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The "New Population Bomb" is a Dud

The "New Population Bomb" is a Dud

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DifferenTakes 75, Fall 2012. This issue of PopDev's DifferenTakes series takes on the “new population bomb” and the underlying logic of the “youth bulge,” the belief that a high proportion of young people in a population leads to unrest. It looks at the contradictory view of young people as promise on the one hand or dangerous peril on the other and the problematic policies that result from the reproductive health arena to immigration policies.

DifferenTakes 75, Fall 2012. This issue of PopDev's DifferenTakes series takes on the “new population bomb” and the underlying logic of the “youth bulge,” the belief that a high proportion of young people in a population leads to unrest. It looks at the contradictory view of young people as promise on the one hand or dangerous peril on the other and the problematic policies that result from the reproductive health arena to immigration policies.

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Published by: Population & Development Program (PopDev) on Oct 05, 2012
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09/17/2013

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Tfg –Ogw Zhpucatho Bhib’  a Dud
By Aoog Fgodxho
Gdth‐ Ohtg<
 Tf`s `ssug taegs ho tfg –ogw phpucat`ho bhib’ aod tfg uodgrcy`om chm`k h tfg –yhutfbucmg#’ tfg bgc`g tfat a f`mf prhphrt`ho h yhuom pghpcg `o a phpucat`ho cgads th uorgst/ @t chhes at tfgkhotrad`kthry v`gw h yhuom pghpcg as prhi`sg ho tfg hog faod hr daomgrhus pgr`c ho tfg htfgr aodtfg prhbcgiat`k phc`k`gs tfat rgsuct rhi tfg rgprhdukt`vg fgactf argoa th `ii`mrat`ho phc`k`gs/
— Bgtsy Fartiaoo aod Aoog Fgodr`xsho
Mhcdsthog summgsts tfat tf`s ogw phpucat`hobhib `s gvgry b`t as acari`om as tfg hcd hog/]fat fg d`skhuots `s tfg akt tfat tfg rst phpucat`ho bhib was a dud—a khokgptuac dud—tfat a`cgd th gxpca`o tfg khipcgx`t`gs h phpucat`ho trgods/ @ts ia`o `ipakt was th sprgaduoogkgssary acari abhut hvgrphpucat`ho# spurr`om urmgot akt`ho th rgdukg phpucat`ho mrhwtfratgs htgo at tfg gxpgosg h pghpcg‐s rgprhdukt`vg rggdhi aod fuiao r`mfts/ At tfg fg`mfth tfg phpucat`ho bhib skarg# grt`c`ty ratgs fadbgmuo th acc `o iaoy parts h tfg whrcd# gvgobghrg tfg `otrhdukt`ho h w`dgsprgad ai`cypcaoo`om prhmrais/
;
 Zhpucat`ho mrhwtf ratgs favg khot`ougd th acc/ Tfg 2:12 WO prhlgkt`hos ohtg tfat bhtf whrcdphpucat`ho aod mchbac grt`c`ty ratgs arg chwgrtfao prgsuigd `o tfg 2:1: prhlgkt`hos/
4
Pgt wg[huod`om tfg acari hvgr kurrgot phpucat`hotrgods# phc`t`kac sk`got`st Dr/ Lake Mhcdsthogwaros tfat tfg –yhutf bucmg’ `s a –ogw phpucat`ho bhib/’
1
Mhcdsthog `s a wgccrgspgktgdgxpgrt ho shk`ac ihvgigots aod `otgroat`hoacphc`t`ks# wfh fas sgrvgd ho a W[ ^`kgZrgs`dgot`ac Tase Nhrkg ho [tatg Na`curg# aod akts as akhosuctaot hr tfg W[ [tatg Dgpartigot# NgdgracBurgau h @ovgst`mat`ho# aod tfg W/[/ Amgoky hr@otgroat`hoac Dgvgchpigot &W[A@D)/ Fg armugstfat hur ia`o phpucat`ho `ssug `s oht abshcutgmchbac ouibgrs# as `t was wfgo tfg hr`m`oacphpucat`ho bhib kaig `oth vhmug `o tfg 10>:saod =:s/ @ostgad# kurrgot phpucat`hobasgdtfrgats supphsgdcy stgi rhi dgihmrapf`ktrgods c`eg tfg amg khiphs`t`ho h a phpucat`ho# `okcud`om a yhutf bucmg/ Phutf bucmgs argtfhumft th hkkur wfgo yhuom pghpcg khipr`sgihrg tfao twgoty pgrkgot h a khuotry‐s phpucat`ho# s`moac`om tfg phss`b`c`ty h phc`t`kac rgbgcc`ho aod uorgst/
2
 
