M E M O R A N D U M
To: McCaskill Campaign LeadershipFrom: Kiley & CompanyRe: Tracking Survey #1: Key FindingsDate: October 1, 2012 ____________________________________________________________________________
We just completed our first tracking survey last night. As with September’s benchmark survey, we interviewed 600 Missouri voters who are likely to cast a ballot in November’s general election. These results have a margin of error of +/-3.5%.The partisan breakdown of this sample is 43% Republican; 38% Democratic; and 19%Independents who do not lean toward either party. The five-point Republican advantage in party identification is virtually identical to our last survey, which showed a four-point Republicanadvantage in this area.
Senator McCaskill has expanded her lead over the last three weeks, and isnow up by nine points.
Senator McCaskill now leads Congressman Akin by nine points – up from the six-pointmargin we saw in our benchmark survey three weeks ago:
7 7McCaskill enjoys near-unanimous support among
(91% to 5%), but Akin hasyet to fully consolidate the GOP vote: he is currently taking 79% of
, to 14% for McCaskill. Senator McCaskill enjoys a huge 23-point advantage among
(51% to28%).We continue to see a large gender gap: McCaskill is holding Akin to a virtual dead heatamong
(Akins leads, 48% to 47%), while posting a big edge among
(McCaskillleads, 53% to 35%).