continuing scal discipline o the British government, it is unlikely that things will improve much inthe near term despite the more aggressive monetary policy now under way.Next up is my analysis o the Japanese economy. I note that Japan has been on something o aroller coaster, alternating rom recession in 2011, to strong growth in the rst quarter o this year, tothe possibility o another downturn. I look at the actors that will determine whether Japan man-ages to attain steady growth. Tese include external demand in Europe and China, reconstructionspending, a newly aggressive monetary policy, and whether or not Japan enacts a large tax increase.In our next article, Pralhad Burli looks at the slowdown in India, which has been worse thanmany analysts expected. Pralhad examines the actors that are inhibiting a quick recovery or theIndian economy. Uncomortably high ination and a steady decline in the value o the rupee have prevented the central bank rom implementing an easier monetary policy. Furthermore, external headwinds and the government’s ailure to imple-ment market-riendly reorms are taking their toll on business sentiment in India.In my analysis o Russia’s economy, I note that there are actually some posi-tive actors inuencing the economy. Tese include strong consumer demand,historically low ination, and increased government spending on inrastructure.Unortunately, these actors are likely to be overwhelmed by negative inuencesthat will cause growth to decline in 2012 and 2013. Te most important actors arethe recession in Europe, the slowdown in China, and the decline in the price o oil. In addition, both domestic and external uncertainty are undermining invest-ment, thereby hurting longer-term growth prospects.Finally, in my discussion o Brazil, I note that the country is experienc-ing a considerable slowdown this year largely owing to deceleration o externaldemand. Te global situation has also led to a reversal in the direction o Brazil’scurrency, creating problems or capital accumulation and ination. On the otherhand, Brazil continues to experience strong consumer demand. However, highlevels o debt and deault threaten to slow the consumer boom. Finally, monetary policy has eased considerably, setting the stage or an economic rebound in 2013.
Dr. Ira KalishDirector o Global EconomicsDeloitte Research
Global Economic Outlook
published quarterly byDeloitte ResearchEditor-in-chief
Pralhad BurliAlexander BörschCarl SteidtmannIan Stewart
350 South Grand StreetLos Angeles, CA 90013Tel: +1 213 688 email@example.com
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