OH/ =7NACC
2:12
A pubc`kat`ho h tfg
Zhpucatho aod Dgvgchpigot Zhmai
KCZZ
Faipsf`rg Khccgmg
Aifgrst# IA :1::241;/770/77:>
fttp<((phpdgv/faipsf`rg/gduHp`o`hos gxprgssgd `o tf`s pubc`kat`ho arg tfhsg h tfg `od`v`duac autfhrs uocgss htfgrw`sg spgk`ngd/
Tf`oe/ Akt/ Khoogkt/
Nhr pghpcg# gov`rhoigotaod lust`kg/
 
D`nnGrGOTAeGs
fttp<((phpdgv/faipsf`rg/gdu
 
Oh/ =7 • Nacc 2:12
arg cgt w`tf tfg cgmaky h phpucat`ho bhib acari`si<phpucat`ho `s sggo as a pgrpgtuac tfrgat# gvgo as dgihmrapf`k dyoai`ks kfaomg/@o tf`s vg`o# tfg yhutf bucmg khokgpt m`vgs r`sg thdaomgrhus `iamgs aod phc`k`gs/ As khiigotathrI`kfgccg Mav`o puts `t# –Aoy d`skuss`ho h tfg yhutfbucmg `o Ar`ka r`ses vggr`om `oth tfg caod h brgatfcgss acari`si—
 yhuom igo aod strggt maoms aod muos#hf iy!’ 
7
 Tfg tfghry `s oht ogw/ [`okg tfg god h ]hrcd ]ar @@ W[ i`c`tary aoacysts aodakadgi`ks favg dgogd tfg mrhw`omouibgr h yhuom pghpcg `o tfg mchbac[hutf as a phtgot`ac oat`hoac sgkur`tytfrgat/ A 10=4 igih rhi tfg Oat`hoac[gkur`ty Khuok`c prgsgotgd yhuompghpcg `o tfg mchbac [hutf as –ihrgvhcat`cg# uostabcg# prhog th gxtrgigs#ac`goat`ho# aod v`hcgokg tfao ao hcdgrphpucat`ho/’ Bgkausg h tfg`r prgsuigd `ooatg vhcat`c`ty# yhuom pghpcgwgrg khos`dgrgd tfrgats th tfg`r hwomhvgroigots# iuct`oat`hoac khrphrat`hos# aod W[ `otgrgsts/
>
Ihrg rgkgotcy#khokgros abhut W[ khotrhc h I`ddcgGastgro h`c gxphrts favg kgotgrgd ho tfg yhutf bucmg/
=
  Tfat tfg yhutf bucmg tfghry rggkts W[ i`c`tary aodrgshurkg khokgros `s oh surpr`sg—`t was dgvgchpgd asa prgd`kt`vg thhc hr dggosg aoacysts `o tfg 106:s/Zrhphogots h tfg yhutf bucmg tfghry ph`ot th stat`st`kac gv`dgokg h a khrrgcat`ho bgtwggo rgcat`vgcy f`mfouibgrs h yhutf `o a khuotry aod tfg hkkurrgokg h arigd kho`kt/
6
Pgt tfat khrrgcat`ho aktuaccy tgccs usvgry c`ttcg/N`rst# wf`cg tfg stat`st`ks sfhw a khrrgcat`ho# tfgy dhoht prhvg kausac`ty/ Tfg prgsgokg h a carmg mrhup h yhuom pghpcg aod tfg hkkurrgokg h v`hcgokg dhgsoht ogkgssar`cy igao tfat `t was tfg yhuom pghpcgwfh arg rgsphos`bcg/ @o tfg carmgcy pgakguc 2:1:2:11Gmypt`ao rgvhcut`ho—`o a khuotry tfat `s purphrtgdcy at tfg pgae h `ts yhutf bucmg—tfg v`hcgokg tfatgruptgd `o rgsphosg th tfg Tafr`r [quarg prhtgsts wasrhi mhvgroigot sgkur`ty hrkgs# oht prhtgstgrs/ @otfg 1004 mgohk`dg `o Rwaoda# yhuom pghpcg wgrghtgo rgkru`tgd th sgrvg `o i`c`tary ihvgigots ruo byphwgruc gc`tgs/ Tfg rgcat`hosf`p bgtwggo carmg yhutfphpucat`hos