmanship implies that most people killed in active shooter situations are shot atvery close range. There are some obvious exceptions, like the shooting at the University of Texas onAug. 1, 1966, when ex-Marine Charles Whitman shot several people from the top of a tower on thecollege campus. But even then, most of Whitman's victims were shot early on in his attack, and his abilityto successfully engage targets declined rapidly as victims realized where the shots were coming from andeither moved away from the threat or took cover and waited for the authorities to respond.
MDACC
As seen in the Whitman case, potential victims can do several things to reduce their chances of beingshot, even with a trained shooter. We use an old acronym to describe these steps: MDACC, which standsfor motion, distance, angle, cover and concealment.First, it is much harder to shoot a moving target than a stationary one, especially if that target is moving ata distance. Most tactical shootings happen at distances of less than 7 meters. Indeed, there are very fewpeople who can consistently hit a stationary target beyond 25 meters with a pistol, much less a movingtarget. Most people can put 25 meters between them and an attacker in just a few seconds, so motionand distance are your friends.The angle between the target and the shooter is also important, because shooting a target running awayin a straight line is easier than shooting a target running away at an angle, since the second scenariowould require the shooter to swing the barrel of the weapon and lead the target. Both require a good dealof practice, even with a rifle or shotgun. If the target can run at an angle behind objects like trees, cars,office furniture or walls that obstruct the shooter's view of the target (concealment) or stop bullets (cover),that is even more effective.Whether running or trying to hide, it is important to distinguish between concealment and cover. Itemsthat provide concealment will hide you from the shooter's eye but will not protect you from bullets. A bushor tree leaves may provide concealment, but only a substantial tree trunk will provide cover. A typicaloffice drywall-construction interior wall will provide concealment but not cover. This means that if a personis forced to hide inside an office or classroom, they might be able to lock the door but the shooter will inall likelihood still be able to fire through the walls and the door, should they choose to do so. Still, if theshooter cannot see his or her target, they will be firing by chance rather than intentionally aiming.In any case, those hiding inside a room should attempt to find some sort of additional cover, like a filingcabinet or heavy desk. It is always better to find cover than concealment, but even partial cover --something that will only deflect or fragment the projectiles -- is better than no cover at all.
The Inner Warrior
Mindset also becomes critical when a person is wounded. In active shooter situations it is not unusual formany more people to be wounded than killed; this also relates to the issue of poor marksmanshipdiscussed above. In such a situation, it is extremely important for the wounded person to understand that,unlike what is portrayed in the movies, most wounds are not immediately fatal and rarely immobilize the

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