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MO-Sen Kiley & Company for Claire McCaskill (Sept. 2012)

MO-Sen Kiley & Company for Claire McCaskill (Sept. 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 01, 2012
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05/13/2014

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M E M O R A N D U M
To: McCaskill Campaign LeadershipFrom: Kiley & CompanyRe: Tracking Survey #1: Key FindingsDate: October 1, 2012 ____________________________________________________________________________ 
We just completed our first tracking survey last night. As with September’s benchmark survey, we interviewed 600 Missouri voters who are likely to cast a ballot in November’s general election. These results have a margin of error of +/-3.5%.The partisan breakdown of this sample is 43% Republican; 38% Democratic; and 19%Independents who do not lean toward either party. The five-point Republican advantage in party identification is virtually identical to our last survey, which showed a four-point Republicanadvantage in this area.
Senator McCaskill has expanded her lead over the last three weeks, and isnow up by nine points.
Senator McCaskill now leads Congressman Akin by nine points – up from the six-pointmargin we saw in our benchmark survey three weeks ago:
9/30 9/10 
McCaskill
50% 48%
Akin
41 42
Other 
2 2
Not sure
7 7McCaskill enjoys near-unanimous support among
Democrats
(91% to 5%), but Akin hasyet to fully consolidate the GOP vote: he is currently taking 79% of 
Republicans
, to 14% for McCaskill. Senator McCaskill enjoys a huge 23-point advantage among
Independents
(51% to28%).We continue to see a large gender gap: McCaskill is holding Akin to a virtual dead heatamong
men
(Akins leads, 48% to 47%), while posting a big edge among
women
(McCaskillleads, 53% to 35%).

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