aod uorgst `s khipc`katgd/ Htgo tfhsg `ophwgr—wfgtfgr mhvgroigot hk`acs hr chkac gc`tgsh aoy amg—oht hocy `ost`matg v`hcgokg# but rgkru`taod dgpchy yhuom pghpcg th goakt `t/ Tf`s `okcudgstfg W[ i`c`tary# wf`kf fas a rhbust f`sthry h tra`o`omaod ari`om yhuom igo `o tfg mchbac [hutf# rhi tfg Tac`bao `o Amfao`stao th a $= i`cc`ho prhmrai `o ]gstAr`ka th –sfhrg up bhrdgr khotrhcs aod dgoy saoktuaryth suspgktgd tgrrhr`sts/’
0
[gkhodcy# tfg yhutf bucmg tfghry kaooht prgd`kt warhr v`hcgokg `o part`kucar chkat`hos w`tf a f`mf cgvgc h kgrta`oty/ Aotfrhphchm`st Iare [hiigrs ph`ots hut tfat prgd`kthrs h uorgst arg prgsgot `o iaoy [hutf Ar`kaokhuotr`gs/ Fg wr`tgs# –Tfg akt tfatsh iaoy wars favg godgd# aod tfattf`oms arg oht ar# ar ihrg uostabcgakrhss tfg rgm`ho# d`rgktcy kfaccgomgsbhtf tfg yhutf bucmg aod `ostab`c`tyaod tfg urbao tfrgats armuigots/’
1:
 Tf`rdcy# tfg yhutf bucmg tfghry dhgsc`ttcg th gxpca`o wfy yhuom pghpcg aktpgakguccy# hr absta`o rhi phc`t`ks# hrakt w`tf v`hcgokg `o part`kucar k`rkuistaokgs/ Nuodaigotaccy# `t `mohrgstfg rhcg h phwgr/ Zhc`t`kac sk`got`stCg`ca Aust`o armugs tfat chhe`om atphwgr# amgoky aod fhw r`mfts arg ogmht`atgd sfgdsc`mft ho tfg rhcgs Iusc`i yhuom pghpcg pcay `o katacyz`om kfaomg `o tfg I`ddcg Gast/ –Tf`s w`cc acchw us thgov`s`ho tfgi—oht lust as ao amg mrhup—but as ashk`ac katgmhry kapabcg h akt`om as khccgkt`vg amgotstfat bhtf dgog aod rgakt th tfg`r mchbac aod chkackhotgxts/’
11
@ostgad tfg yhutf bucmg khokgpt assuigsyhutf v`hcgokg# part`kucarcy rhi yhuom igo# aodcgads th daiam`om stgrghtypgs/ Tfg yhutf bucmg `s ihst htgo pgrsho`gd as ao aomryyhuom brhwo iao rhi Ar`ka# tfg I`ddcg Gast# hrparts h As`a hr Cat`o Aigr`ka/ Fg `s htgo phrtraygdas Iusc`i# suskgpt`bcg th gxtrgi`si# aod shigt`igsdr`vgo by f`s vgry b`hchmy th uorgst/ Tf`s stgrghtypg`s ao gxaipcg h wfat aotfrhphchm`st Oaoky [kfgpgrFumfgs kacc –daomgrhus d`skhursgs’ tfat hvgrprgd`kt`od`v`duac akts h yhutf v`hcgokg# gvgo as tfgy dhwopcay tfg rhcg h htfgr hris h v`hcgokg aod strukturac`ogquac`t`gs tfat khotr`butg th yhutf phvgrty aodphwgrcgssogss/
12
 Tfg khuotgrpart th tf`s aomry yhuom iao `iamg `s apass`vg# vg`cgd yhuom whiao# wfhsg prgsgokg akkgotuatgs tfg `ipc`gd iacg v`hcgokg aod igoakg/ ^hcat`cg
2
[`okg tfg god h ]hrcd ]ar @@W[ i`c`tary aoacystsaod akadgi`ksfavg dgnogd tfgmrhw`om ouibgrh yhuom pghpcg `otfg mchbac [hutf asa phtgot`ac oat`hoacsgkur`ty tfrgat/
 
