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NJ-03 Stockton College (Oct. 2012)

NJ-03 Stockton College (Oct. 2012)

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Oct 04, 2012
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Runyan Leads Adler in NJ’s 3rd CongressionalDistrict, according to Stockton Polling Institute
For Immediate Release
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Contact: Tim KellyOffice of Public RelationsGalloway Township, NJ 08240(609) 652-4950Tim.Kelly@stockton.edu 
Galloway, NJ – The Stockton Polling Institute today released a poll of the closely watched 3rdCongressional District showing Republican incumbent Jon Runyan leading Democraticchallenger Shelley Adler by a margin of 49 percent to 39 percent among likely voters.The Stockton Polling Institute is part of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at theRichard Stockton College of New Jersey. The poll was conducted with 614 likely voters fromSeptember 28
th
to October 2nd. Interviewers called both land lines and cell phones. The surveyhas a margin of error of +/-4.0 percent.New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District includes parts of Burlington and Ocean counties. It ison the watch lists of both the Republican and Democratic parties.“These polling results are from the first independent poll made public in this district,” said DanielJ. Douglas, Director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy.“With 12 percent of voters undecided, candidate Adler still has an opportunity to close the leadon Runyan, though Runyan is clearly in a better position,” explained Douglas.Of all those surveyed, 51 percent have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Runyan, while26 percent have a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion, with 21 percent unsure or unfamiliar with him.For Adler, 39 percent of those surveyed have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of her,while 26 percent have a somewhat or very unfavorable opinion. One-third are unfamiliar with thecandidate or unsure of their opinion about her.
 
 As with other members of Congress, voters’ views of Runyan’s job performance is different thanvoters’ views of Congress overall, with 43 percent rating Runyan’s job performance as excellentor good and 37 percent rating his performance as fair or poor. Only 10 percent of the votersapprove of the job performance of Congress, while 87 percent disapprove.In the race for the United States Senate seat, incumbent Democratic Senator Robert Menendezleads Republican challenger Joseph Kyrillos by a 46 to 38 percent margin in the 3rdCongressional District.In the presidential race, incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama leads Republicanchallenger Mitt Romney by 49 to 41 percent in this southern New Jersey congressional district.The poll was concluded before the first presidential debate was held. Although he is not on this year’s ballot, 50 percent of likely voters rate New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s job performance as excellent or good, while 48 percent rate his performance fair or poor. While his job performance numbers are nearly split, his favorability rankings are morepositive with 57 percent viewing him very or somewhat favorably, while 40 percent view himsomewhat or very unfavorably.
Methodology
Interviews are conducted at the Stockton Polling Institute by live interviewers calling from theStockton College campus. The poll was conducted with 614 likely voters from September 28
th
toOctober 2nd. Interviewers called both land lines and cell phones. All prospective respondenthouseholds in the source telephone list have the same chance of joining the sample because of the random digital dialing system (RDD). Data were weighted based on United States Censusdemographic data. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent.
About the Hughes Center The William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy
(www.stockton.edu/hughescenter )at The Richard Stockton College of New Jersey serves as a catalyst for research, analysis andinnovative policy solutions on the economic, social and cultural issues facing New Jersey. TheCenter is named for Ambassador William J. Hughes, whose distinguished career includesservice in the U.S. House of Representatives, Ambassador to Panama and as a DistinguishedVisiting Professor at Stockton College.The Hughes Center can be found at www.facebook.com/Hughes.Center.Stockton.College and can be followed on Twitter  @hughescenter . 
 
Frequencies - CD3 - Sep-Oct 2012
CumulativePercentValid PercentPercentFrequency Democrat Barack ObamaRepublican Mitt RomneyLean ObamaLean RomneySOMEONE ELSENOT SURE/DON'TKNOWREFUSETotalValid100.0100.0608100.01.91.911 98.15.05.030 93.23.93.923 89.32.32.314 87.02.62.616 84.438.538.5234 45.945.945.9279
If the election for president were held today, would you vote for:
CumulativePercentValid PercentPercentFrequency Republican Jon RunyanDemocrat Shelley Adler Lean RunyanLean Adler SOMEONE ELSENOT SURE/DON'TKNOWREFUSEDTotalValid100.0100.0608100.01.21.27 98.88.28.250 90.62.72.716 87.92.02.012 85.92.62.616 83.336.636.6223 46.746.746.7284
If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for: 
CumulativePercentValid PercentPercentFrequency FavorableUnfavorableNOT FAMILIARKNOWREFUSETotalValid100.0100.0608100.0.7.74 99.311.211.268 88.29.69.658 78.626.226.2160 52.452.452.4318
Which of the following best describes your overall opinion of Jon Runyan: 
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