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IL-13 Victoria Research for David Gill (Sept. 2012)

IL-13 Victoria Research for David Gill (Sept. 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 01, 2012
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Polling Memo from Donna Victoria
Published on: October 1, 2012
Home / Polling Memo from Donna Victoria
TO: David Gill for Congress, IL-13FROM: Donna Victoria, Victoria Research & ConsultingDATE: September 30, 2012 This memorandum reports on the findings of a poll taken in the 13th Congressional District ofIllinois September 26-27, 2012. Four hundred registered, likely voters for November 2012 wereinterviewed. The poll was designed to track the progress of the congressional campaign of Dr.David Gill for Congress. All questions about this memo or its contents should be referred toDonna Victoria (donnaV@victoriaresearch.com).We knew that in the post-Citizen
s United, “anything goes” political environment of 2012, acandidate like Democratic nominee Dr. David Gill in the 13th District would face unrestrained,
Polling Memo from Donna Victoria for David Gill for Congress...http://www.gill2012.org/polling-memo-from-donna-victoria/1 of 410/1/12 11:07 AM
negative, and false attacks from the corporate special interests and lobbyists who fear acandidate who says he will not take one penny of their money that tries to influence his vote.We knew that. What we did not know was just how tough the good doctor could be in the faceof such attacks. The amounts spent to smear Dr. Gill have been astounding. So far, at least $1milion has been spent by his opponents on mostly negative attacks against Dr. Gill on theairwaves –
and yet, Dr. David Gill still holds the slimmest of leads over his Republicanopponent, career political operative Rodney Davis.
Key results are as follows:
The initial trial heat in this district is 40% for David Gill, 8% for John Hartman(Independent), and 39% for Rodney Davis, with the remainder undecided.
 Davis continues to run a weak and substance-free campaign, and it shows; only 17%of voters say they have heard anything in the campaign that makes them feel morepositive towards Davis. He has coalesced the Republican base in the district, but hehas been unable to expand his appeal to the middle of the electorate.Dr. Gill, on the other hand, is building support among key voter cohorts that he needsin order to win, and leads over Rodney Davis on all the substantive measures in thisbrief poll:When asked
“who will prevent tax increases on the middle class”
a plurality ofvoters chooses Gill over Davis.When asked “
who understands the challenges facing ordinary working people”
voters choose Gill over Davis by an even wider margin.There is one item where Rodney Davis is in the lead; when voters are asked
“whowill cut your Medicare coverage”
Rodney is in the lead by 23 percentagepoints!
Apparently, all the big-money negative attacks in the world are not going toconvince the sensible voters of central and southwest Illinois that a family physicianand ER doctor who has been a long-time advocate of expanding
Medicare for All
isthe one who is going to gut Medicare. In fact, the latest attack ad against Dr. Gill onthis issue was so outrageous it got the “Liar, Liar, Pants on fire” rating from Politifact.
Polling Memo from Donna Victoria for David Gill for Congress...http://www.gill2012.org/polling-memo-from-donna-victoria/2 of 410/1/12 11:07 AM
This race will be close right down to the wire, and we can count on the big money continuing itsscurrilous course while Dr. Gill continues to talk about creating good jobs here instead ofshipping them overseas, about the importance of a safety net for seniors after they have paidinto Social Security and Medicare with a lifetime of work, and the real-life concerns he hearsfrom people he meets on the campaign trail and in the ER every day. We hope that the voterswill be able to hear his positive message over the din.#END#
(217) 391-4367Friends of David GillPO Box 3683Bloomington, IL61702-3683info@gill2012.org
submit your name and email below
davidgill2012 Proud to get theendorsement of the Illinois StateCouncil of Machinists and AerospaceWorkers today! #IL13
davidgill2012 politifact.com/truth-o-meter/via @politifact #IL13#rodneydavis #PANTSONFIRE
2 days ago
davidgill2012 Politifact: The NRCC adsaying that Gill would end Medicare"completely distorts the plan in anattempt to scare seniors. Pants on Fire!"
2 days ago
Polling Memo from Donna Victoria for David Gill for Congress...http://www.gill2012.org/polling-memo-from-donna-victoria/3 of 410/1/12 11:07 AM

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