D`nnGrGOTAeGs
fttp<((phpdgv/faipsf`rg/gdu
 
Oh/ =7 • Nacc 2:12
;
iacg yhutf `o tfg [hutf tfus bgkhig a tfrgat oht hocyth W[ oat`hoac sgkur`ty# but acsh th tfg whigo `o tfg`rhwo khuotr`gs/ Thh htgo# vg`cgd yhuom whigo argacsh sggo as v`kt`is h tfg`r hwo grt`c`ty# dhhigd thprhdukg tfg ogxt mgograt`ho h aomry yhuom igo/ Tfg aomry yhuom iao aod vg`cgd yhuom whiao `iamgs dh oht rggkt yhuom pghpcg‐s c`vgs# phc`t`ks hrkhotgxts# ygt tfgy `ipakt phc`ky aod prhmraii`omd`rgktgd at yhuom pghpcg/ As I`kfgccg Mav`o wr`tgs#–Nhkus`om thh oarrhwcy ho v`hcgokg aod kho`kt ratfgrtfao ho uodgrcy`om phc`t`kac tgos`hos tgods th y`gcd aa`rcy s`kecy krhp h phc`ky prgskr`pt`hos# acc var`at`hosho tfg tfgig h ‖brakg yhursgc/’
1;
Fgrg arg shig h tfg s`kecy phc`ky prgskr`pt`hos tfathw hr khucd hw rhi yhutf bucmg tfghry/ Tfgy arguoc`egcy th kfaip`ho yhuom pghpcg‐s r`mfts hr prhihtg tfg`r wgccbg`om<
@okrgasgd ai`cy pcaoo`om `s prhihtgd `o tfg oaigh rgduk`om yhutf bucmg tfrgats aod traoshri`omtfg bucmg `oth a prhdukt`vg gkhohi`k hrkg hr a–dgihmrapf`k d`v`dgod/’
14
Bhtf mhacs arg tfhumftbg akf`gvgd tfrhumf rgduk`om phpucat`ho mrhwtfratgs aod supphrt`om yhuom pghpcg w`tf gdukat`ho aod lhbs/ Fgrg tfg phs`t`vg aspgkts h giphwgr`om yhuom pghpcg arg gipfas`zgd# aod tfg htfgractgroat`vg—yhutf bucmg v`hcgokg—`s gvgr prgsgot/As W[A@D Dgputy Adi`o`strathr Dhoacd [tg`obgrmsa`d# –Tfg yhutf bucmg arg tfg yhuom pghpcg wgd`do‐t rgakf# tfg dgihmrapf`k d`v`dgod w`cc bg tfghogs wg rgakfgd/’
17
 
