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Futures Research
World Future Society, July 30, 2007
Jay Forrest, Cindy FrewenWuellner& Jay Gary
The Future of 
CD-RomCD-Rom
Abstract:
Futures Studies occupies a unique niche in social sciencesresearch and knowledge creation today. Futurists sharecommon methods, including environmental scanning, trendanalysis, the Delphi method, scenario planning,extrapolation of time-series, and computer-modeling. Butwhere did its research methods come from? Whatdisciplines and research models shaped the modern futuresmovement? This session will 1) explore the mental modelsbehind futures thinking from social, political, organizational,and systems theory, 2) discuss how mid-career futuristsmight improve our practice, and 3) consider how futuresresearch might enhance the specificity and relevance offutures research to organizations.
•
Jay Forrest, PhD
soon!Improving Futures Methods Through Systems Thinking
•
Cindy Frewen, PhD
soon!The Art of Urban Futures Research
•
Jay Gary, PhD
candidate!Why Futures Studies Needs a Theory Base
Futures Research
The Future of 
http://www.jaygary.com/futuresresearch.pdf 
How do we strengthen
Futures as…
Discipline?Profession?
BasicResearchAppliedResearch
Profession
wfs.orgprofuturists.orgwfsf.org
Discipline
•
Futures: The journal
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30422/description#
•
Technological Forecasting andSocial Change
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/505740/description
•
Foresight: The journal
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/info/journals/fs/fs.jsp
•
Futures Research Quarterly
http://www.wfs.org/frq.htm
•
Journal of Futures Studies
http://www2.tku.edu.tw/~tddx/jfs/ 
•
International Journal ofForecasting
http://www.forecasters.org/ijf/ 
 
2
PhDResearch
•
Jay Forrest, PhD
soon!Improving Futures Methods Through Systems Thinking
•
Cindy Frewen, PhD
soon!The Art of Urban Futures Research
•
Jay Gary, PhD
candidate!Why Futures Studies Needs a Theory Base
Futures Research
The Future of 
http://www.jaygary.com/futuresresearch.pdf 
My Thoughts…
Jay Forrest
Present & PastThe Future
REALITYPERCEPTION
Investigation- EnvironmentalScanning- Trend Identification- Model Construction- Delphi- etc.Inference (Conjecture)- Trend Extrapolation-Modelling- Cross Impact Analysis- Causality- etc.
futura facta 
Time
Futures MethodsPutting Rigor in Futures?
•Quantitative Processes?•Qualitative Processes•Both?
–Better Facta–Better Conjecture
•Better Thinking•Better Logic
•Better Communication•Better Demonstration of Value
???
Systems Thinking Seemsto Hold Much Potential
 
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Credibility of Futures Studies
Credibilityof FuturesStudiesQualityofFactaQualityofFuturaDemand forFuturesStudiesandGraduatesQualityofInvestigativeMethodsQualityofBoundariesofInvestigationQualityof InferenceQualityofInferentialMethodsSkillwithInvestigativeMethodsQualityof CommunicationQualityof UnderlyingLogic
Potential ContibutionforSystems Thinking
Credibilityof FuturesStudiesQualityofFactaQualityofFuturaDemandforFuturesStudiesand GraduatesQualityofInvestigativeMethodsQualityofBoundariesofInvestigationQualityof InferenceQualityofInferentialMethodsSkillwithInvestigativeMethodsQualityof CommunicationQualityof UnderlyingLogicSystemsThinkingandMethods
Where Is Systems Thinking?
•Causal loop and influence diagramsconsistently show benefits of improvedunderstanding, better communication.•Less than 2 percent of articles in Futuresuse causality or systems concepts ordiagrams to explain or discuss the issue athand.
•
Jay Forrest, PhD
soon!Improving Futures Methods Through Systems Thinking
•
Cindy Frewen, PhD
soon!The Art of Urban Futures Research
•
Jay Gary, PhD
candidate!Why Futures Studies Needs a Theory Base
Futures Research
The Future of 
•
Jay Forrest, PhD
soon!Improving Futures Methods Through Systems Thinking
•
Cindy Frewen, PhD
soon!The Art of Urban Futures Research
•
Jay Gary, PhD
candidate!Why Futures Studies Needs a Theory Base
Futures Research
The Future of 
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