TO: FROM: DATE: RE:

Interested Parties Paul Harstad and Mike Kulisheck October 8, 2012 Elizabeth Warrens Opens Up Significant Lead in Massachusetts

Elizabeth Warren has opened up a significant lead in the Massachusetts Senate race, according to our recent survey. Fully 50% of voters support Elizabeth Warren versus 44% for incumbent Scott Brown the first time either candidate has reached the 50% threshold in our polling this year. In early August, our survey had Elizabeth Warren narrowly trailing by 44% to 47% for Brown. This new survey and recent public polls clearly confirm an unmistakable trend in Warrens favor. Another intriguing result suggests that Warren has a higher vote ceiling than Brown. Besides the 50% now supporting her, an additional 6% of voters say there is a fair chance they might support Warren for a total prospective vote of 56%. In the case of Brown, besides his 44% vote, an additional 4% of voters say there is a fair chance they might support Brown for a total prospective vote of 48%. Further underscoring the momentum in Warrens favor are a pair of survey questions that are key leading indicators. When asked if they are more or less likely to vote for Warren based on what they have seen or heard in the past few weeks, a 47% plurality of voters say they are more likely to support Warren versus 42% less likely a net differential of +5% in her favor. However, the result is reversed in the case of Scott Brown. Just 39% say they are more likely to vote for Brown based on what they have heard lately, versus 48% who say they are less likely to vote for him a net differential of -9% against Brown. This is a revealing contrast that shows the swing in voter sentiment from Brown to Warren, and rarely do we see a less likely result as high as 48%. This movement toward Warren and voters souring on Brown clearly indicates that the Massachusetts electorate is alienated from Browns recent tactics and TV ads. The bottom line is that this Senate election is not over, but momentum counts heavily in campaigns and Elizabeth Warren has become the clear favorite in Massachusetts. The Massachusetts survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research among a crosssection of 602 likely voters by telephone from October 2 to 4, 2012. The results are subject to a statistical margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 4.0%. Harstad Research is a longtime pollster for Barack Obama and five U.S. Senators, including neighbor Rhode Islands Senator Jack Reed.