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Report Final Colorado 10-3-2012

Report Final Colorado 10-3-2012

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Published by Doug Kaplan
Gravis Marketing Colorado Poll. President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney.
Gravis Marketing Colorado Poll. President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney.

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Published by: Doug Kaplan on Oct 06, 2012
Copyright:Attribution Non-commercial

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12/21/2012

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   V  e  r  y   l   i   k  e   l  y   O   b  a  m  a   L   i   k  e   l  y   O   b  a  m  a   S  o  m  e  w   h  a   t   l   i   k  e   l  y   O   b  a  m  a   U  n   d  e  c   i   d  e   d   S  o  m  e  w   h  a   t   l   i   k  e   l  y   R  o  m  n  e  y   L   i   k  e   l  y   R  o  m  n  e  y   V  e  r  y   l   i   k  e   l  y   R  o  m  n  e  y
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
   %   o   f   T  o   t  a   l
4.8%1.0%3.7%41.2%43.2%4.1%2.0%Presidential Race, Oct 3 - 4
   V  e  r  y   l   i   k  e   l  y   O   b  a  m  a   L   i   k  e   l  y   O   b  a  m  a   S  o  m  e  w   h  a   t   l   i   k  e   l  y   O   b  a  m  a   U  n   d  e  c   i   d  e   d   S  o  m  e  w   h  a   t   l   i   k  e   l  y   R  o  m  n  e  y   L   i   k  e   l  y   R  o  m  n  e  y   V  e  r  y   l   i   k  e   l  y   R  o  m  n  e  y
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
   %   o   f   T  o   t  a   l
4.3%2.1%2.5%45.6%43.4%1.4%0.7%Presidential Race, Sep 25
 
Colorado Results
For 10/3/2012 – 10/4/2012
Executive Summary
Following the debates, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm conducted a survey of 1,438 likely voters in Colorado on October 3
rd
– October 4
th
regarding their likely vote for agiven presidential candidate. Of the 1,438 that began the survey, 1,285 gave a responseregarding their preference for president. The poll carries a margin of error of 2.8%.Romney’s lead is a reversal from the September 25
th
poll, where Obama was ahead 50.2% to
Contact: Dou Kalan, 407-242-1870
1Thomas Young, Ph.D.
 
 45.5%. What happened? In terms of the numbers, Obama saw a decrease of 4.4% among “Verylikely Obama” voters, an increase of 1.2% among “Likely Obama” voters, and a 1.1% decreasein “Somewhat likely voters”. On the other side, Romney saw a 0.2% decline in “Very likelyRomney voters,” a 1.3% increase among “Somewhat likely Romney” voters and a 2.7% increaseamong “Likely Romney” voters. Overall, it looks as if the debate shifted voters more away fromthe “very likely” category towards center. Interestingly, the percentage of “Undecided” wentfrom 4.3% to 4.8%. A full reporting of the results and cross tabulations follows.
Results Summary
Presidential race Percent of total
Very likely Romney 43.2%Very likely Obama 41.2%Undecided 4.8%Likely Romney 4.1%Likely Obama 3.7%Somewhat likely Romney 2.0%Somewhat likely Obama 1.0%
Presidential race overall
Romney 49.4%Obama 45.9%Other 4.8%
Political affiliation
Other 39.8%Republican 31.9%Democrat 28.3%
Race
White 80.1%Hispanic 8.6%Black 5.9%Other 5.4%
Religious affiliation
Other Christian 44.3%Other 30.1%Catholic 20.3%Jewish 3.0%Muslim 2.3%
Age group
30-49 41.0%50-64 29.5%18-29 14.8%65+ 14.7%
2Thomas Young, Ph.D.
 
 
Gender
Men 49.2%Women 50.8%
Approve of Obama's job performance?
Disapprove 50.9%Approve 40.5%Other 8.6%
Who's better at managing $1 million?
Romney 53.5%Obama 34.6%Unsure 11.9%
U.S. on right track?
Wrong 53.5%Right 36.8%Unsure 9.8%
Survey Questions
1. Are you registered to vote? (Yes, No)No crosstabs available for this question because if an individual answered no, the questionnairestopped.2. How likely are you to vote in this year’s presidential elections? (Very unlikely, Unlikely,Somewhat unlikely, Somewhat likely, Likely, Very likely)Reported results only include somewhat likely, likely, and very likely voters.3. In which party are you either registered to vote or do you consider yourself a member of?(Democrat, Republican, independent or minority party)
Presidential race overall
Romney 49.4%Obama 45.9%Other 4.8%
4. What race do you identify yourself as? (White/Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian,Other)
Race
White 80.1%Hispanic 8.6%Black 5.9%Other 5.4%
3Thomas Young, Ph.D.

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