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FL-18 Kimball Political Consulting (R) (Sept. 2012)

FL-18 Kimball Political Consulting (R) (Sept. 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Sep 30, 2012
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11/30/2012

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1- Kimball Political Consulting, LLC FL USC D18 9/28/12
Kimball Political ConsultingFlorida US Congress D-18 SurveyData collected September 28 between 3:00-8:30pm
 
Executive Summary
 
Methodology
 
Survey Instrument
 
Frequencies and Cross tabulationsExecutive Summary
 
In the Presidential Ballot Test, President Obama holds a 7 point lead over Governor Romney in the 18
th
Congressional District (52% to 45%), 3% wereundecided.
o
 
Martin County is Romney
s strongest County with 53% to 44% for Obama (+9)
o
 
Palm Beach County is Obama
s strongest County with 64% to 35% for Romney (+29)
o
 
St. Lucie County is the toss up county with a virtual tie (48% for Obama to 47% Romney)
o
 
Younger voters 18-39 were more likely to support Romney 60% to 41% for Obama
o
 
Voters 50-59 years old significantly supported Obama 58% to 38% (+20)
o
 
Women were significantly more likely to support President Obama +22 points (59% to 37%)
o
 
Men were significantly more likely to support Romney 54% to 44% for Obama (+10)
o
 
Democrats and Republicans support their party candidate about 80% of the time with both parties giving the opposing candidate 18% of theirvote
o
 
Independents support Romney over Obama 50% to 46%
 
If the Election for U.S. Congress were held today in Florida
s 18 district, Patrick Murphy would win with 49% over Allen West 45% (within the margin of error) with 6% of voters undecided.
o
 
Allen West has his base support in Martin County +9 (52% to 43%)
 
2- Kimball Political Consulting, LLC FL USC D18 9/28/12
o
 
Patrick Murphy has his support in Palm Beach County +21 (58% to 37%)
o
 
St. Lucie County is a toss-up with West holding a 1 point lead (47% to 46%)
o
 
Younger voters between the ages of 18-39 significantly favor West over Murphy +25 points (60% to 35%)
o
 
Female voters significantly support Murphy over West +21 (57% to 36%)
o
 
Male voters significantly favor West over Murphy +14 (55% to 41%)
o
 
Democrats and Republicans support their party candidate 75% of the time and both candidates receive about 19% of the opposing party
s vote.
o
 
Independent voters favor West +6 over Murphy (49% to 43%)
o
 
Voters who said the Deficit was the number one issue were four times as likely to vote for West (78% to 17%)
o
 
Voters who thought Healthcare was the most important issue were very likely to vote for Murphy (80% to 12%)
o
 
Voters who thought jobs were the most important issue split their votes between Murphy (48%) and West (46%)
 
President Obama has a 51% favorable rating and a 46% unfavorable rating (+5)
o
 
His favorable ratings fall below his unfavorable rating in Martin County (-9) and St. Lucie County (-2).
o
 
President Obama has a significantly higher favorable rating in Palm Beach County (+24)
o
 
Among younger voters (18-39) Obama has a -21 unfavorable to favorable rating (60% to 39%)
o
 
Gender splits on the Presidents favorable ratings with women holding a 59% favorable opinion versus males who hold a 42% favorable opinion
o
 
Males also hold a 56% unfavorable opinion while females hold only a 38% unfavorable opinion
o
 
Democrats and Republicans maintain a basic 80-20 split about President Obamas opinion, while Independents have a -4 unfavorable opinion of President Obama (50%-46%)
 
3- Kimball Political Consulting, LLC FL USC D18 9/28/12
 
Governor Mitt Romney has a 46% favorable opinion and a 51% unfavorable opinion while 3% are undecided.
o
 
Romney
s support is located in Martin County +14 (56% to 42%), while his weakest is in Palm Beach County (-25 points) 61% unfavorable to 36%favorable.
o
 
St. Lucie County is an area that Romney has some support with 47% favorable and 49% unfavorable
o
 
Voters 30-39 years old have a significant favorable opinion of Romney with 64% to 36% (+28)
o
 
There is no significant gender difference in opinion of Romney but the trend of females holding an unfavorable opinion (-19) and
males’ holding
a favorable opinion (+ 10) continues.
o
 
Party affiliation continues to break based on Candidates party at nearly 80-20. Independent voters had a 50% favorable to 48% unfavorableopinion.
 
Congressman Allen West holds a 42% favorable opinion and a 51% unfavorable opinion in the district with 4% undecided
o
 
Palm Beach County significantly has a lower impression of West with only a 35% favorable and a 62% unfavorable impression (-27)
o
 
Younger voters continue to be attracted to the Republican candidates with voters 18-39 holding about a 32% unfavorable opinion and a 55%favorable opinion.
o
 
Females have a -21 favorable to unfavorable opinion (36% to 57%) while males hold a slim +5 favorable impression of West (49%-44%)
o
 
Party continues to split based on candidacy with a -55 amongst Democrats and a +51 amongst Republicans. Independents have a slightunfavorable opinion of West (44% to 49%)
 
Patrick Murphy has a positive Favorable (45%) to unfavorable (37%) ratio with 19% undecided/never heard of him.
o
 
Palm Beach County hold a significantly lower unfavorable opinion with only 28%
o
 
Younger voters between ages 18-39 continue to hold an unfavorable opinion of the Democrat candidates with only a 24% favorable opinion anda 49% unfavorable opinion
o
 
Females are a strong group of support +16 while males are evenly split (41% to 41%)
o
 
Republican and Democrats mirror their opinions with +40 favorable opinions amongst Democrats and a -37 amongst Republicans.

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