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To: Fr: Date: Re:

Interested Parties Pete Brodnitz October 5, 2012 Recent General Election Polling

The results of our recent October poll of likely 2012 general election voters in Nevadas 3rd Congressional District show Oceguera in a strong position to win this November. President Obama Leads Romney By 2% President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 2% (49% Obama, 47% Romney, and 4% undecided). If the election for President were held today, for whom would you vote?

Difference Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney Dont know

+2 49 47 4

Oceguera Is Closing The Gap; The Race Is Now In Single Digits John Oceguera is closing the gap between him and Joe Heck. In April, Oceguera trailed by 20% (29% Oceguera, 49% Heck), but now trails by just 5% (40% Oceguera, 45% Heck). If the November election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were for whom would you vote? (IF DONT KNOW) Which candidate do you lean toward? April 2012 October 2012 Difference -20 -5 Democrat John Oceguera 29 40 Republican Joe Heck 49 45 Independent American Party Tom 5 8 Jones Another candidate (Vol.) 3 2 Dont Know 14 5

NV-03 Oceguera For Congress

Oceguera Has More Than Tripled His Name ID Oceguera has tripled his name ID (the percentage of people who know enough about a candidate to form an opinion them) since our April poll, but Heck still has a 31% name ID advantage. As Oceguera continues to communicate with voters, his name ID will increase.
Oceguera April October (Oct 2012 2012 2012 April 2012) Name ID 15 48 +33 Heck April October (Oct 2012 2012 2012 April 2012) 74 79 +5

Oceguera Leads By 8% Among Voters Who Know Both Candidates Among voters who can form an opinion of both candidates, Oceguera leads by 8% (49% Oceguera, 41% Heck). This means that as voters get to know Oceguera his support will continue to increase. Knows Both Candidates +8 49 41 7 1 2

Difference Democrat John Oceguera Republican Joe Heck Independent American Party Tom Jones Another candidate (Vol.) Dont Know

Oceguera Also Has Advantages With The Remaining Undecided Voters Of the remaining undecided voters in the Congressional race (5% of the electorate), Obama has a 32% advantage over Romney (57% Obama, 25% Romney, and 18% undecided).

This report covers the results of our survey of 400 likely general election voters district-wide. The interviews were conducted October 1-3, 2012. The margin of error for overall results of is 4.90%. BSGs clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jeff Merkley (OR), Senator Jim Webb (VA), Congressman Tim Walz (MN) Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia. Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named Pollster of the Year by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work helping turn Virginia from Red to Purple.

NV-03 Oceguera For Congress