C`oe`om grt`c`ty w`tf v`hcgokg aod prhiht`om ai`cypcaoo`om as v`hcgokg prgvgot`ho khucd uodgri`ogvhcuotary ai`cy pcaoo`om aod st`miat`zg yhuompghpcg try`om th akkgss sgrv`kgs/ At tfg saig t`ig#ai`cy pcaoo`om tfat a`is th rgdukg b`rtf ratgs w`ccacc sfhrt h prhiht`om a rgprhdukt`vg lust`kg amgodatfat addrgssgs tfg ucc raomg h pghpcg‐s khipc`katgdsgxuac# rgprhdukt`vg aod kf`cd ra`s`om oggds/
Dgvgchpigot phc`k`gs gipchy tfg yhutf bucmgkhokgpt th draw attgot`ho th tfg oggds h yhuompghpcg# wf`cg assui`om tfg`r phtgot`ac hr v`hcgokg ` tfg`r oggds arg oht addrgssgd/ Oat`hoac aod `otgroat`hoac dgvgchpigot hrmao`zat`hos—`okcud`om tfg]hrcd Baoe# WO@KGN aod W[A@D—usg tfg khokgptth pr`hr`t`zg `otgroat`hoac dgvgchpigot `o`t`at`vgs/ Argkgot W[A@D thhce`t &hr`m`oaccy autfhrgd by Dr/ Lake Mhcdsthog) statgs# –wg oggd th krgatg khod`t`hos hrphs`t`vg aod khostrukt`vg rhcgs hr yhutf `o dgvgchp`om khuotr`gs# sh tfgy w`cc oht turo th v`hcgokg `oao attgipt th sat`sy tfg`r oggds/’ Tf`s i`odsgt `sc`egcy th prhihtg patrho`z`om stgrghtypgs h yhuompghpcg as g`tfgr –at r`se’ hr v`hcgot/ Tf`s b`oarytf`oe`om `s uoc`egcy th prhdukg kcgar phc`ky d`rgkt`vgstfat advhkatg w`tf aod hr yhuom pghpcg/
Phutf bucmg tf`oe`om khucd d`sthrt `ii`mrat`hophc`k`gs# part`kucarcy `o pcakgs wfgrg tfg ialhr`ty h tfg phpucat`ho `s –mray`om/’ Khokgros abhut yhuombrhwo i`mraots rhi Ar`ka aod tfg I`ddcg Gastfavg ra`sgd rak`ac aod oat`hoac`st`k gars h wf`tgpghpcg bg`om gomucgd `o parts h Gurhpg# as favgkhokgros abhut yhuom Cat`oh# Arab aod [hutf As`aoi`mraots `o tfg Wo`tgd [tatgs/ Tfgsg gars khotr`butgth aot``ii`mraot bakecasf aod rak`ac prhc`om#gspgk`accy wfgrg r`mftw`om `ii`mrat`ho phc`k`gs#sukf as Ar`zhoa‐s fardc`og `ii`mrat`ho caws# argacrgady `o gx`stgokg/ [`okg 011# tfg W[ Dgpartigoth Lust`kg aod acc`gd amgok`gs favg qugst`hogd aoddgta`ogd tfhusaods h yhuom Arab aod Iusc`i igo`o rak`ac prhc`om swggps/
1>
 
Phutf bucmg tf`oe`om khucd `ougokg kr`i`oac lust`kg`o tfg W[/ @t supphrts phpucat`hobasgd kr`i`oactfghr`gs c`eg tfg dgbuoegd –supgrprgdathr’ tfghryh tfg 100:s# wf`kf kca`igd tfat carmg phpucat`hosh yhuom igo khotr`butgd th tfg r`sg h ihrg kr`i`oacs wfh whucd khii`t gvgr ihrg v`hcgot kr`igs/@t rgsuctgd `o tfg `okrgasgd phc`k`om h yhuom Bcake aod Cat`oh igo `o tfg W[/
1=
Dggosg stratgm`sts usg tfg khokgpt as a rat`hoacg hrkhot`ougd W[ i`c`tary `otgrvgot`hos `o tfg I`ddcg Gast/@o a iggt`om ho W[ Dgpartigot h Dggosg spgod`omhr 2:12# tfg [gkrgtary h tfg Ariy statgd tfat tfg–yhutf bucmg kao krgatg a phpucat`ho h uogipchygd#d`sgoraokf`sgd `od`v`duacs suskgpt`bcg th gxtrgi`sttgakf`oms tfat tfrgatgo stab`c`ty aod sgkur`ty/’
16
 [ukkgssuc phc`ky aod prhmrais iust `ostgad trgatyhuom pghpcg as pghpcg# aod oht as a khfhrt dgogdby amg/ Tfgy sfhucd bg basgd ho tfg rgkhmo`t`hotfat yhuom pghpcg khig rhi a w`dg raomg h bakemrhuods# sgxuac hr`gotat`hos# mgodgrs# rak`ac aod gtfo`k`dgot`t`gs# phc`t`kac bgc`gs# aod gkhohi`k kcassgs/ Zrhmrais iust rgspgkt aod advhkatg hr aod w`tf yhuompghpcg# `o acc tfg`r khipcgx`ty# aod rglgkt assuipt`hosh yhutf vhcat`c`ty/ N`oaccy aod uct`iatgcy# prhmraissfhucd rglgkt acari`st prhcgs tfat uodgri`og yhuompghpcg‐s `otgmr`ty aod r`mfts/

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